Will Joe give in?
We have the rather odd spectacle of the Republicans rooting for Biden to stay in the race, and Democrats trying to push him out and replace him. Biden himself seems weak and frail at the moment, suffering from COVID – which I think he actually has, because there’s a mini-surge – and being barraged by requests and even demands that he step down.
How firmly can Biden cling to power, and for how long? As I’ve written before, he’s a stubborn old cuss. But as time goes on and the number of Democrat leaders calling – publicly – for his abdication increases, it seems he will probably waver. My sense is that the final result will depend on how many people tell him to pull out, and in what ways they threaten him if he doesn’t. If they make it clear that, if he doesn’t withdraw, they will challenge him at the convention and make it impossible for him to be nominated, then I believe he will see that he has no alternative but to quit before he’s forced out. But will they say that? And can they accomplish it? I have little doubt they would like to do so.
Lastly, of course, is the question of whether a replacement such as Kamala would do better. Polls are fairly useless at this point, although state polls in swing states are most helpful and national polls least helpful. And even though this campaign season may already seem endless, there are still over three months to go, and three months is a long time in politics. Do people really know Kamala Harris, and would more exposure to her over time enhance her appeal or detract from it? That’s just one of so many many unanswered questions. And for that matter, whom would Harris choose as her VP, and would it matter?
And then there’s fraud …
Of course he will. He’ll get a doctor’s order. I want the whole country to see that note,
“To the people of the United States:
In my professional opinion, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. is too ill to continue his duties as President of the United States.
/s/
White House doctor”
The bribe money will be delivered to the Bidens’ bitcoin accounts this Friday.
So far the latest swing state polls I’ve seen are polls of “registered voters”, useless. But I’m not sure how useful “likely voters” would be either, since they won’t have harvested ballots and unattended drop boxes factored in.
In the 80s and 90s “registered voters” polls favored Dems more heavily than “likely voters”, but I’m not at all sure this would still be true: some of the “registered voters” wouldn’t have voted in the 80s and 90s, but today they are more likely to thanks to ballot harvesting and whatnot.
Even if he gives in on the nomination, I think he’ll cling to the presidency, because he wants to have the pardon power for himself and his family members to exercise after the election, one way or the other.
Democrats will have to try to justify having a man who is too old and confused to be prosecuted for crimes and too weak to continue campaigning in the White House with the full power of the presidency.
It’s a good point.
I’m not big on polls either. I mean how accurate can they possibly be?
Oh right: “margin of error”….
(OTOH, I WOULD find polling of illegal voters and/or dead voters far more useful…)
the problem with these reports, is you can’t believe the official ones, and the anonymous ones are dubious as well, so flip a coin, and you’re likely to reach the right answer,
As I’ve been socializing quite a bit, and Facebook has been surprisingly useful in that regard, I now have many FB “friends.” Some, I actually know, and others are new people that are barely acquaintances.
Politics is heating up on the FB postings, and Biden’s fitness is a topic of course. One of my new acquaintances posted a longer comment about how she has professionally done thousands of fitness evaluations of elderly people. She was emphatic that Joe has declined greatly, and almost certainly is in a steep decline now.
Of course, she finishes by stating that she will vote for a yellow dog with a -D at the end of its name, if it comes to that. Anything to stop Trump. This is blue-land after all.
he was never good, as much as they tried to gaslight us, so she would vote for harris, who is equally terrible, for obama, does she actually care what happens to this country,
It will be easier for the media and democrats (and courts) to gloss over the late night ballot dumps and weeks of counting until trump loses if it’s someone other than Biden the “fortification” is dragging over the line. No matter how obvious it is, the fraud will also sit better with the average democrat voter if it isn’t Biden who pulls out the win.
It will also be easier and more palatable to the pollsters to release polls showing the new nominee ahead of trump in all battleground states in order to justify the upcoming fortification.
After seeing the GOP convention so far, I’d think the Dems would also want some of that same happy unity at their convention too. It would seem a divisive DNC would clinch a November disaster, especially if the division is over who the candidate would be.
If Biden stays in, division at the convention is a certainty. So my guess is that Biden drops out before the convention. That way he gets a grand, weepy, send off into the night, and the appearance of unity is at least plausible.
I suspect that the Biden’s will fight tooth and nail to keep Biden at the top of the ticket. Part is because it allows them to better protect the family from all of the criminal woes.
Second is that Dr. Jill recently confessed in an interview that she really, really likes the perks that come with her position as First Lady. She’ll lose all of that if Biden doesn’t run again
I lean toward him staying in. I think the media is trying to influence events with made-up stories about how he is more “receptive” to stepping aside. I haven’t seen any actual evidence. He had already said shortly after the debate that he’d step aside if a doctor advised him to, so there’s nothing new there. And Jill is certainly not going to tell him to quit.
“Doctor” Jill is our surrogate president. She loves the WH perks, being waited on, the clothes, the deference. She will not let Dopey Joe resign or refuse a nomination. For her own selfish reasons, nothing more or less. She has become a true Biden. Totally self-serving.
Harris / Buttigieg.
You watch. The black woman and the gay guy up against two straight male, white “Nazis. ”
DEI in all it’s glory.
If Harris becomes the nominee, will she want a VP that seems stronger than her?
Mark Halperin is reporting that Biden will not run and will announce this weekend.
The Dems have a VP problem. The current one will have to be Biden’s replacement. Then who does she pick (have picked for her)? The Dems are heading into their convention is total disarray. Even if Biden drops out and Harris is the new candidate, the fractures run very deep.
The Dems have to satisfy their Base, the Black Voter and the White Suburban Women. No easy task.
I’d wait 48 hours before believing anything we read. This isn’t news we’re reading, this is interoffice memos between the different wings of the Inner Party and Outer Party.
The thing will be decided behind closed doors somewhere and all this news activity is people not in the real meetings trying to influence them.
We’ve already seen a bunch of fake news this week. I’d be careful what narratives we allow to take up room in our heads.
Be concerned, be very, very, concerned.
If Harris becomes the nominee, will she want a VP that seems stronger than her?
That eliminates practically everybody! 🙂
It’s a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. The tight Biden inner circle will push the entire Democrat establishment to the absolute brink before they relent. But they will relent…only once they’re convinced they’ve milked the cow dry.
As I said last week, this family and their close confidants are unbelievably shameless and insatiably greedy. For money, certainly. But also, status, fame and accolades. ‘Love Biden, celebrate Biden, show devout reverence to Biden….or we’ll burn it all down!”
My assumption is they’ve made a lot of outrageous demamds…which the Democrat establishment and the donors reluctantly accepted…only to learn there were now more demands…which, after some brooding were also accepted…but….oh wait…MORE DEMANDS!
We’re nearing the end of this tragicomedy, but we’re not quite there yet. There are reports Slo Joe will drop out this weekend; I don’t believe it. They will push this to the end of July, as they keep the shake down going.
Oh noes anyways
You can make a formal request call a press conference theres this new fangled thing called facebook
Are the Democrat elders really doing anything more than trying to badger and bully Biden out of the race? Are they making real threats and offering real bribes? Appeals to the fate and future of the party aren’t moving the Bidens. Have threats and bribes been tried yet? Would they work?
If Joe does step down, something like a disease will have to be presented as the reason — with the idea that the disease is a recent development. The Bidens will never admit that Joe is incompetent and non compos mentis. I think Joe wants to put some time between his current travails and an eventual withdrawal. He doesn’t want it to be too obvious that he’s leaving because he’s senile. But Joe doesn’t have much time left, and every public appearance just confirms that he’s not all there. He’s unlikely to have a good week that will allow him to withdraw gracefully.
I say yes. I suspect soon.
Biden is now under intense pressure to perform and intense scrutiny to do well. Obviously it’s gotten worse with the Trump assassination attempt and Trump’s powerful presence as an opponent.
More and more Dems are telling him to stand aside. The media won’t be protecting him.
He can’t keep this up, even if he wants to.