More candidates need to drop out…
…before the primaries really get going.
You can see what I mean from this recent poll of NH voters. Trump is way ahead—as “way ahead” is defined at this point, with so many candidates in the race. He’s get 22% of the vote. But Bush also gets 7%, as does Kasich (who is going absolutely nowhere, although not soon enough for me), with Christie at 5, Paul 5, and Fiorina 3. You get the picture.
The other major contenders (who should not drop out) are Carson at 11, Rubio at 11, and Cruz at 8. Trump’s scores have barely changed in NH in the last two months, and Carson has fallen. But Cruz and especially Rubio have climbed. If the race narrows down, I predict that major shifts will occur, and I’d like to see it happen.
NH is not a typical state, nor is it a state where primary polls have a good predictive record. But I think the situation there is not atypical of the situation in general in a great many other states.
I realize Kasich is betting the farm on a strong showing in New Hampshire and thus will not be dropping out. I realize Christie now sees an opening for his fledgling campaign now that there is a renewed emphasis on national security matters; thus, he is unlikely to drop out. But Paul, Huckabee and the remainders of the JV squad need to go. Yesterday
Many are staying in expecting Trump and Carson to make a mistake.
Trump’s already made several mistakes, but his fans aren’t leaving him. They need a viable substitute, probably Cruz.
I don’t understand why Carly Fiorina is doing so poorly. She would kick Hillary’s a$$ in the general.
Two things.
1. We have state primaries; not a national primary. I don’t like national polls as I think they are misleading.
2. In Iowa up to 80% of voters are not firmly committed to a single candidate.
snopercod Says:
November 18th, 2015 at 3:31 pm
I don’t understand why Carly Fiorina is doing so poorly. She would kick Hillary’s a$$ in the general.
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Scott Adams explained it.
Carly killed herself with the Planned Parenthood attack.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/129289732811/carly-fiorina-and-the-wizard-filter
What images pop into your mind when you think of Fiorina’s debate performance? Ignore the substance and even the technique for a minute. Just relax and see what images pop into your head.
I’ll tell you what images I got.
1. “That face” – which in my opinion is attractive but makes me tense.
2. A dying fetus with a heartbeat. On a table. Doctors are talking about harvesting its organs.
So on the wizard scale, Fiorina self-immolated. Worst wizard move of all time. Literally. You would be hard-pressed to come up with a worse set of visuals to wear as a pant suit.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/130269114086/one-on-one-match-ups-trump-persuasion-series#_=_
“Fiorina: HP failure. Lucent failure. And of course, the “face” which many men interpret to mean her angry-wife persona. Compare that mixture of failure and anger to Trump’s business success (so he tells us) and positive message about America.”
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Carly’s numbers cratered after her horrific gaff.
HRC would beat Carly silly with:
1) Carly’s HP, and Lucent record
2) Carly’s layoffs
3) Carly’s off shoring
4) Carly’s threat to wide open abortion
5) Carly’s never held office at any level
6) Carly’s too intellectual, too hectoring
Fiorina’s shot was to be VP.
That’s now likely to go to Cruz. (if Trump holds)
Rubio is too young, a cherub.
Carson is too White, can’t pull the Black vote.
That pyramid thingy is going to plop on him like a limestone pile.
It’s getting almost too late to stop Trump — who has glaring ‘issues’ — but who seems encased in Teflon.
I think Carly is fine. She just has less room to shine on the big stage, so her numbers hit a wall. As I said before, I would vote for several of the candidates and I don’t feel the need to play favorites.
I agree that more people need to drop out, but vanity being what it is, I doubt that’ll happen until the first few primaries occur.
P.S. The excuse that “polls are inaccurate” is plausible until the real voting starts. Kinda hard to make excuses after that.
As I write this, Drudge headlines a Breitbart exclusive about 8 Syrians caught at the Mexican border on Nov. 16. which follows another story about Syrians with fake passports caught in Honduras on their way here. Who wants to build a wall to protect us from illegals at the same time 29 Republican Governors are defying the administration over Syrian resettlement? All this while Obama dithers. What a perfect set up for a demagogue like Trump!