Turkey deals Erdogan a setback, Kurds gain
I can’t say I have my finger on the pulse of Turkish politics, but it appears to me that this could be good news:
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, has suffered his biggest setback in 13 years of amassing power as voters denied his ruling party a parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 and gave the country’s large Kurdish minority its biggest voice ever in national politics.
The election result on Sunday, with almost all votes counted, appeared to wreck ErdoÄŸan’s ambition of rewriting the constitution to establish himself as an all-powerful executive president. ErdoÄŸan’s governing Justice and Development party, or AKP, won the election comfortably for the fourth time in a row, with around 41% of the vote, but that represented a steep fall in support from 49% in 2011, throwing the government of the country into great uncertainty.
Sounds as though Erdogan was going to take the next step towards solidifying his control, and the voters pulled back (while they were still able to). However, his party is still the strongest one in the country.
…[The results] meant it was unlikely that the AKP [Erdogan’s party] would be able to form a majority government, forcing it to negotiate a coalition, probably with extreme nationalists, or to call a fresh election if no parliamentary majority can be secured within six weeks.
The new party, the HDP or Peoples’ Democratic party, largely representing the Kurds but also encompassing leftwing liberals, surpassed the steep 10% threshold for entering parliament to take more than 12% of the vote and around 80 seats in the 550-strong chamber.
Since I had no idea what “leftwing liberals” means in the Turkish political climate, I looked it up to get a general picture. It certainly appears to be more “leftwing” than “liberal”—which some of you may think is a distinction without a difference, but my point is that in Turkey right now we appear to be seeing the old dichotomy of religious fundamentalist statists vs. anti-capitalist socialist statists:
The HDP is a democratic socialist party that adheres to anti-capitalism and aspires to end religious, gender and racial discrimination. The party has a 50% quota for women and a 10% quota for the LGBT community when fielding candidates. The party is also environmentalist, opposing the introduction of nuclear power in Turkey and also speaking out strongly in favour of the Gezi Park protests in 2013 that began as an environmentalist demonstration. It is said to resonate with liberal, middle-class Turks. Despite their anti-nationalist stance, the party has been perceived by some to be a Kurdish nationalist party due to their affiliation with the Democratic Regions Party and their support for minority rights…
The HDP was described by its founding chairpersons as a party that aims to eliminate the exploitation of labour and to fundamentally re-establish a democracy in which honourable and humanitarian individuals can live together as equal citizens. It was further described as a party aiming to bring about fundamental change to the existing Capitalist system though uniting a wide range of left-wing opposition movements…
Concerns were raised that the inclusion of the Kurdish nationalist HDK member Peace and Democracy Party in the HDP would raise allegations that the HDP was also a mainly Kurdish orientated party. However, é–nen claimed that the HDP’s key goal was to establish a different perspective of viewing the Turkish political scene and moving away from the existing ‘Kurdish versus Turkish’ dichotomy that had become institutionally entrenched within Turkish political perceptions.
It sounds as though it’s not time to break out the champagne.
His crew won the ‘NOT Erdogan’ vote.
That’s all.
BTW, the Turkish Lira is largely in free-fall.
If Iran is able to duck the sanctions wall, Erdogan’s crew will suffer a HUGE loss in ‘hair cut’ profits now taken down by breaking the sanctions regime.
In this, Erdogan is replicating his anti-American stance seen in 2003 — the 4th ID nixxing.
Yes, he screwed the pooch on that one, too.
Erdogan is to Ankara what Soetoro is to Washington — a tyrant who’s goal is the destruction of EVERY prior norm.
Like Barry it’s all about the despot… the only consistency in Turkish national politics since Erdogan took the Big Chair.
In their desire to make themselves appear normal by state force, the LGBT community would sell out their fellow people to a bad end, then expect they would live a good end… perhaps this is why societies through time have disliked them? that with the impulse to ignore societies morals, and ethics, and so on, comes the low morals necessary to sell out your fellow citizens for a promised future outcome that never actually has to happen to get action in the now.
I was in Turkey (Siliviri – West of Istanbul) for a few months in 2002, and Lira then were so worthless you couldn’t even figure out how to pay for things. You’re handing over millions for common items, and just not bothering to count the change.
They had just been through elections, and it was also Ramadan, so the atmosphere was pretty fun for an American who had no experience with a culture like that. After the elections, I recall a parade down the main street where I was staying, in a dumpy hotel (I am an engineer working for an oil related business), and they had torches and made a lot of noise, sort of like when the villagers came to lynch Frankenstein. However, it was a happy celebration, and like most things there, not what you expect.
It’s an interesting culture, Middle Eastern meets the West. Lots of historical places and it would be beautifull in Istanbul, if it were a bit cleaner. Okay, a lot cleaner, but there are still some great places to see.
Mostly they were very nice people, very emotional and passionate. The driving experience is like nothing on earth; but remember to shake your fist, lay on your horn, and stand your ground. Also, if you’re on the sidewalk and you’re in somebody’s way at a traffic jam, be prepared to get bumped by the cars who are telling you to get out of the way. Sidewalks, where they exist, are just extensions of the road. That’s assuming the fist shaking and he horn doesnt convey the message.
There’s way too many things to write about in a couple of paragraphs, but it’s worth a visit for a curious traveler interested in history, and not too concerned with getting a stomach ache.
I lost about 40 lbs in 2 months, but that was a good thing. In any case, the LGBT thing caught my eye because it was not uncommon to see men walking around holding hands. They are a lot more open about their fondness of one another than you expect in a place where Muslims are more than half the population, and most all of them observed Muslim customs. Except for drinking, which they also seemed to enjoy.
Another thing – men don’t work in places where there’s customer service — they stand behind women who do the work, and straighten their ties, or papers on the desks, or whatever to look busy and authoritative. It’s quite funny for an American to watch the whole thing, unless you’re trying to get out of the damn airport with your luggage, and then it’s not funny…. But I digress. In fact, most of them looked like they had no idea what to do, but their job was to keep an eye on the women and make sure they did things.
I can only imagine how the government is lead and organizied, but after interacting with then for a while, I can guess that it would be pretty entertaining. In fact the company I worked for sold a rig to the government of Turkey, which is how I happened to be there, so all of the “managers” for that project were government employees. Their inefficiency in doing anything at all was spectacular.
One day, they had a strike for 2 hours to protest pay, then worked those 2 hours at the end of the day. Another day, they sacrificed a goat for some reason or another, and roasted it in mess. It was something goofy every day, and twice as goofy back in town.
A silly, silly bunch of folks, but interesting and mostly fun. I wish them luck with their latest foray into democracy, invented by a country they all dislike with a passion.
So what is the position of the Turkish military?
It will be fascinating to watch the Erdogan semi-Islamists versus the HDP leftists fighting in the same goldfish bowl. Kill ’em! Who? Who cares…Either one!
starlord, I enjoyed your observations about your sojourn in Turkey. I’ve never been there, but some of the novelties of the culture you mentioned reminded me a lot of Naples, Italy. The place has a lot of history and could be beautiful if cleaned up. The people are warm and expressive but slovenly in many ways. Driving is a combat sport. Actually, those characteristics apply to most cultures that surround the Med. Over the centuries there has been a lot of cross cultural mixing.
snoper…
Their position is prostrate…
Erdogan’s purges began Y E A R S ahead of ayatollah Soetoro’s.
He’s frog-marched the top brass off to prison or mass resignation.
stalord…
Whenever dealing with alien fiat currencies one MUST adjust for the stability and direction of their exchange rates.
Way, way, way, way back the Yen was valued something like One Dollar US.
After the financial debacle usually known as WWII, the Yen had fallen entirely out of bed. Even in the 1960s the Yen to Dollar exchange rate was way past 300 to 1.
The Japanese miracle lasted and lasted. The Yen recently topped out around 80:1 versus the US dollar. It’s now being de-based like mad — by the Japanese authorities.
Consequently, the fact that it took hundreds of Yen to purchase a single US dollar did not make it a weak currency.
During the same era the Swiss Franc went from 5:1 to 1: 1 1/3 (ish)
&&&&&
The PRIMARY reason that Erdogan is in hot water is his abuse of the economy which shows up best/ most obviously in the exchange rate of the Turkish Lira.
For more on this read the commentary by Spengler over at PJ Media. Goldman is predicting an economic implosion.
As for Islamist graft at the top: you’d swear Erdogan was an ayatollah of graft, himself.
I wouldn’t say that he’d make Bill Clinton blush — an impossibility — but Erdogan is making a rush for the lucre equal to ‘Organizing for America.’
BOTH tyrants are stuffing mattress money into their respective war chests for street battles yet to come.
Lets not go overboard about the Kurds – they are after all, Muslim! They were also the workers for the Turkish government in the Armenian genocide.
Neo said:
“…my point is that in Turkey right now we appear to be seeing the old dichotomy of religious fundamentalist statists vs. anti-capitalist socialist statists.”
I think many Muslims would like to live in an advanced democratic society but because of their Islamic World view they lack the cultural tools to achieve that end. Islam is a religion designed for a totalitarian system of government in which there are many restrictions on common people but very few restrictions on the power and riches of the rulers. What we call corruption is just business as usual in an Islamic culture.
backofanenvelope Says:
“Lets not go overboard about the Kurds — they are after all, Muslim!”
Good point.
stalord Says
“Mostly they were very nice people, very emotional and passionate.”
Those nice people are descendants of same people who slaughtered the Armenians. Turkey still refuses to acknowledge the genocide and they have certainly not repented for their actions.
Muslim friendship with kaffirs is a mile wide and an inch deep. In fact the Koran specifically tells Muslims not to take kaffirs as friends and Muslims.
“(2) O you who believe! Take not as (your) Bitanah (advisors, consultants, protectors, helpers, friends) those outside your religion (pagans, Jews, Christians, and hypocrites) since they will not fail to do their best to corrupt you. They desire to harm you severely. Hatred has already appeared from their mouths, but what their breasts conceal is far worse. Indeed We have made plain to you the Ayat (proofs, evidence, verses) if you understand. ”
Aal-e-Imran, Chapter #3, Verse #118
Sorry for the typo. The last sentence should have stated “In fact the Koran specifically tells Muslims not to take kaffirs as friends and Muslims I’ve talked to take that verse to mean that no matter how friendly they may appear good Muslims don’t really regard kaffirs as friends.
Dennis – you are right about their heritage, and my observations were only of the people I interacted with – for what it’s worth, having traveled to other ME countries, SE Asia, Asia, etc, I would guess they’d make better allies than enemies. They do a decent job of balancing the idealism of religious customs with a practical and secular society. Things seemed chaotic to an American, but they were for the most part, people like us in the sense they weren’t political or religious zealots who wanted to debate you on American imperialism and whatever other issue we’re guilty of. If they didn’t like you, they weren’t prone to wanting to kill you or do you harm or kidnapping you for ransom. You don’t get a lot of Turkish terrorists running around, and I think because wasn’t tolerated or celebrated by the majority of people. They had other things to do – make a living and raise families.
But as you say, they weren’t angels, and for all I know, might be capable of bad things if their economic situation were to turn south. If I have a point, it’s only that of the cultures I’ve visited in that area, we have the most in common with them and I’d rather have them on our side than not- my travel log notwithstanding.
It appears we have some social justice incubating here with the reminder that Kurds participated in the Turkish genocide of Armenians 100 years ago. Kinda like “white people used to own slaves.”
I submit the Kurds in Kurdish Iraq are not the Kurds of yore. But the esteemed Obama Admin. will not allow sale of, nor provide, serious weapons for them to fight the US-equipped ISIS (Sorry, Barry, I meant ISIL).