Post-debate polls
I’ve been curious to see some non-internet post-debate polls on the Republican side, particularly ones for primary states. Here’s a new one for New Hampshire:
One-in-four (26%) likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire continue to back Donald Trump for the presidential nomination. Ben Carson (16%) places second and Marco Rubio (13%) comes in third, followed closely by John Kasich (11%). Other contenders include Ted Cruz (9%), Jeb Bush (7%), Carly Fiorina (5%), Chris Christie (5%), and Rand Paul (3%).
Most of these results are within a few points of each candidates’ vote share back in September, except for Marco Rubio whose support has tripled from 4%. In the past two months, Christie’s support has increased by 3 points, while support for Trump and Fiorina have each decreased by 2 points, all within the survey’s margin of error.
Interesting. I have no idea why New Hampshire voters are so strong for Kasich, except that I think he’s spent a lot of money on ads there.
This is even more interesting, I think:
Currently, only 1-in-5 (20%) likely primary voters say they are completely decided on who they will support, 39% say they have a strong preference but are willing to consider other candidates, 22% have only a slight preference, and 19% say they are really undecided. Just 1-in-3 voters say they would be very (11%) or somewhat (21%) unhappy if their chosen candidate did not win the Republican nomination. Half (50%) say they would be okay with a different outcome and 18% say their feeling would depend on who becomes the nominee. Among the front runners, Rubio supporters (18%) are the least likely to feel unhappy if someone else won the nomination.
In other words: it’s early.
In Iowa, only 19% are firmly committed. The polls are mostly worthless and the media spins them as the gospel.
I veer between believing that some of the media are trying to shape the campaign, and believing that they yap incessantly about meaningless garbage because they have nothing else. Nothing that is other the news that the world coming apart at the seams, but what fun is it talking about that?
Of course the alternate motivations are not mutually exclusive.
Yes, it is early. Much to early to draw any conclusions. Especially conclusions based on who had the most good moments in a contrived TV setting.
Speaking of Iowa, from Oregon where we are enjoying time with the latest granchild, neither I or Mrs parker have made our decision about our preferred candidate.
The one good thing about the Iowa caucus is that you meet face to face with your neighbors and discuss why you support a particular candidate, and why you do not support other candidates. Not that it matters much, Iowa has a dismal track record for picking the eventual nominee.
Parker
I thought the GOP caucus was more like regular voting than a big open meeting. Wrong?
I thought the Dems talked and talked and try to strong arm votes.
About Kasich “mystery” support? Isn’t he the backup candidate for RINO Jeb Bush contingent?
And haven’t Leftist Bostonian’s ‘Californicated’ New Hampshire? And can’t they cross party vote there?
(You may correct me, neo…naturally!)
Orson:
Well, of course there’s no way that pollsters can know for sure, but it’s supposed to be a poll of Republicans or likely Republican voters. Independents can cross over in NH.
However, NH is not known for supporting Bushes. The Republican Party there does seem to support RINOs, though (McCain always did well there). But Kasich has put a lot of money into NH, and I think that’s mainly what is reflected here.
your missing the war heating up while distracted with polls and election bs..
Clueless Obama Bumbles Into Syria, Risks Major Confrontation With Russia Without Reason
The punchline could be World War III, as the Community Organizer is Chief sends US forces into Russia’s sphere of interest for reasons only Valerie Jarrett would know.
Where are all the antiwar protestors?
and we are daring china to war too…
Cornhead,
Where my caucus meets we first show our registration card to affirm we are registered republicans. When the precinct captain starts the actual caucus people volunteer to speak for the candidates (not all candidates will be represented, especially this year) and there is a short discussion on each candidate. Its all very Iowan polite.
Neo – I note with interest that neither you, your commenters or other “analysts” ever talk about sample size for these polls or the poll’s margin of error.
The amount of shouting when Carson (or Trump) “shoots” to a 5% lead is amazing. When you consider that even the national polls frequently have a sample size of not much more than 500 respondents and that the margin of error frequently exceeds 5%, it could mean that they are tied. It is even more ludicrous when we are told that, breathily, 4 or 5 candidates are within 2% of each other. The margin of error means that such small differences are meaningless.
And yet, this craziness continues.
nkbay99:
I guess you haven’t read many of my posts about polls.
I often talk about sample size. Here’s a fairly recent one where I discuss it and here’s another older one. Those are just two examples. I also often talk about whether a sample is representative or not.
I have no idea why New Hampshire voters are so strong for Kasich,…
It’s simple – the New Hampshire voters polled are former Massholes.