On today’s open thread we have this question from commenter “Cornflour”:
From the beginning of the campaign season, I thought that nobody stood a chance against Trump, but I preferred DeSantis, and I thought he’d do much better than he has. He’s now regressed to irrelevance.
Does anybody here have a short explanation for his failure?
I’ll oblige, but it won’t be all that short.
First of all, Cornflour provides a not-insignificant part of the answer: “I thought that nobody stood a chance against Trump.” The GOP has a built-in frontrunner, and that’s Trump. He’s a former president, after all. But in the past when a former president has run for a second term it has almost always been as an incumbent. As an incumbent, the president tends not to have any viable challengers; although sometimes someone steps up to challenge him, that person usually doesn’t do very well.
One example of such a person was Ronald Reagan in 1976 when he challenged incumbent president Gerald Ford for the GOP nomination. But Reagan didn’t win that nomination. And how was he doing at this point in the race?:
In polling in June 1975, Ford led Reagan by 41%-20% in a large field, or 61%-33% in a head-to-head matchup.
And Reagan was an exceptionally strong candidate (as later history tells us), plus Ford was an exceptionally weak incumbent. He was the first unelected president, and didn’t really have much of a draw to voters except for the fact that he was the incumbent. And of course we know that he lost to Carter in 1976.
Today we have a somewhat unique situation in the GOP race. We have a former president running who is not an incumbent. But as a former president, he has a very large portion of the GOP vote already locked up. This devotion to Trump of so many primary voters on the right is not just because he was president, it’s because he also was – and remains – extremely popular on the right.
There are NeverTrumpers who supposedly are on the right, of course. And then there are people like me, who thought Trump did well as president and that from the start of his presidency until now he has been unjustly persecuted, but who feel he also has shown poor judgment in the last couple of years, and has been so tainted in the eyes of even moderate voters that the GOP would be better served by choosing a different nominee. In other words, we think Trump would be a poor candidate in the general.
The Trump loyalists disagree, to say the least. They disagree mightily, and they are numerous. They feel that Trump is owed the nomination. They want to show the leftist forces who have tried to destroy Trump that they cannot keep him down. The more charges the left throws at Trump, the more this group is determined to elevate him to the nomination.
How big is that group? I don’t know, but I think it’s a sizable portion of the GOP primary voters. Trump encourages this kind of personal loyalty and this kind of outraged support, as well as the idea that he’s owed something. In terms of justice, he certainly is owed exoneration. But that doesn’t make me feel he’d be a good candidate in the general. But lots of people disagree with me, and they will be voting in the primaries.
So Trump starts out with majority support among GOP voters, and that’s difficult and probably impossible to overcome.
But what of DeSantis himself? From the moment that Trump and his most loyal supporters got a whiff that DeSantis was thinking of running, the anti-DeSantis drumbeat began – on the right. I noticed it immediately in the blogosphere, and I wrote about it – for example, in this comment of mine from December of 2022. That’s a long time ago. Here’s an excerpt:
…[T]he campaign to discredit DeSantis is quite successful so far … considering how early it is in the game. I spend a lot of time looking at comments both here and at other blogs and media websites on the right, and it is amazing how quickly the anti-DeSantis message took off on the right side of the blogosphere. It utterly took over comments at Conservative Treehouse in almost no time at all – and that’s a blog with a huge following on the right, and there were well over a thousand comments on each of sundance’s posts about how awful DeSantis is. I saw a lot of it among Ace’s commenters as well – another huge conservative blog with a big following – as well as at Instapundit. It came to my blog almost instantaneously although certainly not as widespread, and many other blogs I looked at. Of course the left hates DeSantis, but what I’m talking about was and is all on the right and it followed Trump’s attack on DeSantis. I discussed some of the problem in this comment of mine. They were calling DeSantis “The New Jeb,” among other things.
It is still going on at a lot of popular blogs on the right. Just to take one small example, here’s a comment I saw at Instapundit just yesterday:
“DeSantis is the GOPes shitty simulacrum of Trump. He appears Trump like, hits the right notes on garbage wedge issues. When it comes down to the uniparty’s goal of selling out our country to people that want to cede our superpower status to China, he’ll be right there with them. Think of how shitty the GOP has been in practice, and that’s what a DeSantis presidency would be. He’s fully aligned himself with the Bush cabal, and I’ve seen enough pictures of GW hanging out with Obama and Clinton to know what that means.”
It got to the point where certain very popular blog comment sections were completely dominated by “DeSantis is Jeb” commenters. And that has continued, and it has been encouraged by Trump.
Before DeSantis challenged Trump, DeSantis was a hero on the right. Everything I’ve seen about his actions as governor in Florida has been bold, strong, and conservative. But I don’t think anything – and I mean that literally: anything – would change the minds of those GOP voters one might call EverTrumpers. They spread mostly lies or distortions about DeSantis, and the MSM – which wants Trump to be the nominee, as does the left, because they think he will be a weak candidate – gladly ramps up the volume plus adding the left’s own take on DeSantis as an evil villain who wants to drink the blood of everyone other than conservatives.
Then we have DeSantis himself. Simply put, he is not Trump. Nobody is – except Trump, and that has good aspects and bad. Trump is an unusually energetic and humorous candidate, a very entertaining man – that is, if you don’t hate him. He gives his supporters a kind of high, and is a lot of fun, and of course is perceived as a fighter. Neither the more sober DeSantis nor any other GOP candidate can compare in terms of those attributes, even though the traits may count for little in the general. But the GOP base has gotten addicted to Trump’s spark and his unique way of speaking and joking, as well as his obvious feistiness. Everyone else looks dull and wan in comparison.
Then there’s the issue of whether any GOP candidate could win in the general. Whether one believes fraud will prevail, or mere “rigging” of the election, or simply that the voters have moved too far left, the idea that the election is unwinnable by the right has taken hold among many people on the right. It might even be the truth; I don’t know. But that belief system doesn’t mean that voters shouldn’t be strategic when they think about whom to support for the nomination. And yet some use it as an excuse to not really even consider the general.
However, many people think Trump is the most likely of the GOP candidates to win the general, although I heartily disagree. I think they are living in a fantasy world, pumped up by anger at what’s been done to Trump and the need to avenge it. I get it, but I think the enmity against Trump is so vast and so widespread that he hasn’t a chance of winning. These people often say that, not only is Trump the only one who can win, but he’s the only one who can … fill in the blank: the only one who can drain the swamp, the only one who will fight. And yet I don’t think his track record on draining swamps when he was in office was good, and I think he commits a lot of unforced errors.
Finally, there is the fact that the campaign has hardly even begun. The first debate occurs in a month. Most people probably have seen little of DeSantis – or the other GOP candidates besides Trump – yet. But there are forces on both left and right who have made it their business to destroy DeSantis’ candidacy before the public gets to know him, and they are very strongly motivated and active. Obviously, DeSantis would need to counter those forces in order to get the nomination or at least increase his percentage of support. Time will tell whether that will happen, but he really hasn’t had much of a chance yet because it’s so early.
I don’t think that any candidate should be ruled out this early in the game, although lots of people would like people to think it’s already over for DeSantis (or RFK junior, or Vivek, or anyone else for that matter). And yet it’s in the interests of the left, the MSM, and the Trump loyalists to make people believe it’s already happened and they should turn away from DeSantis because he’s a loser. Never underestimate the power of propaganda to taint people’s perceptions.
The whole thing is sad and destructive. The coming election is exceedingly important, and this circular firing squad stuff is not going to help the right at all. But here we are.