Tehran unmasked?
I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the balance of power in the Middle East. But I do read, and I can think.
And what I read lately has convinced me that, in the current Middle East crisis–which has so far stopped short of full war but might lead to one–all roads lead to Iran, even those that seem to begin in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine.
See what Omar at Iraq the Model has to say on the matter. Not only is he convinced that Iran is a main mover and shaker behind instability in Iraq (and who isn’t convinced of this? I think it’s one of the few points on which the right and left tend to agree), but he wonders whether the recent abduction of the Israeli soldiers was planned by Iran as a tactic to distract attention from Iranian nuclear ambitions and the fallout (pun intended) from that.
Omar also writes:
Those extremists do not understand the language of compromise and they do not believe in negotiating even if they declare the opposite. They want a war and I think they’re going to get one.
And Michael Ledeen–not surprisingly, since his béªte noire has long been the Iranian government–agrees:
The important thing to keep in mind is that both the Gaza and northern Israel attacks were planned for quite a while, which means that Iran wanted this war, this way. It isn’t just a target of opportunity or a sudden impulse; it’s part of a strategic decision to expand the war.
For quite some time Ledeen’s conclusion has been that there is no way to escape a showdown with Iran, and he predicts in this article that, the longer the delay, the more likely it becomes that the confrontation will be a military one–with, as he puts it, “terrible consequences.”
Ledeen’s solution? To bring down the regimes in Iran and Syria; he sees that as the task of the United States. But missing in his article is the answer to the question, “how is that to be accomplished, without a military confrontation and its ‘terrible consequences?'”
Austin Bay sees some possible ways the Iranian mullahs could end up weakened and discredited as a result of recent events (though not without some military escalation), if the following scenario plays out:
The relative lack of western criticism of Israel is an indicator. Apparently Israel has an opportunity to hammer Iranian and Syrian proxies. Israel may also escalate by striking Syrian intelligence targets throughout the region”“sending the message that supporting proxies can cost the supporter. Israeli escalation past a certain point escalation puts Tehran in a bind: if Tehran’s mullahs fail to react militarily they begin to look impotent. Promises of future bombs won’t suffice….
In the context of an on-going war with Iranian proxies in Lebanon, if Tehran’s mullahs threaten mass annihilation one too many times the Israelis could strike several Iranian nuclear facilities. This would not be a “pre-emptive strike” but a “deep strike” on Hezbollah’s deep pockets ally and supplier.
The diplomatic component of this scenario: the Israelis make the case that in the post-Saddam, post-Beirut Spring Middle East, proxy wars are no longer tolerated. The Iranians will not be able to respond to Israeli strikes in kind. They will be exposed as weak hotheads and they will have lost at least part of their nuclear investment.
As Bay points out, it’s a risky game. Tigerhawk offers his views on just what that game might be about (read the comments section as well). His main thesis is that Iran wants to be seen as the hand behind this, wants to be seen as the locus of anti-Israel anti-Zionist power, and is gambling that Israel and the US are too weak to oppose its moves. Tigerhawk believes that Iran may have underestimated how much it has alienated Europe recently, and has miscalculated.
I’m not pleased with today’s violence, and the possibility of worse to come. But a while back I came to the sorrowful conclusion that something of the sort may just be inevitable. Those of you who know my history can guess that I used to believe that negotiation alone could work to defuse the Israel/Palestine situation. But I see today’s events as part of a long chain of failed negotiations and dashed hope; one that began with Oslo, led through the 90s to the collapse of Camp David, and then to the horrors of the Second Intifada, and ultimately to where we stand today.
Those (such as myself) who used to believe in the power of negotiations and “giving peace a chance” in the region remind me a bit of my relatives who were Soviet sympathizers back in the early days of the 20s and 30s, before all the wretched excesses of Soviet power became known, back when Communism could still be thought of as an experiment that might somehow work out, and capitalism (especially during the Depression) as the failure. It was relatively easy to believe in the promise of Communism then; much harder to believe it now, at a time when only diehards keep the faith.
And the same is true for negotiations in the Middle East. With the launching of the Second Intifada, the mask of diplomacy was torn off, and the face of the conflict–in particular, the depth of the violence and hatred on the Palestinian side, and the futility of negotiations–was made clear.
With the election of Ahmadinejad in Iran, the same is true of Iran. No more masks; we know where we stand–although there are always going to be those who don’t believe that Ahmadinejad believes what he so clearly says.
I still profoundly hope there’s a way out of this without total war, if the regimes in Damascus and Tehran can be weakened by one of the more limited scenarios already discussed, or by some other sequence of events short of a major conflagration. But there’s no way out if it without force. And there’s no way out of it if we don’t see clearly that Iran and Syria are not seeking peace through negotiation, and if we don’t recognize their aims in the region.
And now I read (via Israellycool) that a Hezbollah missile fired at Haifa on Thursday evening was of Iranian manufacture. Israellycool asks the question, “Are we [Israel] going to go after Iran?”
I wonder what the answer to Israelly’s question will be, how much time will elapse before we find out, and what form such a “going after” might ultimately take.
Israel has two choices– destroy Iran’s nuclear program, or be destroyed. Their choice may also be ours.
Ahmadinejad is after a spiritual goal; his aims are not material. There is no reason for believing the 12th Imam will come back at the ends of times after the final jihad against the infidels — that is precisely the problem. Europeans remain baffled and insist that Iran is acting rationally for peaceful aims, just as they insisted that we could work out a “peace in our time” with Adolf Hitler and the National Socialists.
As Winston Churchill put it,
“If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a small chance of survival. There may even be a worse case: you may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.”
America and Israel are alone on this. I am a European and i belong to a large minority, which sees America as the main evil in the world. What should be stopped with military means is the American power. Iran and the Palestinians are a minor issue, since they don’t threaten Europe. Don’t say that the west should interphere in Iran. Europe doesn’t agree with America. It is purely an American and a Israelite affair.
Daan wrote: “Europe doesn’t agree with America.”
Most of world popular opinion (not just Europe) doesn’t agree with the USA either. If the USA goes to war, this time it will probably only have Israel as an ally (and maybe Britain, but even that is very iffy). The USA has succeeded in alienating most of the world by now.
And oh, by the way… neo-neocon wrote: “But I see today’s events as part of a long chain of failed negotiations and dashed hope; one that began with Oslo, led through the 90s to the collapse of Camp David”. The negotiations failed because what Israel offered was a Palestinian state criscrossed by areas of Israeli control, which could never be viable, and because in spite of promising at Oslo to stop building settlements in the occupied territories (itself a violation of international law), Israel kept on building settlements.)
The US military is already overstretched in Iraq. Military recruitment is down so much that the US military has had to lower its standards for new recruits recently. Now invade Iran and Syria as well in addition to Iraq? It’ll be a recipe for disaster. I hope good sense will prevail and the US will de-escalate instead of egging on the hawks.
Daan,
Excuse me, but Europe has been messing around in the middle east for about 200 years. It has exported its malignant philosophies: communism, nazism, antisemitism. The only reason the US and Israel are in the positions we are now in is because of European antisemitism and a world war that left the US as the only country standing to rebuild the devastation initiated by Europe. Do you really believe that the EU would exist if American troops hadn’t guaranteed that Germany would stay in its borders and the USSR would not be allowed to to take over the continent.
No one seemed to mind the US ensuring the flow of oil to power all the Mercedes and Renaults of Europe. No one minded when they were able to sell reactors to Iraq.
During all this time we have put up with the arrogance of your “intellectuals” with amazing restraint. Your willingness to redistribute wealth stops when applied to Polish plumbers. Your religious tolerance is applied selectively to those who believe as you do and to those you don’t take seriously. Perhaps you remember the Daubler-Gmelin offer to send a group of German theologians to the US to tell us what the Bible really means.
I can only assume that you are part of the large minority who knows little of history and only partakes of your own biased press.
Neither Daan’s or Nate’s comments are worth a hill of beans. The US has always planned and trained to be ready to fight a two front conventional war. Our military machine has not even warmed up yet. The ground forces have gotten invaluable experience, at a low cost, in counter insurgency warfare. Recruitment goals are being met, the dross is being burned out of an all volunteer force. Even the slightly lowered standards are miles ahead of the WW II and Viet-Nam standards. The worst problem is our insistence on spending money on what we still do well, logistics. Logistics is beans and bullets. Not pizza and soft ice cream. Once that’s balanced out. Things will be able to move to the next phase.
American’s have never much cared about world opinion for a lot of reasons and we don’t care much about it now. Too much of the world gets their view of the US from the froth that tends to gather on our seaboards and has no idea about heartland America. We have a tradition of citizen soldiery and the profession of arms. Now we have conventional weapons systems of surpassing lethality that allow even small units a punch out of proportion to their numbers and the well trained and motivated American Soldier. It’s taken us a while to learn the new lessons, it always does, but they are part of “lessons learned” now.
If you don’t understand the continuous feedback loop of “lessons learned” you can’t understand our military BTW.
Nate, you keep thinking in terms of “invasion”, ground troops, and taking real estate. That is so “middle of last century”. War has always been, “See them. Kill them.” Our combat systems can see a very long way, in fine detail and are electronically connected to many triggers, more every day.
I’m frustrated with being on the wrong end of my military service and envy those still in a position to be at or near the sharp end. And, practically every vet I know feels the same way. This is the military we always dreamed about.
As an addendum to the above comment:
There has to be a reason why the opposition feels that the only way to protect itself is to hide in the civilian population of women and children.
One is to be able to wave the bloody shirt of collateral damage. And, the second is that they know if a modern military can find them and see them they will die.
Yes, of course, but that’s not going to change any time soon. This is why, all the modern equipment in the world is not very useful against an enemy that is doing guerrilla warfare.
Ignoring this particular “lesson learned” will only draw the military deeper into a quagmire situation.
Nate, you still don’t get it Counter Insurgency warfare IS Counter “Guerrilla” warfare.
The day of Mao’s “guerrilla swimming is the sea of the people is over”, done, finito. Look at the tactics the Israeli’s are using in Lebanon, what the Third ID did in Iraq. You studied the wrong stuff. That’s why you’re a day late and a dollar short.
You keep hoping for a quagmire and don’t know how to do the calculus. You guys are hopeless, simply hopeless as analysts.
“And now I read (via Israellycool) that a Hezbollah missile fired at Haifa on Thursday evening was of Iranian manufacture. ”
ahh, I see. So the palestinians were justified after all in blaming the US every time an israeli missle marked “made in America” crashes through their home. Who new? And if I was a Palestinian with this type of logic I might even rejoice at terror attacks agains the US. hmmm. It all making so much sense now.
Daan:
“America and Israel are alone on this. I am a European and i belong to a large minority, which sees America as the main evil in the world.”
Well Daan, since America and Israel are alone in this, better learn to enjoy the new Euro-Caliphate. It may not mesh well with your vaunted socialism, but the faster all of you convert, the less painful the conversion will be for you.
Start growing a beard if you havent already.
Nate, the military expert: This is why, all the modern equipment in the world is not very useful against an enemy that is doing guerrilla warfare.
Oh, well, then — I guess we just surrender, do we? Or, hey, I know! Why don’t we “do guerrilla warfare” ourselves, since it’s so effective!? Huh?
The answer, of course, is that the bad guys not only don’t care how many of our women and children they kill, they’re trying to kill as many women and children as possible. And to that, our choice is either surrender or “go after” these butchers wherever they try to hide. That is, though we don’t try to kill the innocent, we can no longer allow this vicious enemy to use its own people as effective human shields. Guerrilla war is hell too — it’s time we faced that and determine to win it.
Sally, CI warfare is a bitch to organize and fight but the principles have been well known for years. Hell the Marines Small Wars Manual that finally distilled their experience from 1915 to 1940 is still one of the finest treatises ever written on the topic.
The US military has resisted it for years since it means the end of tank heavy divisions and classic maneuver warfare. It’s a war for NCO’s and junior officers not generals, no dramatic, sweeping Hail Mary’s to be had just slow, steady application of the principles by smaller units supported by larger ones. The application of some technologies, such as night vision and laser guided pinpoint munitions have made it a lot more precise in it’s military applications but over 60 per cent, I’d estimate, is still not putting steel on target.
And, it is a boatload less lethal to the civilian populations who are being used as shields or objects to slaughter for terroristic purposed. It means that the opposition has to step right out in front and actually do the slaughtering rather than relying on large untrained militaries, raining tons of ordinance to do the job. Also, a great deal of it is “Shadow War”, covert, small scale operations. Quick “in and outs” and training indigenous opponents as police and military.
The smarter elements of the Left have known about CI’s effectiveness for years and have always screamed the loudest about “secret wars”. It kills their beloved Che’s.
The USMC’s Small Wars Center of Excellence is here. The manual is downloadable but it is large.
I love the simple readable, old fashioned style of the writing. It was written not by academics, but professionals talking straight to their brother professionals.
It’s not the only book and it is mostly, now, a source of timeless principles that a commander has to fit to his own situation.
Insurgency and guerilla combat thrive in artificial environments. Oslo, Arafat, the U.N… pretty plastic stuff, as most anyone would agree.
The Israelis have decided that they aren’t in a political situation anymore – it’s survival time. They have already mobilized their largest “heavy” division; their airforce is always on war footing, ditto their navy.
Never again.
If the Syrian air force isn’t evacuated to Iranian airfields, it won’t exist by the middle of next week.
Ditto Mr. Assad… but he knows that if he leaves Syria for any reason, he’s never coming back.
I think the short term objective of the Israeli offensive is to destroy Hamas and Hizbollah where they live.
Second will be bringing down Syria’s government.
Third will be taking out Iran’s leadership and its nuclear facilities, or at least those they can hurt with conventional weapons.
All bets are off after Iran launches its first missile, though.
You guys are making to much of anti-Americanism. It is an ocean wide and an inch deep. If this was not the case, it would be impossible for Calderon, Merkel, Harper, Howard, and Blair to win elections.
That being said, when there are airstrikes against Iran, it will probably the Israel and/or the United States. No offense, but it isn’t clear to me how Hungary or New Zealand could substantially help us attain our objectives.
If Europe wants to oppose American and Israeli military power, like Daan suggested above, I recommend they stand up to the plate and send European military units to Palestine to help Hamas and Hezbollah drive the Jews into the ocean. Europe has had plenty of practice killing Jews last century, so it should be no sweat.
Well, played, Mr. Bowden, well played.
Join the dots –
1. The US wants to do…
2. The US gets the intel to prove it necessary.
3. The US “persuades” ROW it is right.
4. The US does…
This is the result of step two. And we all know how good and reliable US intel is, huh! Look at the job they did on Iraq!
This is part of step 3. Crank up the fear factor and the bloggers will pump for all they are worth…
Yes, Iran might be trying to develop nuclear weapons. So might any number of other countries; Sweden, Germany, Indonesia, Egypt all come to mind.
Yes, Iran has “reason” to support opposition to Israel. Iran’s rationale for that opposition would be pretty damned close to the rationale US uses for defending Israel.
Both Israel and US have stretched and extended the old definitions of “justified pre-emptive strike” to the point where it no longer has any real meaning.
None of that is “news”.
I will now wait to see how long it takes for the same rhetoric to start against Syria as a result of Hizbollah and the Israeli invasion (once more) of Lebanon.
“You guys are making to much of anti-Americanism. It is an ocean wide and an inch deep. If this was not the case, it would be impossible for Calderon, Merkel, Harper, Howard, and Blair to win elections.”
Calderon doesn’t seem to have won. Ballots were not properly counted, as reports show, and Lopez Obrador is going to win the recount which has been asked for.
Yes, Merkel won, but she is quite critical of the US in many ways.
Blair is increasingly shaky and won’t be able to complete the term.
Meanwhile, don’t foget that Prodi in Italy, Morales in Bolivia, Garcia in Peru, and Zapatero in Spain, all of whom are leftists and critics of US policy, have won recently.
Nate:
Obrador? Dream on…
I don’t think you are as keen as you think.
Aside from that, you’re a prince among men, lefty.
Thanks for the all the fish/laughs.
x
Nate, Who cares? Just remember, “When the chips are down, the buffalo is empty.”
The US will make it’s own foreign policy, not “Nate and His Friend’s Foreign Policy”, not “Foreign Policy That Respects the Tender Feelings of Certain Inhabitants of An Obscure and Powerless Antipodean Archipelago”.
It will make US foreign policy and if that includes a series of strikes against Iran then it will be a fiat acommpli and antipodeans can only pout.
Syria is isolated, an economy in shambles, a bunch of restive minorities; lots of Kurds; and if it can’t resupply the Hez, Iranian proxies, of little use to Iran. It is still servicing a huge debt to Russia. Can you say house of cards? I knew you could.
Iran is run by mad mullahs who are threatening to nuke… well lots of people. If a large slavering dog, advances on me, showing its teeth while it’s owner keeps saying, “Oh, he’s harmless. He just likes to do that to infidels.” The dog will be marked as high level, potential threat and left on the ground cooling to ambient. Nate and the antipodean are given leave to pout
You guys keep prating about “International Law” and “World Opinion”. The first doesn’t exist and the second doesn’t count. Deal with it.
Well, done, wasp.
I especially liked the part about the “Foreign Policy That Respects the Tender Feelings of Certain Inhabitants of An Obscure and Powerless Antipodean Archipelago”.
ROFL!
This is the military we always dreamed about
This is the war that the Vietnam Veterans have dreamed of obtaining and winning. They can redeem the useless sacrifice of their brothers in arms, if they make sure we win this conflict in the Middle East.
Guerrila warfare is not what most people think it is. Peope believe guerrilas actually win most guerrila wars, but in fact the occupation forces win most guerrila wars. And there’s a reason for that, but not if you have no knowledge of military science.
There’s some good analysis going up at blackfive, senescent. Try reading the comments there.
I’m glad America and Israel are alone on this, with our iraqi muslim allies. It’s so freaking annoying that the idiots and amateur generals always keep saying that if we combine forces, everything will be peachy. Combined military command, and combined US command, is reduced in efficiency by integrating useless and obsolete components called “European armies”. America is far more lethal and agile without people dragging us down with their obsolete equipment, techniques, tactics, and leadership qualities.
No American will die because the French refused to provide CAS.
The reason why the US Army looks overstretched in Iraq is because when you are used to looking at fat, ridiculous, and poxed out soldiers and formations, then seeing a lean, mean, fighting machine will make you think the latter is “stretched”. The US Army isn’t stretched, it is called “being in shape”. As in, proper fat percentage.
European armies move like a slug and hit like the Western wind. America looks “thin” because their muscles are conditioned. The American military is not a bloated up float like what China and Russia has.
Oh yea we are stretched thin alright, let’s test the media claims shall we?
We are on a principle of thirds concerning our deployments, 1/3rd there, 1 third ready to go back, 1/3rd resting and fixing their equipment. Meanwhile the Air Force and Navy are asking people to leave. Please google “fleet response plan”, in a nut shell that means that we can deploy six Aircraft Carriers in 30 days notice with two more to follow in 90 days. Any idea what six Carriers could do to a country like Syria or Iran?
I dont think you do.
Bottom line is we have all sorts of resources that can be used without ever putting boots on the ground.
Are we tired, yes. Will we go again, yes. Will we ever quit, No. Keep listening to the media. You can tell when they lie about the military, their lips are moving.
Ymar, thanks for the reference, but I’m going to pull rank on blackfive and hope he doesn’t take back his excellent T-shirt.
I wrote my first paper on unconventional warfare about the Chief Joseph Campaign, the second on Civic Action during the Huk campaign in the Philippines and the third on the Mau-Mau/Kikuyu matrix. I followed that up with a seminar for which I prepared a paper on the Malaysian Emergency. This was sometime around 1959-1960. I went on active duty in 1962. Imagine my specialty.
“This is the war that the Vietnam Veterans have dreamed of obtaining and winning.”
Yes, “dream” is a good word here. Dream on… Fighting two wars — in Iraq and in Iran/Syria simultaneously? No way that can be done without bringing back the draft, and that would be politically impossible to do for this administration.
Y’know, if you guys screamed your “comments” at a microphone and got them broadcast by Al Jazz Era tv, people would be hard pressed to tell whether it was Ahmadinejad or Y or the old wasp or OBL himself.
If it wasn’t so hilarious it would be damned serious.
NROFL
Nate:
There was a report on strategy page this morning that recruitment goals were easily met, largely because of re-enlistments.
Sounds like the Home Team is in good shape…ever hear of voting with your feet?
PS: Two Front War? No sweat…against jerks like these.
x
Nate, it’s not nice to take words out of context and then deliberately misquote them.
I also notice that both Nate and prob seem to be reduced to non sequiturs and deflections.
Both are firmly mired in incorrectly seeing the military as the masses of cannon fodder thrown into the fire by the imperialist bosses. They have no idea that there have been paradigm shifts of massive proportions not just in military technology but in employing military assets.
They are firmly stuck in some kind of mish mash of images from Platoon or Band of Brothers with little bits of Matthew Brady, Nintendo and video clips thrown in. Then when you add in the fact that they aren’t even real Marxists, just posers who’ve picked up another mish mash of a left wing oral tradition. They think they’re sk8r-bois because they know someone with a skate board or they have a cool t-shirt. “Excuse me sir, I want to buy that shirt with the two guns pointing at each other and the rose in the middle. I think it will make me look cool.”
I believe I have just had an epiphany. Here I am engaging a bunch of posers because I like spanking them and hearing them cry like little girls. Or, poking them with a stick just to see the same old regurgitations. That speaks ill of me and indicates that I could spend my time more productively elsewhere. Comments are the potato chips of the ‘Net; lots of fun, very little nutrition.
“See ya, wouldn’t want to be ya”, as one of my sons used to say.
You got to make it French looking, if you are accusing them of attempting to be French. Poseur, instead of poser.
Probligo can’t tell who is what on either side, that takes a bit of perception abilities which he doesn’t have.
Nate somehow believes it can’t be done, because there are so called limitations on American military deployments. The Japanese know all about limits, you should ask them. The Japanese when they were practicing how to throw an armored samurai without getting impaled on his sword, had to deal with lots of limitations. Nate should realize that limitations can be exceeded. The specifications for aircraft have green line limitations, and those can be exceeded, but not without consequence.
So in the end, it goes back to willpower. WIth enough willpower, a martial artist can break free of his limitations and achieve a higher level of ability. With enough willpower a weak nation can become a strong nation, a fearful person into a courageous person, and so on. Nate doesn’t believe America has enough willpower to exceed our so called recommended limitations. He has seriously underestimated the power and consciousness of the American people. Wars procede from misunderstandings, so let it procede. x something or the other
Ymar, you need to get a life too. This is not even virtual reality. I’ve looked at your profile and realized that I’ve got boots older than you.
Get some phsyical structure into your life. Work out, remake your self, find a dojo. Stop reading fantasy and start living a life.
Get some focus kid.
Adolf Hitler also thought that willpower would do the trick, and what happened: the inferior Slavic race of the communist Soviet Union defeated him. Willpower alone is not enough. However, i agree that the USA could very easily occupy Syria and Iran, even the entire Middle East. I am happy to be a European. I know that my taxmoney will be spend to stengthen the economy and not to waist money fighting some poor fanatics in one of the underdeveloped regions in the world. I prefer the European solution: try to establish peace by talking and if it doesn’t work, then let them kill eachother without us having to interphere. We wouldn’t have to pay money to help them and we will not have casualties of our military. I don’t understand the American fear. I would be more fearful about a waisted budget of 25% for the military instead of a few dead people due to islamic terrorism. I am not a socialist, by the way, just an opportunistic European.
LOL.
The USA could “easily occupy Iran and Syria”.
Yeah right.
By the way scentofawasp – you don’t have a clue what your talking about.
Not a clue.
Yeah a couple of strikes against Iran will make things just peachey.
LOL.
Stevie, does this pass for argumentation on the planet where you’re from? What part of ESAD don’t you understand?
” in spite of promising at Oslo to stop building settlements in the occupied territories (itself a violation of international law), Israel kept on building settlements.)”
Well, since Nate is going to keep pushing that line (which I initially thought of as not even worth bothering to respond to), I suppose I’ll post my links.
All settlement building activities were frozen by Israel in spite of the fact that the Palestinians launched attacks throughout the process that killed more Israelis than had been killed in the 15 years before. Only Netanyahu had the balls to finally end the farce and reject Oslo, lifting the freeze on settlement construction.
To some people, though, no Palestinian action can ever break any agreement they make. It’s just like how the MSM claims the “cease fire” between the elected Hamas government and Israel wasn’t broken by any of the terror attacks on Israel; only when Israel started launching attacks back was the “cease fire” broken.
Oh You Dear Euro Sophisticate, Daan, why is it that your gdp/person would have to increase by 40% to match that of the U.S., and that the disparity is probably instead even getting greater, not less? How will the irrational Kyoto protocols – a diasterous treatment for a non-existent disease – not aid to accelerate Europe’s decline?
But why even bother to respond to you rationally, when, quite simply, you do not think rationally? Only your fantasy world will persist, and it’s a very sick one, indeed – as proven, and even intended by your apparent death wish stemming from your obvious self-loathing.
If you think your arguments make any sense or are challenging to people like me, you are again very mistaken. It is only your [“potato-chip”] arrogance and falsity which I respond to, and your Vichy-type collaboration. So, may I be the first to wish you a well-deserved “r.i.p.” at the hands of your Socialist/Communist Master, and soon your Islamofascist Slavers.
Oh Daan = “What should be stopped with military means is the American power”, did you notice that you have just declared war on America? Again, r.i.p., Daan. You seem to wish it.
But we in America will again happily accept the escapees from your bigoted, anti-human systems.
How indeed are you going to form a Super Nation from all your allegedly already superior Countries? This itself is at best an act of desparation. Will your 900+ page “Constitution” protect everyone or instead only allow your complete control by whatever dictatorial Party arises to dominate you? Your wish will be fulfilled, Daan. We will not interphere.
Wasp, that’s not an argument, that’s just an old cantankerous BS line that needs to be dropped. Come up with a real argument next time.
Daan, talking to a Hitler instead of destroying him isn’t usually the best course of action.
The stupid New Zealander I can forgive. But Europeans of all people should know better.
“Iran is a main mover and shaker behind instability in Iraq (and who isn’t convinced of this? I think it’s one of the few points on which the right and left tend to agree)”
I thought that the US blamed Saddam supporters for the instability in Iraq. The it was Bin Laden and then it was the fault of Syria as i recall. Now it’s Iran. A cynic would say the cause of instability moves around depending on who the US want to demonise at that particular time. Call me a cynic then.
Lucy–
You’re a cynic.
Ahmadinejad, Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein — they’re all bad people. Iran openly supports the Hez for crying out loud.
Yet, some want to blame Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, and Israel for the violence coming from Muslim fundies, and not the Muslim fundies themselves. We might as well go all-out Noam Chomsky style and blame the West for the 9/11 attacks. Interestingly, the man just met with Hezbollah to denounce the Great Satan and the Little Satan just recently, so it is clear where the left’s sympathies reside.
All i did was point out the hypocrisy on who is getting the blame. How did you get all that from my few sentences?? Blame the west for the 9/11 attacks? Are you trying to goad me into mentioning the USA arming, training and funding the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan? Tut tut….Naughty boy Mr Bowden.
see you retards are not getting any better…
I very much hope that Israel is provoking Iran to strike before it gets its nukes. It’s likely the last chance to. Were Tehran and Damascus, and their governments, to vanish in one big puff, Israel would be the object of the world’s public condemnation and its secret gratitude.
I don’t think Israel provoked the hostage taking of their own soldiers. it’s the other way around.
J.H. Bowden wrote:
“Interestingly, the man [Noam Chomsky] just met with Hezbollah to denounce the Great Satan and the Little Satan just recently, so it is clear where the left’s sympathies reside.”
Find out for yourself what Chomsky did or say in Lebanon, instead of depending on hearsay. A report on Chomsky’s visit to Lebanon is here:
http://www.16beavergroup.org/mtarchive/archives/001889print.html
Daan:
“I prefer the European solution: try to establish peace by talking and if it doesn’t work, then let them kill eachother without us having to interphere.”
Pardon me, but it seems to me that the “European solution” is to sit on its ass and critique those nations that are doing all the world conflict heavy lifting. I can see how you’d prefer to do that instead of having any real convictions but your smug arrogance is annoying.
If you’re not going to participate in what may amount to as the defense of your own nation’s culture and liberties, at least you could do is do us a favor and stuff a cork in it.
“All i did was point out the hypocrisy on who is getting the blame.”
Did it ever occur to you that they
all might be contributing to the instability in Iraq, and the only reason it seems the blame keeps shifting is due to your fervent belief that there can only be one single insurgent group in Iraq at any given moment?
Fortunately, the US leadership recognizes that real-life situations are far more complicated than movie scripts.
Nate–
I got you beat. Check out an entire video here.
neo-neocon wrote: “And now I read (via Israellycool) that a Hezbollah missile fired at Haifa on Thursday evening was of Iranian manufacture.”
And should that justify an attack on Iran ??? Is that your point?
Well, how is this any different from those Arabs who blame the US because the missiles and arms of Israel are often US-supplied?
To Peden,
Did you know that words could be used to describe the reality? Maybe this is something you would like to try. It could help you in your life. Not that it matters, people can repeat self-deceit untill death. Death seems to be something you are preoccupied with.
Regarding Kyoto: It can’t be implemented. China, India and Latin America want to become as rich as us and the west is not prepared to give up wealth. So, we will all quickly finish all natural resources. Instead of reducing the production of goods, it would be better to spend lots of efforts in new technologies, something only Japan and South Korea seem to understand.
To Mallory,
Europe has atomic bombs. Internally, there are hardly any threats and externally also. Europe is one of the safest places on earth and i have great confidence that i don’t have to worry at all about losing democracy. The thing that concerns me most is the loss of wealth to China and India and the annoyance that the Indian population is growing rapidly. My opinion about America is that it is unrealistic. America is fighting something unimportant, but perhaps it is ‘the American way of life.’ Just fighting to have something to fight.
Daan, you wrote:
“The thing that concerns me most is the loss of wealth to China and India and the annoyance that the Indian population is growing rapidly.”
Can you explain why you are concerned and annoyed about this? I would like to know. (I’m Indian by the way).
Everybody will become poor, with this amount of people in the world. I know that in your country, there are more then 100,000,000 million people homeless with hardly anything to eat. I don’t want Europe to become the same. We already have to abandon our welfare state to compete. I don’t think it will be enough. The present government of my country, the Netherlands tries to make the strongest economy of Europe so we can be the New York of Europe. A rich country surrounded by poor countries. In Germany there are politicians who say that the poor people should be given up. Result: the socialists win the elections.
Daan:
“Europe has atomic bombs. Internally, there are hardly any threats and externally also. Europe is one of the safest places on earth and i have great confidence that i don’t have to worry at all about losing democracy.”
You mean France has nukes, none of which prevented over a hundred stright days of ethnic rioting. Nor does the mere presence of France’s nukes sufficient to protect your film makers, writers and government officials (especially in your country) from murder and assassination.
Tatterdemalian:
Actually it did occur to me that they may all be contributing to the instability but it obviously never occurred to someone up the chain of command because, as in the Iraq War build up, the reasons why keep falling by the wayside and new ones have to be thought up or it is just coincedence that it was Saddams supporters when trying to deny the influx of foreign fighters into Iraq then Iran meddling when the topic was Iran’s Nuclear facilites and Syria when it’s Hizbullah. All were unrelated of course and they all would of been mentioned together at the begining but we know what it’s like, the White House has been pretty busy lately and they just forgot maybe.
Daan — Europe is one of the safest places in the world?
I don’t think so. America now generally has lower rates of crime than Europe in all categories save homicide, but Europe is even gaining on us in that respect as our crime rates continue to plummet and theirs continue to skyrocket.
A Continent of Broken Windows
excerpt:
“The latest figures, scattered from 2000 to 2005, suggest that more assaults are committed per capita in England than in America, while Swedes, Norwegians, and Dutch experience roughly the same assault rates as Americans. Robberies (which involve force or the threat of force) are as common in England and the Netherlands as in the United States. Theft rates have surged ahead of the United States in Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, and Norway. Separately, auto thefts are now a European specialty, with Scandinavians, Brits, French, and Italians worse off than Americans. And the U.S. burglary rate is now lower than those in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and Britain.”
Funny, the article mentioned by Bowden does not provide or mention any actual sources for its figures. Further, it’s an article published in “The Weekly Standard”, right-wing ideologue William Kristol’s conservative magazine. Why should any figures it quotes be taken at face value, if it refuses to back it up with sources? (The standards for right-wing journalism seem shockingly low indeed — I thought it used to be taught in Journalism 101 courses that you have to provide sources and attribution for what you report!)
Adam’s argument assumes that someone like Adam can tell a credible source from an incredible source. He cannot. Therefore his logic fails, and hence his argument is rendered invalid.
This is why scholars always argue and take so long to come to a conclusion, they “always” disagree on what is “credible”. But scientists at least can experiment to get the same or different results. Can we experiment to see if Europe’s model gets higher crime than America’s model?
Lucy, the American people have beliefs and positions independent of the White House thinks they know or thinks we know.
Military philosophers and military science students already know that Iran, Syria, terroists, etc are all inter-related in Iraq much as gravity, electromagnetism, etc is related via force equations in physics.
We cannot make you understand the connections. You’ll have to spend about 5 years learning military science to be able to figure out what is what. It took me approximately that long after 9/11. And I had no prejudices hindering me. It will probably take you longer. I started by reading military history, going all the way back to ancient Greece and Sparta, and reading David Weber and John Ringo.
The few people that died in Europe due to terrorism doesn’t make me afraid, also the crime rate doesn’t concern me at all. These are minor issues compared to the economic transition of Europe. I think that these two themes will hardly have any significance in the coming elections this year in my country, the Netherlands. I have heard stories about the Second World War and what happened in my family. Compared to that, terrorism and crime are insignificant. what does concern me is my paycheck and the wealth of my family and friends or of the people in the town where i live. I don’t understand why America is spoiling all this money and energy in minor issues. I’ll begone now. Goodbye everybody.
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