Well, even if Obama loses, it doesn’t mean the polls are wrong. We’re just racist. *shrugs* Not sure how that works out, but that’s the vibe I’m getting from hardcore Obama supporters in the real world.
I think the polls are B.S., people. I think Mac’s chances are far better than a lot of us are thinking lately. Think about it: Obama’s wildly outspending McCain — he’s flooding TV and radio with ads, yet it’s still not happening to him.
Also, re ACORN — if the left is as confident about Obama as they say they are, why is ACORN trying to steal the election? If victory is inevitable, why taint it with inevitable accusations of voter fraud?
Demoralization — that’s Obama’s game, that’s the media’s game, and I have a feeling that such is the game of some of the pollsters: they are trying to get McCain supporters to QUIT. They want us to believe an Obama victory is a done deal, so why bother sending money to McCain or the RNC, or, for that matter, even voting for Mac on election day?
It’s B.S., people — chin up.
By the way, check this out, and read the whole thing — it addresses a lot of what I think many of us are thinking lately:
Actually, Elena, that link is tailor-made for you — there’s a whole section on the racism thing that’s going on right now in the campaign.
Part of media’s love of polls is that polls create dramatic tension which brings news consumers back to media sources again and again. The consumers are monitoring the tense competition.
The unreliability of polls means the “competition” is a manufactured competition – like the manufactured competition of “American Idol” or “Dancing With the Stars”. Instead of judging singers’ or dancers’ chances with our own eyes, we judge politicians’ chances via eagerly searching out the latest semi-accurate poll results.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I used to say McCain had a solid chance to win. Here’s why I now predict McCain will win:
In the final days of 2000 Election: Gore closed like a house afire. I supported GWB. I was shocked, in the last days, at how GWB and Rove could not diminish the rising flames. I concluded that late deciding voters trusted Gore’s resume of accomplishment more than GWB’s resume of accomplishment. There was also comfort with “the devil you know….” I concluded that late deciding voters were looking for someone to trust.
Obama has little resume of accomplishment by which voters may know and trust him. Early deciding voters are comfortable with Obama’s words and demeanor. Late deciding voters are more nervous. For them, trust is a more significant issue. They will give more weight to Obama’s empty resume, and less weight to Obama’s words and demeanor. This is why I predict McCain will win.
Other examples:
Hillary was strong late in the primaries. Voters trusted her resume more than Obama’s.
Reagan never opened his lead until the final week. Late deciding voters trusted him to turn things around more than they trusted Carter.
Ford closed late. Late deciding voters trusted his resume more than Carter’s words and demeanor.
Folks, it’s far from over.
The GOP’s got a renowned ground game, and statistical models factor-in the enthusiasm in the party base. Palin’s done that for the GOP, despite the hand-wringing we’re now seeing:
That’s Ross Douthat. My own analyses, factoring-out the Wall Street crash, sees McCain winning a plurality of the popular vote. Given all the other wierd things that could happen this year, especially in the battleground states, I think that those Dems who’re overconfident are killing themselves.
The thing that is worrying me right now is that I’m expecting violence after the election, especially if Obama loses.
Big Media (I refuse to call them “mainstream” any more) has been pushing Obama’s inevitable victory all year long, in addition to all the polls showing him with a comfortable lead.
If he loses on Election Day, I think a lot of inner-city blacks will go ballistic. They will jump to the conclusion that the Republicans “stole” the election (projection?).
If that happens, Big Media will literally have blood on their hands, caused by their raising unrealistic expectations.
But, hey, the riots will be good for ratings.
/cynic off
Oh, right!
“Vote for Obama, or they may be riots”.
“Besides, the Europeans want us to”.
THAT should fly /cynic probably still on
Paul Gordon:
Either you misunderstood me or I’m misunderstanding you.
I don’t support Obama in any way, shape, or form. He absolutely terrifies me.
What I was trying to say is that the media has been raising expectations of Obama supporters so much that if/when he loses, some of his supporters are going to come unglued. And it will be the media that will have blood on its hands.
“Vote for Obama, or there may be riots”. Some of his supporters are definitely pushing that meme. The Philadelphia Daily News a month or so ago, and even James Carville more recently. Classic Communist intimidation tactics.
But I fear the riots will be real, and caused by unrealistic expectations.
Ricki, perhaps we DO misunderstand each other.
More likely, I was wrong in losing my temper, over coming across that concern (in other places as well in your comments).
For that, Sir, I apologize.
He DOES scare the Hell out of me; at best I think he might be a replay of Jimmy Carter, at worst I just hope the checks and balances limit the damage he can do until 2010 when the entire House and a third of the Senate are up again.
Don’t forget how popular Bill Clinton was, but that didn’t stop the Dems from quickly losing both Houses of Congress.
I did a poor job of saying that even with the possibility of riots, I’m still voting for McCain/Palin.
I simply cannot let that worry be a deterrent.
Follow up: “even James Carville” ?
Sheesh!.
often feel like throwing something at the TV when he is on, but I never expected him to go that low.
Hell, if there are riots, it won’t be the end of the world. We’ve had riots before, and we’ve dealt with them. Regardless, fear of civil unrest in the event of a legitimate McCain/Palin win isn’t keeping me up nights.
As I said above, I think the polls are bogus — I think there’s a lot of funny stuff going on right now. Demoralization is a POWERFUL weapon, and that’s what McCain/Palin supporters are up against: the media want us to GIVE UP. Well, don’t buy their B.S. — don’t buy the enemy’s propaganda, keep your chins up, talk to friends and family who are genuinely on the fence, donate money and/or time, and get out the vote!
No problem, Paul. In the blog comment format things like tone of voice and figures of speech are lost, and meanings that would be obvious in a face-to-face conversation can easily be misinterpreted.
Also, I never claimed to be a good writer. 🙂
No, I won’t let my worries affect my vote, either. An Obama loss may lead to riots in the cities, but the consequences of an Obama win will be far, far worse than that.
Sorry this is kind of an emergency off-topic post and comes from a very credible source, a friend of mine just told me that he was approached in the library by an Obama supporter offering 150 dollars cash if he would contribute 150 via his debit card to Obama’s website.
This is obviously unethical, but is it any violation of the law is my question?
I ran into a friend this evening in Manhattan: excited, festooned with Obama buttons, riding her bike home. Eyes glowing with excitement.
“I just got back from volunteering for Obama,” she exclaimed. “I’m so psyched! The Bowery Hotel has opened its entire second floor to the campaign — you should see it. There are 200 people there working the phone banks!”
“No kidding?”
“I didn’t make the calls myself– I just did data entry all day. Data entry! and I’ve never been so thrilled to help out in a cause!! My friend Amy said she was going to Ohio to help out, and I said, ‘Man, can I help you out with some money, or something?’ and she said, ‘No, but you can consider going to the Obama HQ and volunteering your time.’
“She was right, you know. So I went. I HIGHLY recommend it.”
“So,” I said, “are they calling people in New York?”
“Oh, no,” my friend said, “they’re calling people in Pennsylvania, and tomorrow in Ohio.”
I smilingly told my ecstatic friend that I was running late and had to go. But as I went, I had a mental image: one of hundreds of thousands of Obama-bots, all over the country, volunteering their time in glassy-eyed excitement, calling people in all the battleground states. It’s overwhelming. These people think Obambo is fucking icon, for chrissake. As in “religious.”
Check the NPR website for the article on “Camp Obama.” About their worker cadre Training Camp: teaching the young comrades Alinsky’s Rules, no doubt.
IOW, we are up against a MONSTER MACHINE. A juggernaut, fuelled by an obscene amount of money and a scary, cultlike adoration of the Dear Leader.
Strap on your servomitts and prep for battle.
Another proof of what I said several days ago: statistics is VERY sensitive to minor details of procedure and underlying assumptions about total population from which samples are extracted. Gallup is the most professional polling agency, because it makes its methodology public and its assumptions explicit and transparent. Models used reflect past experience; which of them, if any, are applicable to present situation, is everybody’s guess. Bad weather in election day, for example, can influence turnover dramatically, and different voters groups react to such unpredictable events differently, what can be a decisive factor in a close race.
I don’t trust polls, never have. There is way too much room for error if one is trying to conduct an honest poll. It’s like why socialistic central planning can not work: there is too much going on for any one person or organization to possibly know and account properly for everything. Again, that is if one is being honest and not intentionally weighting some factors more than others to get a desired result. Like, say, the MSM declaring an Obama landslide weeks before the election or the computer models predicting global warming. But, then my comments are proof positive I’m not one of the chosen, sensitive and super-intelligent people whom I should be taking direction from.
Results (30,396 votes)
4.0% Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party)
3.4% Bob Barr (Libertarian)
48.8% John McCain(Republican)
.3% Cynthia McKinney (Green Party)
1.3% Ralph Nader (Independent)
39.1% Barack Obama(Democrat)
1.1% Someone Else
1.4% I am Undecided
.6% None of the Above – I’m Leaving it Blank
By state, electoral college votes Obama 244 McCain 294
BATTLE GROUND STATES CURRENT RESULTS (EV=Electoral College Votes)
Italics Indicate a Change in State Since Last Report
Colorado Obama 45.3% McCain 43.6% 9 EV
Florida McCain 53.1% Obama 35.4% 27 EV
Iowa McCain 44.2% Obama 37.9% 7 EV
Michigan Obama 42.4% McCain 41.7% 17 EV
Missouri McCain 52.5% Obama 33.5% 11 EV
Nevada McCain 45.7% Obama 35.3% 5 EV
New Hampshire McCain 48.9% Obama 37.9% 4 EV
New Mexico Obama 47.2% McCain 44.7% 5 EV
Ohio McCain 49.7% Obama 37.7% 20 EV
Pennsylvania McCain 45.1% Obama 42.6% 21 EV
Virginia McCain 50.8% Obama 37.4% 13 EV
Well, even if Obama loses, it doesn’t mean the polls are wrong. We’re just racist. *shrugs* Not sure how that works out, but that’s the vibe I’m getting from hardcore Obama supporters in the real world.
I think the polls are B.S., people. I think Mac’s chances are far better than a lot of us are thinking lately. Think about it: Obama’s wildly outspending McCain — he’s flooding TV and radio with ads, yet it’s still not happening to him.
Also, re ACORN — if the left is as confident about Obama as they say they are, why is ACORN trying to steal the election? If victory is inevitable, why taint it with inevitable accusations of voter fraud?
Demoralization — that’s Obama’s game, that’s the media’s game, and I have a feeling that such is the game of some of the pollsters: they are trying to get McCain supporters to QUIT. They want us to believe an Obama victory is a done deal, so why bother sending money to McCain or the RNC, or, for that matter, even voting for Mac on election day?
It’s B.S., people — chin up.
By the way, check this out, and read the whole thing — it addresses a lot of what I think many of us are thinking lately:
http://www.zombietime.com/lefts_big_blunder/
Actually, Elena, that link is tailor-made for you — there’s a whole section on the racism thing that’s going on right now in the campaign.
Part of media’s love of polls is that polls create dramatic tension which brings news consumers back to media sources again and again. The consumers are monitoring the tense competition.
The unreliability of polls means the “competition” is a manufactured competition – like the manufactured competition of “American Idol” or “Dancing With the Stars”. Instead of judging singers’ or dancers’ chances with our own eyes, we judge politicians’ chances via eagerly searching out the latest semi-accurate poll results.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I used to say McCain had a solid chance to win. Here’s why I now predict McCain will win:
In the final days of 2000 Election: Gore closed like a house afire. I supported GWB. I was shocked, in the last days, at how GWB and Rove could not diminish the rising flames. I concluded that late deciding voters trusted Gore’s resume of accomplishment more than GWB’s resume of accomplishment. There was also comfort with “the devil you know….” I concluded that late deciding voters were looking for someone to trust.
Obama has little resume of accomplishment by which voters may know and trust him. Early deciding voters are comfortable with Obama’s words and demeanor. Late deciding voters are more nervous. For them, trust is a more significant issue. They will give more weight to Obama’s empty resume, and less weight to Obama’s words and demeanor. This is why I predict McCain will win.
Other examples:
Hillary was strong late in the primaries. Voters trusted her resume more than Obama’s.
Reagan never opened his lead until the final week. Late deciding voters trusted him to turn things around more than they trusted Carter.
Ford closed late. Late deciding voters trusted his resume more than Carter’s words and demeanor.
Folks, it’s far from over.
The GOP’s got a renowned ground game, and statistical models factor-in the enthusiasm in the party base. Palin’s done that for the GOP, despite the hand-wringing we’re now seeing:
http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/what_is_the_conservative_cocoo.php
That’s Ross Douthat. My own analyses, factoring-out the Wall Street crash, sees McCain winning a plurality of the popular vote. Given all the other wierd things that could happen this year, especially in the battleground states, I think that those Dems who’re overconfident are killing themselves.
The thing that is worrying me right now is that I’m expecting violence after the election, especially if Obama loses.
Big Media (I refuse to call them “mainstream” any more) has been pushing Obama’s inevitable victory all year long, in addition to all the polls showing him with a comfortable lead.
If he loses on Election Day, I think a lot of inner-city blacks will go ballistic. They will jump to the conclusion that the Republicans “stole” the election (projection?).
If that happens, Big Media will literally have blood on their hands, caused by their raising unrealistic expectations.
But, hey, the riots will be good for ratings.
/cynic off
Oh, right!
“Vote for Obama, or they may be riots”.
“Besides, the Europeans want us to”.
THAT should fly /cynic probably still on
Paul Gordon:
Either you misunderstood me or I’m misunderstanding you.
I don’t support Obama in any way, shape, or form. He absolutely terrifies me.
What I was trying to say is that the media has been raising expectations of Obama supporters so much that if/when he loses, some of his supporters are going to come unglued. And it will be the media that will have blood on its hands.
“Vote for Obama, or there may be riots”. Some of his supporters are definitely pushing that meme. The Philadelphia Daily News a month or so ago, and even James Carville more recently. Classic Communist intimidation tactics.
But I fear the riots will be real, and caused by unrealistic expectations.
Ricki, perhaps we DO misunderstand each other.
More likely, I was wrong in losing my temper, over coming across that concern (in other places as well in your comments).
For that, Sir, I apologize.
He DOES scare the Hell out of me; at best I think he might be a replay of Jimmy Carter, at worst I just hope the checks and balances limit the damage he can do until 2010 when the entire House and a third of the Senate are up again.
Don’t forget how popular Bill Clinton was, but that didn’t stop the Dems from quickly losing both Houses of Congress.
I did a poor job of saying that even with the possibility of riots, I’m still voting for McCain/Palin.
I simply cannot let that worry be a deterrent.
Follow up: “even James Carville” ?
Sheesh!.
often feel like throwing something at the TV when he is on, but I never expected him to go that low.
Hell, if there are riots, it won’t be the end of the world. We’ve had riots before, and we’ve dealt with them. Regardless, fear of civil unrest in the event of a legitimate McCain/Palin win isn’t keeping me up nights.
As I said above, I think the polls are bogus — I think there’s a lot of funny stuff going on right now. Demoralization is a POWERFUL weapon, and that’s what McCain/Palin supporters are up against: the media want us to GIVE UP. Well, don’t buy their B.S. — don’t buy the enemy’s propaganda, keep your chins up, talk to friends and family who are genuinely on the fence, donate money and/or time, and get out the vote!
No problem, Paul. In the blog comment format things like tone of voice and figures of speech are lost, and meanings that would be obvious in a face-to-face conversation can easily be misinterpreted.
Also, I never claimed to be a good writer. 🙂
No, I won’t let my worries affect my vote, either. An Obama loss may lead to riots in the cities, but the consequences of an Obama win will be far, far worse than that.
Sorry this is kind of an emergency off-topic post and comes from a very credible source, a friend of mine just told me that he was approached in the library by an Obama supporter offering 150 dollars cash if he would contribute 150 via his debit card to Obama’s website.
This is obviously unethical, but is it any violation of the law is my question?
I ran into a friend this evening in Manhattan: excited, festooned with Obama buttons, riding her bike home. Eyes glowing with excitement.
“I just got back from volunteering for Obama,” she exclaimed. “I’m so psyched! The Bowery Hotel has opened its entire second floor to the campaign — you should see it. There are 200 people there working the phone banks!”
“No kidding?”
“I didn’t make the calls myself– I just did data entry all day. Data entry! and I’ve never been so thrilled to help out in a cause!! My friend Amy said she was going to Ohio to help out, and I said, ‘Man, can I help you out with some money, or something?’ and she said, ‘No, but you can consider going to the Obama HQ and volunteering your time.’
“She was right, you know. So I went. I HIGHLY recommend it.”
“So,” I said, “are they calling people in New York?”
“Oh, no,” my friend said, “they’re calling people in Pennsylvania, and tomorrow in Ohio.”
I smilingly told my ecstatic friend that I was running late and had to go. But as I went, I had a mental image: one of hundreds of thousands of Obama-bots, all over the country, volunteering their time in glassy-eyed excitement, calling people in all the battleground states. It’s overwhelming. These people think Obambo is fucking icon, for chrissake. As in “religious.”
Check the NPR website for the article on “Camp Obama.” About their worker cadre Training Camp: teaching the young comrades Alinsky’s Rules, no doubt.
IOW, we are up against a MONSTER MACHINE. A juggernaut, fuelled by an obscene amount of money and a scary, cultlike adoration of the Dear Leader.
Strap on your servomitts and prep for battle.
Another proof of what I said several days ago: statistics is VERY sensitive to minor details of procedure and underlying assumptions about total population from which samples are extracted. Gallup is the most professional polling agency, because it makes its methodology public and its assumptions explicit and transparent. Models used reflect past experience; which of them, if any, are applicable to present situation, is everybody’s guess. Bad weather in election day, for example, can influence turnover dramatically, and different voters groups react to such unpredictable events differently, what can be a decisive factor in a close race.
I don’t trust polls, never have. There is way too much room for error if one is trying to conduct an honest poll. It’s like why socialistic central planning can not work: there is too much going on for any one person or organization to possibly know and account properly for everything. Again, that is if one is being honest and not intentionally weighting some factors more than others to get a desired result. Like, say, the MSM declaring an Obama landslide weeks before the election or the computer models predicting global warming. But, then my comments are proof positive I’m not one of the chosen, sensitive and super-intelligent people whom I should be taking direction from.
But look at this!
http://www.congress.org/congressorg/headlines.tt
Results (30,396 votes)
4.0% Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party)
3.4% Bob Barr (Libertarian)
48.8% John McCain(Republican)
.3% Cynthia McKinney (Green Party)
1.3% Ralph Nader (Independent)
39.1% Barack Obama(Democrat)
1.1% Someone Else
1.4% I am Undecided
.6% None of the Above – I’m Leaving it Blank
By state, electoral college votes Obama 244 McCain 294
BATTLE GROUND STATES CURRENT RESULTS (EV=Electoral College Votes)
Italics Indicate a Change in State Since Last Report
Colorado Obama 45.3% McCain 43.6% 9 EV
Florida McCain 53.1% Obama 35.4% 27 EV
Iowa McCain 44.2% Obama 37.9% 7 EV
Michigan Obama 42.4% McCain 41.7% 17 EV
Missouri McCain 52.5% Obama 33.5% 11 EV
Nevada McCain 45.7% Obama 35.3% 5 EV
New Hampshire McCain 48.9% Obama 37.9% 4 EV
New Mexico Obama 47.2% McCain 44.7% 5 EV
Ohio McCain 49.7% Obama 37.7% 20 EV
Pennsylvania McCain 45.1% Obama 42.6% 21 EV
Virginia McCain 50.8% Obama 37.4% 13 EV
This is a revolting possibility.
DEMS GET SET TO MUZZLE THE RIGHT :: http://tinyurl.com/5rnkmk
In case it’s applicable, and ”me” having fun with Photoshop, enjoy:
http://i33.tinypic.com/21e9lj.jpg
A LOT of people early voting here (Houston), and I’ve read the same is happening all over Texas; more than twice as many showing up as expected.
More hopeful than ever that the “Silent Majority” I’ve mentioned shows up with a vengeance this year. Can only wait and see.