Predicting election turnout
The predictions of the polls for this election are all over the place. Although in general a Republican win is expected, the scope and breadth of that win is highly disputed.
Liberal rags and bloggers say that the Republicans have peaked and that Democrats will stage a surprising resurgence by election day. They are trying to rally the troops, of course, and it might represent whistling past the graveyard.
Then again, they might be correct. Who knows?
Who knows? Why, the pollsters, of course. Except when they don’t.
Polls are always somewhat unreliable. It’s only ex post facto that we learn which ones were right and which ones wrong. But this year they are probably more unreliable than ever, because of that all-important variable: voter turnout.
Turnout always matters, and especially in off-years where it is usually low and therefore small variations matter even more. But in 2010, turnout is an especially wild wild-card.
We know that voter enthusiasm is higher on the Republican side, and we know that it will almost certainly make a difference. But how much higher, and how much difference? The gap is highlighted by this recent Gallup poll, the first this year to take into account likely voters rather than registered voters, and the results are shocking for Democrats and heartening for Republicans:
Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.
That’s not only astounding, it’s an outlier. The volatility of the polls is further reflected in the flux of the Rasmussen polling of likely voters: the Republicans have only a 3-point lead this week although they had a 10-point lead a mere two weeks ago.
What does this mean? It means that each side will fasten on the polls that are more encouraging to its own agenda. It means that polls are likely to keep changing right up till election day. It means that in general Republicans are ahead. And that’s all I can figure it means.
Polls are good at prediction, to a certain extent. But they are acknowledged to be flawed, and there is always a fairly significant margin of error that in close races can be determinative. This year I believe the margin of error is even greater than usual, because this year the mood of the electorate is profoundly different than in previous years—even previous “throw the bums out” years such as 1994.
There is a disgust towards both parties the depth of which I’ve never seen before. There are more entrenched incumbents at risk. The energy level of the electorate is stronger and more seriously angry. So pollsters, beware. The usual rules may not apply.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxJyPsmEask&feature=player_embedded
Christine O’Donnell ad
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra for President!
Unfortunately, voter fraud also needs to be factored into this. Considering how close a lot of the races are looking, this could be a deciding factor. And when it’s very close (within 1000 or less votes), it almost always goes to the Democrat.
If the Socialist rally held last weekend is any indicator, then the turnout among Democrats will be low. The Leftists will vote in high numbers but their numbers are only a fraction of the voting populace.
The Leftists will vote in high numbers and high frequency but their numbers are only a fraction of the voting populace.
FIFY.
The only people that should pay any attention to polls and their results are the folks running for public office, and their “special interests”.
Otherwise, polls are just meat for the media. Which always focuses on process, never on product: lots of chatter about who’s doing what to whom, who’s ahead/behind. Seldom, if ever, hard useful info about the candidates’ record and bios.
Occam’s Beard :
Even a diehard NY Yankee hater and citizen of Red Sox Nation as I am must suspend that attitude when it comes to Yogi Berra. While some may claim that his sayings are a consequence of lack of intelligence and/or education, he was a catcher. No good catcher is stupid. A doofus may accidentally come up with one or two such sayings. Yogi came up with so many sayings that one must conclude he made them up deliberately. His sayings enrich our language.
How many Pub seats in the House of Representatives come January? My prediction is 230. I hope for 250.
Gringo, I am ambivalent about the Yankees, but never liked the Red Sox. Their fans (present company excepted) tended wallow in self-pity about their World Series dry spell. (Talk to Cubs fans about dry spells.) Once the Sox won, these fans reversed polarity and became insufferable by gloating. Of the two extremes, I prefer the blubbing over the gloating.
And I won’t even start on that “Hub” business. /g
So what will be the October Surprise in this election cycle?
Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu.
Libby voter fraud is why I am sure the Illinois Senate seat is a sure thing for the Democrats. The Cook County ballots have already been cast.
The numbers will be very interesting, but the high profile victims among incumbents will be very, very interesting. Goodbye Barney Frank or John Conyers? Hello Republican senator from California or New York? Big names matter as much big numbers because their fall will act both as a cautionary tale to remaining incumbents and as chum to disatisfied citizens chomping at the bit for 2012.
Baklava Says:
October 5th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
That may be the first appearance of the phrase “I’m not a witch” in a political ad in modern times.
/Dang she’s cute.
Gringo, I am ambivalent about the Yankees, but never liked the Red Sox.
Nor would I try to convert you. It’s a New England thing. But yes, one can find a certain insufferable tone at times in Boston or in Massachusetts. Moreover, the worst drivers in the country are found inside 128. I spent the first half of my life in rural New England: my 8th grade class had 27 students. Given my bumpkin origins, I do not automatically worship that which is found inside 128- or 495, for that matter. But Boston is a beautiful city.
I maintain my allegiance to New England sports teams, though I no longer live there. In a certain sense, I have reverted back to the politics of my youth. When I was a child, Republicans were fairly common in New England, especially in rural areas. The Yankee values of frugality and leaving your neighbor alone were carried over into local government. Where are we today? Stop so much spending and stop the Nanny state. Old Yankee values.
[While the Saltonstalls and the Lodges may have been conceited snobs, rural Yankees were not. A local descendant of a Revo War hero from the same town was a town official,a dairy farmer, and a college grad. You can’t be a snob and shovel cow shit.]
Bridgeport Mayor Jasper McLevywas my idea of a Socialist.
Sign me on as a sewer Socialist. 🙂
Bob from Virginia
While extra ballots may have been printed, they haven’t been cast- not yet. From what I recall from reading about the Chicago “vote” in the 1960 Presidential election, Mayor Daley added phantom votes to the actual vote tally to calibrate with downstate results.
kaba Says:
October 5th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
I don’t know, but I sure am expecting one. There are so many possibilities to choose from.
1. Economic collapse. The more people become destitute and dependent on the government, the better for the Democrats. Another alternative may be an economic collapse after the election, where the Democrats and the media can spin it as a collapse of confidence caused by the Republican victory.
2. A massive terrorist attack. People who are stunned and bewildered may tend to rally around the established authorities. If the attack is really bad, it could lead to emergency declarations causing the election to be delayed or postponed.
3. Election-related violence and intimidation. It will be started by the Left, but the media can be counted on to spin it in such a way as to smear Tea Party supporters. Hey, it works in the Third World, which is where the Left is trying to take us.
4. Hacking into voting machines and other means of calling into question the honesty and fairness of the electoral process. File under “Cloward-Piven”.
The important thing to remember is that the Democrats don’t have to trick conservatives into voting for them. All they have to do is peel away enough moderate and apolitical voters, and this can probably be done with fear, uncertainty, and chaos.
Rickl: I’ll vote for your #3 and #4.
Frankly, I think a terrorist attack now — a foreign one, that is, not the Timothy McVeigh type — would gain votes for Republicans. They do have the reputation, mostly deserved, for understanding national security. President Obama would no doubt bungle the response, just as he did in re Deepwater / BP, Afghanistan (why on Earth did he go to such trouble to handpick a general, and then dither for months before deciding to ignore his advice?), and numerous other large and small crises.
We’ve already seen a fifth category, which by now is so commonplace that it wouldn’t be an October “surprise” — digging up last-minute dirt on Republicans. (See Dan Rather, Gloria Allred — what a great name! — and whoever it was that unearthed GWB’s drunk-driving record in October 2000.) I don’t think that’s going to work so well this time.
The Democrats are in full-blown panic mode, and rightfully so. But many of the ones who should know better Just Don’t Get It. (Why is President Obama scolding Democrats? Heck, why is he campaigning at all, with his popularity as low as it is?)
It’s gonna be an interesting November!
respectfully,
Daniel in Brookline
(who is so not voting for Barney Frank…)
For the first time ever, in the 6th District, up in northeastern Minnesota, Congressman Jim Oberstar appears to have some competition from a Republican. It hasn’t received much notice, and Oberstar sill has a sizeable lead, but no Republican has come this close in forever. I wonder if the same quiet phenomenon is appearing in other Democratic sanctuary districts?
In Washington Patty Murray has been running lots of TV ads since early September. Dino Rossi just got a couple of rather soft soap ads up this week. Yet Dino is one point ahead. Patty has all the money she needs, but it isn’t helping at this point.
In Snohomish County, the Everett Herald has endorsed Republican John Koster over incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen. That is equivalent to “Hell freezing over” in these parts. It is definitely a different election!
Gringo: Republicans are still fairly common in New England in rural areas. It’s just that there are fewer rural areas, and the cities are bigger now and therefore have more influence.
Think about what we’re seeing. Feingold trailing in Wisconsin by double digits in some polls? Nevada perhaps about to unseat the Senate majority leader? Boxer actually having to hustle to keep her seat in CA?
Yes, Virginia, we may really be on the verge of a historic rebuke of a tone-deaf and out of control political party, as well as a stern warning to those deemed to be the lesser of two evils this time around.
I wouldn’t bet on the Senate changing hands. But hopefully Dingy Harry won’t be around to run it, come January. And in 2012, over twice as many Democratic Senate seats as Republican seats will be contested.
I think I’m like many who read and post here. I’m almost afraid to be so hopeful about the mid-terms. Most of us were smart enough to see the writing on the wall in 1992 and in 2008 no matter how much we didn’t want to. And most probably foresaw the great political shift in power as it culminated in November of 1994, even though the results may actually have been even better than we expected.
I’m a little afraid to get any more emotionally caught up in the coming election than I already am, just because I know what a letdown it would be if the Dems somehow maintained control with far less damage to their standing than anticipated.
But dang! – every time I look at the wall lately, there’s writing on it. And it’s telling Democrats, even long-time entrenched ones, that their careers – as elected officials, at least – are almost over.
Only two words are necessary to put a crimp in any gloating by a Red Sox fan -Babe…Ruth.
If you like omens……
‘Presidential seal falls off podium as Obama speaks’
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20101006/D9ILSJE80.html
The Democrats in New York have rallied around Andrew “Knee-capping” Cuomo with a barrage from all guns: Ed Koch, who was the target of a homophobic attack by Little Andrew when Daddy Mario was running for Governor, nevertheless came out firing on Carl Paladino, the R. nominee. For having the temerity to attack the sainted (gag) Shelly Silver, no less. Who, as every New Yorker with an IQ above room temperature knows, has New York State by the tender parts and rules, RULES the legislature, especially since the downfall of Joseph Bruno, R.
So they’re running relentless, vicious attacks on Paladino, with the ugliest photos they can find, and Paladino is doing what ALL Republicans seem to do in these circumstances: he’s on the back foot, on the defensive. Which means you lose against these freaks. They keep the topic pinned where They want it (see the attacks on Meg Whitman over the b.s. about a housekeeper, for cripes’ sake), and the hapless Repubs never return fire on the Dims’ liabilities.
Didn’t any of these people take debating in high school? This stuff is elementary rhetoric.
Re Paladino: the Dims are actually attacking him as being — brace for it — “a capital insider”! While Prince Andrew of the Cuomo dynasty is a White Knight Outsider, of course.
Yeesh. But it works, because most of the electorate are idiots. Paladino has done himself some damage, too: shooting from the hip and not focusing his fire on the heart of his opponent. But with the media shilling nonstop for Prince Andy, it’s hard to make any headway.
God, I hate the Left.
Me too, Older. Me too.
neoneocon:
I will grant you that in the small towns, Republicans are not the endangered species that they may be in San Francisco, Boston, or Cambridge. However, even in the small towns there has been a change.
I looked at the Kennedy/Nixon 1960 vote compared to the the McCain/Obama vote for the smallest towns in my home county. Even back then, the larger towns mostly mill towns [small cities] back then- went for JFK. Almost all of the smallest towns went for Nixon. In the smallest towns in my county, there was a 11% drop in the McCain vote compared to the Nixon vote.
These are still small towns. None have a mayor.
and as i said, the timing of the laws going active will allow them to pretend that the republicans taking office are responsible for the pain they created before that ascension to the bottom.
and i forgot to add.
this hatred which will come after november as things hit, will be what whipsaws back the polity to obama in 2012… (under Obama Hillary… )