Home » Open thread 10/2/2024

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Open thread 10/2/2024 — 32 Comments

  1. Is it my imagination? Did I just dream it? I swear that yesterday Iran launched close to 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. Reading the news this morning, I can’t find anything about that on either right or left sites.

    I must have taken a nap after doing yard work and had one of those intense nap dreams. Oh well…..

  2. Did not watch, can’t afford a new TV.
    Reading after action comments, Vance clear winner. Understand the Dem moderators cut his mike, don’t they know their own rules.
    I it very dark a 6 AM. Mid 40’s now at night. Lots of leaves of Autumn falling down.

  3. They did it was like if elmer fudd had fired it at daffy duck (there are some dark comic elements) when theres a air raid siren you dont sit around in open ground

    There was the tragic incident in haifa of course nothing to make light off

    I didnt appreciate sinatras musical talent back in the day he had great versatility as well as his lesser roles like in the detective and frank rome (pi he played set in miami in 68

  4. Should We Go to Mars?

    So, the good news for those who want to extend our species’ reach into space: Mars is the second-best planet in the solar system for humans.

    The bad news: That’s sort of like saying North Korea is the “second-best country on the Korean Peninsula.”

    And the challenges don’t stop once you make it to the red planet. There’s the fact that the soil on Mars is potentially toxic to humans, that we don’t know what the effects of prolonged exposure to reduced Martian gravity would be on astronauts’ bodies, and that NASA worries that the astronauts may just crack under the stress of being isolated with their co-workers for that long.

    That progress will probably be messy and uneven. But that’s how exploration works. Throughout human history, our reach has often exceeded our grasp at first. But that’s no reason to give up. Because the road to discovery often requires lots of setbacks on the way to success.

  5. Yup, the leaves are turning in New England.

    One of Sinatra’s best albums from the 1950s. The featured track, plus “Where Are You?”, “The Night We Called It a Day”, “Maybe You’ll Be There”, “Laura”, “Lonely Town”–even better than “Only the Lonely”.

  6. Although blogs have been somewhat eclipsed by social media in recent years, they are making a comeback in the form of Substacks. Here are a few I like:

    https://jeffreycarter.substack.com/
    Jeff is a former commodities trader who writes about markets, politics, and many other things.

    https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/
    A US naval officer writers about matters maritime and historical.

    https://www.writingruxandrabio.com/
    Rumanian woman working on genomics PhD in England. Some biotech, plus philosophical thoughts about politics and society. Rux has been particularly eloquent about the problems with the whole concept of ‘misinformation’.

    https://intrastellar.substack.com/
    A new substack by frequent and thoughtful X commenter @WindDustStars, which she calls the Night Portal and introduces with “It’s time to leave the cacophony behind”

    The following a free-standing websites rather than substacks:

    https://investor.fm/
    Investment fund manager, born in Russia, writes about investing, art, and music, sometimes political affairs and history.

    https://gcaptain.com/
    Covers the maritime transportation industry.

  7. yes those are some great selections, jeffrey carter, helped me cut through the ridiculous dnc hack narrative, same for salamander and ruxandrubio

  8. Evidently even some liberal sources are saying the Vance won the debate. Who can say how much of a difference it will make? The edifice of lies and false narratives that’s been constructed by the media is enormous. And people tend to believe what they really want to believe, even if they know that there may be reasons to not do so.

    Of course reality can sometimes intrude and shatter delusion. People can’t easily ignore events that they see and experience themselves. It’s hard to ignore prices at the grocery store, house prices, auto prices and the like if you’re middle class. It’s hard to ignore the influx of migrants, the cultural clash, and the rise in violent crime if you live in a community that is experiencing those things. It’s hard to not see the instability in the world at large, the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. And to then not associate these issues with those who have been in power for the last four years, the policies and legislation they’ve put forth, the ideas they’ve championed seems like it might be almost painful.

  9. https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1841422324890812763

    Today, I have declared UN Secretary-General @antonioguterres persona non grata in Israel and banned him from entering the country.

    Anyone who cannot unequivocally condemn Iran’s heinous attack on Israel, as almost every country in the world has done, does not deserve to step foot on Israeli soil.

    This is a Secretary-General who has yet to denounce the massacre and sexual atrocities committed by Hamas murderers on October 7, nor has he led any efforts to declare them a terrorist organization.

    A Secretary-General who gives backing to terrorists, rapists, and murderers from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and now Iran—the mothership of global terror—will be remembered as a stain on the history of the UN.

    Israel will continue to defend its citizens and uphold its national dignity, with or without António Guterres.

    Good start. Now do Amos Hochstein.

  10. Karmi,

    Anthony Weir’s book, “The Martian” is an excellent, scientific discourse on the challenges of getting to, from and living on Mars. It’s also a ripping yarn! I highly recommend it.

  11. “Les Feuilles Mortes” (“Autumn Leaves”) and “Le Mer” (“Beyond the Sea”) are two great jazz standards adapted from French songs. I’m not fluent, like huxley, but I’ve read Mark Steyn explain the English lyrics to “Autumn Leaves” are close to the original French, but “Beyond the Sea” is a bit different.

    I believe I recall Miles Davis saying “Autumn Leaves” was his favorite or one of his favorite songs. There are myriad great versions, but Karyn Allison’s is probably my favorite vocal version. She slightly flattens some of her notes to give it a tinge of sadness, while still singing clearly.

    I don’t know why, but there are a fair amount of French and Portuguese songs that readily adapt to jazz.

  12. yes I liked the book, some real hard science the kind they don’t have in most science fiction today, his follow up artemis or something wasn’t as good,

  13. Now that fall is getting into gear in most parts of the country, we in central coast California are getting a bit of our warm to hot summer weather. It hit 86 degrees yesterday and should go over 80 today.

    It used to be the case that the foggy and chilly summer weather would extend through July and most of August, but the sunny heat would arrive in late August and extend through most of September. Now, with global warming (/sarc), we go all the way through September before the really warm weather hits. And while it used to routinely get into the mid 90’s, now the mid 80’s is about the top.

  14. “Autumn Leaves” leaves out the word “dead” (mortes) that is so prominent in the French version, making the American version not as forlorn as the French. There may be reasons why French schools teach Jacques Prevert and ours don’t teach Johnny Mercer.

    “La Mer” is more of a poetic meditation. “Beyond the Sea” is a straightforward love song. There’s a spirited exaltation in the tune, but it takes very different objects and directions in the different versions.

    Sinatra’s “My Way” was also originally a French song, “Comme d’habitude.” If you like underplayed and melancholy, serious and a bit drab, the original was better, but Paul Anka caught something stirring in the tune and wrote the lyrics that made an overpowering anthem for Sinatra.

    Americans do a lot to take the sadness out of French songs. A professor pointed that out by comparing the 18th century “Plasir d’amour [Chagrin d’amour]” with the 1950s “My Love Loves Me,” sung to the same tune.

  15. Mike Plaiss: Bloomberg article sans paywall (but videos apparently remain behind):
    Iran Pushed Into Reluctant Response by Sustained Israel Attacks
    Islamic Republic fired 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday night
    Response to Hezbollah leader’s death left many underwhelmed
    Error:

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    WATCH: Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday and the IDF said many were intercepted. Paul Wallace and Dan Williams report.Source: Bloomberg

    Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in Touch
    Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal
    LEARN MORE
    By Sam Dagher and Golnar Motevalli
    October 2, 2024 at 10:13 AM CDT

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    3:24

    Iran’s generals and clerics have repeatedly shown a reluctance to go to war in recent months, yet the scale of Israel’s damage to the country’s regional prowess left them with little option but to retaliate.

    The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week dealt a crushing blow to Iran’s decades-in-the-making network of armed allies, the most powerful of which is the Lebanon-based group. His death in an Israeli airstrike came either side of days of intense bombing, followed by a ground incursion early Monday.

    IRAN-ISRAEL-LEBANON-PALESTINIAN-CONFLICT
    Demonstrators carry portraits of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and slain leaders, during a rally in Tehran on Oct. 2.Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
    Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s initial response to Nasrallah’s death was that Hezbollah would lead retaliatory efforts, alongside Lebanon. That left many Shiite Muslims in the Middle East and in Iran frustrated at the lack of action.

    “There was a lot of public opinion and pressure on Iran to do something,” said Foad Izadi, professor of world studies at the University of Tehran.

    Bloomberg Intelligence
    Israel Vows Retaliation, VP Debate

    43:02
    Iran then fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, an assault similar in nature to the salvo that followed the bombing of its consulate in Damascus in April. That attack was broadly seen as deliberately measured and was thwarted by Israel, the US and other allies. This week’s barrage was also mostly intercepted, though Iran gave less warning and more missiles breached Israeli airspace.

    ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN-IRAN-LEBANON-CONFLICT
    A destroyed building following an Iranian missile attack in Hod HaSharon, Israel, on Oct. 2.Photographer: Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images
    Iran’s restraint followed a lack of significant response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, a killing widely suspected to have been carried out by Israel, though it didn’t claim responsibility. That underscored Tehran’s insistence that it wants to avoid a wider conflict and help secure a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which has been raging for almost a year.

    Read More: Death of a Hamas Chief Suggests Failure at Heart of Iran’s Rule

    Yet a truce in the Palestinian territory hasn’t materialized and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instead switched focus to Lebanon, launching a major bombardment of the south of the country last month.

    Ahmed Al-Heela, a Palestinian expert on Iran’s axis of resistance — the name given to its network of allied militia groups — said: “Israel messed with Iran’s national security” when it killed Nasrallah and went after Hezbollah.

    “There is an organic and structural connection between the IRGC and Hezbollah,” he told Al Jazeera’s Arabic-language news channel, referring to Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He added that Netanyahu’s talk of redrawing the map of the Middle East and pushing back Iran’s influence in the Levant spurred the leadership of the Islamic Republic into action.

    Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’
    A network of armed groups working against the US and Israel

    Tuesday night’s strike is unlikely to be enough to restore Khamenei’s reputation. It caused little significant damage and has received a mixed response from the Middle East’s minority Shiite Muslim population that he aspires to lead.

    Ali Mourad, a law professor at the Beirut Arab University and a native of the Shiite-dominated Lebanese south, said celebratory gunfire echoed in Beirut for almost 30 minutes after Iran’s barrage. The actions boosted the morale of Hezbollah’s followers albeit momentarily, he said by phone, with the group still on the back foot.

    “People feel orphaned, Nasrallah was a source of their strength,” Mourad said. “They are blaming Iran and don’t understand its intentions and the battle trajectory.”

    Error:

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    WATCH: From the Iron Dome to David’s Sling, Israel has some of the world’s most advanced air defense systems. Alex Morgan explains how they’re being tested by attacks from Iran and its proxies.
    Many took to social media to express despair at what they see as Iran’s toothless response to Israeli aggression, which has left tens of thousands dead in Gaza and, more recently, Lebanon.

    “Enough! Stop lying to us, you are killing us, slaughtering us for what? For Iran,” Moustapha el-Malek, a Shiite Lebanese living in Lebanon said in an impassioned video that was shared on X.

    — With assistance from Gina Turner

  16. Have been watching the political betting and prediction sites this year instead of the polling sites – all the polls showing the “Red Wave” in 2022 was it for me on polls…at least this year.

    Wish my vote was worth more than it is—I’d seriously like to bring down a baby sledge onto the Republican party this year, especially after Trump turned pro-Russia against Ukraine, and after recently discovering how connected-at-the-Hip Trump’s Republican party is to the Project 2025 Mandate and the MOMS Act.

    Found a new Predictions site within the past hour:

    Race to the WH

    Durn, that’s my 3rd link already!?! There is a limit of links here, and my comments end up in some remote bin when I go over ever how many links we are allowed…probably over 3 but I stop at 3 anyway to make sure.

    Oh, back to the new Race to the WH site I have found. Launched in 2020, but claims strong record for 2022.

    Huh, just found another Predictions site – JHK Forecasts, but I can’t link to it now. They show a chart that has how well polling and prediction sites did in the 2022 Senate Forecasts—order of Winners: Race to the WH, Split Ticket, The Economist, JHK Forecasts, FiveThirtyEight, Decision Desk HQ, Cook Political Report, Fox News, Cnalysis, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Chrystal Ball, Election Daily, Political, RealClearPolitics, and RRH Election.

    That Split Ticket did good also, and I will check out some of the others on that list. Not sure if the info is correct since just finding it all, but can’t be any worse that the “Red Wave” that failed.

    Will be voting GOP in Florida’s state and local races, but have already decided to vote against Rick Scott in a close race. He brags about voting against helping Ukraine…would love to see DEM Debbie Mucarsel-Powell win. Not sure where it leaves the Republican’s chances for gaining the Senate if they lose Scott & Cruz…

    House is supposedly the DEMs for sure. My Rep is Kat Cammack, who has a strong lead over Tom Wells so may not vote in that race. Still waiting for Dixie county’s Supervisor of Elections to send out the cheat-sheet.

  17. That Bloomberg headline is consistent with the idiotic formulation of the question in the VP debate last night: Do you support a preemptive strike by Israel against Iran? Nearly 200 ballistic missiles fired into Israel directly from Iran, and the response will be “preemptive’??

    Iran, in this formulation, is basically claiming that Lebanon and Syria are within its control and attacks on Hezbollah, in Lebanon, are attacks on Iran.

  18. Pudding-Brain:

    President Biden said Wednesday that he opposes a possible preemptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program sites as tensions between the countries grow.

    “The answer is no,” the 81-year-old retiring president told reporters under the wing of Air Force One as he departed Washington for a trip to North Carolina to tour Hurricane Helene damage.

    https://nypost.com/2024/10/02/us-news/biden-says-he-opposes-israel-destroying-irans-nuclear-weapons-sites-as-tensions-grow/

    Best to ignore him and do whatever is seen fit? Or kowtow to this imbecile and thus suffer defeat once more?

    Choices, choices. They never stop.

    .

  19. Am hearing Israels response to Iran might be attacking their oil fields.

    Heck, Israel should’ve been hitting Iran’s Oil Rigs for every Hamas, Hezzy, and Houti missile fired at Israel.

    Don’t wipe the oil field out all at once…let Iran basically do it to themselves—like maybe one Oil Rig at a time.

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