Why would any “election denier” respond to a pollster?
[Hat tip: “Stan.”]
This seems intuitively obvious to me:
A leading independent pollster said Saturday that polls might seriously undercount Republican voters in the current political climate.
In a Twitter thread, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert C. Cahaly said that President Joe Biden’s recent attacks on so-called “MAGA Republicans” will make polling supporters of former President Donald Trump even harder to poll than in previous years. Cahaly pointed out that in the last two presidential election cycles, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats contributed to the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.” But as the 2022 midterms have begun in earnest, Biden’s escalating rhetoric against Trump supporters, accusing them of embracing “semi-fascism” and being a threat to America, will make these voters even harder to reach in polling.
The title of my post is somewhat hyperbolic; of course, some “election deniers” will want to respond. But I believe a significant number will not, or will lie.
The beauty of it as far as the Democrats are concerned is twofold, however. The first desired effect is that an under-representation of Republicans in the polls can serve to discourage people on the right from voting, because they feel it’s hopeless. I don’t think that would work this year, but who knows? Of course, it could also backfire and make Democrats feel they don’t have to vote because it’s in the bag for them. Again, I don’t think it would work that way this year, but again, who knows?
Under-representation of GOP voters in the polls has a second probable effect desired by the left: if the Democrats are going to commit voter fraud in order to win races, it helps if the predictions about the GOP vote versus the Democratic vote are kept artificially low. That way, there would be less suspicion later on when the Democrat wins.
Biden’s attacks on Trump voters and those who think fraud was probably involved on the part of Democrats in 2020 – a huge number of Americans – also may have the result of people on the right becoming more afraid to donate to causes or candidates on the right. This phenomenon of exposing lists of donors on the right has been going on for a long time, but I suspect that the current escalation of the campaign against Democrats’ opponents and their willingness to either sic the Twitter crowd on them or prosecute them legally, or both, will have a desired effect of discouraging political donations.
Makes me think of this song by Phil Ochs, which came out in 1964; I heard it some time in the mid-60s. Ochs was on the left, but he didn’t exempt them from criticism:
Too few conservatives are fully aware of how leftists abuse and misuse language in order to gain competitive advantage over an often gullible public (the disparaging, over the last several years, as belonging to the realm of the “conspiracy theory”,of almost all arguments from the right, most of which have turned out to be correct). An “election denier” is nothing more than a rational person who, having examined a great deal of evidence, has concluded that 2020’s election was, in leftist parlance, “problematic”, the so-called “Big Lie” being, in fact, the MSM’s contention that it was “free and fair.”
How to respond to “are you an election denier?”: “Are you an election fraud denier?” Having said that, the problem of polls not reflecting the true level of Republican is worrisome as a cover for the results of Dem voter fraud.
My advice, since 2008, is to lie to all pollsters.
Increasingly, I distrust poll results. Besides the partisan bias, so many people are behind cell phone barriers. In my case, any call from a number not in my directory goes to voicemail.
I am about as likely to give a pollster information as I am the FBI. As the saying goes–or went–the answer is “Slim and None, and Slim just left town”.
What Oldflyer said. I don’t answer any calls likely to be from pollsters.
Scott Adams, creator of the Dilbert cartoon, asked a good question on his podcast a few mornings ago.
“What is a good name for people who believe elections are credible because corrupt institutions told them so?”
I have my own suggested names, but I’ll keep them to myself.
Pretty much all polls for a decade or more routinely over sample Dems.
And there are many “push polls” which try to influence your stand on an issue, not really count you.
The left demonizes anyone:
– Associated with Trump
– who admits voting for Trump
– found wearing MAGA Apparel
– who question the results of the 2020 election
– who is pro-life
– who is anti illegal immigration
– who supports the 2A
– who is Christian
– who is white.
I can guarantee that there are a lot – A.LOT – of the conservative electorate that are keeping a very low profile. Especially after the way the DOJ/FBI has been behaving.
The truth is that most people recognize that there were problems with the last election, some of them serious, that there were many new procedures adopted that were extra-legal, and in nearly all cases too new to have been fully thought through, and therefore susceptible to exploitation of their vulnerabilities – and that this kind of exploitation is historically conducted by Machine Democrats in Deep Blue cities. Most people also recognize that if election malfeasance had occurred, they would be unlikely to hear the truth about it from the Democrats.
Matt Taibbi and Walter Kirn were talking about this in their podcast last week, and it was interesting to hear their concluding prognostication about midterms. Taibbi, a Progressive, is cautiously optimistic that the Democrats are making the right moves. Kirn, who doesn’t disclose his politics, says that he lives in flyover country and that Democrats are underestimating just how pissed off people are right now. It was interesting to hear Taibbi trying to absorb this without being shocked.
Taibbi’s substack is one of the best sites for well-researched and conducted investigative journalism, if you ask me, and the weekly conversation between Kirn and Taibbi is very good.
“Cahaly pointed out that in the last two presidential election cycles, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats contributed to the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.”
Ah but there are few, if any “shy Trump voters”.
Most Trump voters are so utterly contemptuous of the media’s pollsters that they see no purpose to participating in one.
cahaly is probably the leading edge of the ascertainment of the true vote, not the unverified one,
JimNorCal,
I wonder if push polling is more of a California issue. The last couple polls I attempted to answer, many years ago, were push polls.
“We promise this will only take 10 minutes.”
Thirty minutes later they are still trying to ask you questions the way Jim Acosta usually asked Trump questions. Blah, blah, on and on.
TommyJay (7:16 pm) said, “Thirty minutes later they are still trying to ask you questions the way Jim Acosta usually asked Trump questions.”
I had exactly this experience once, albeit quite a few years ago, when I actually was willing to give a pollster the proverbial time-of-day.
She promised it would take only ten minutes. After fifteen or twenty or so, I reminded her that she had promised ten minutes, and that her time was about to expire. I told her (truthfully) that since I’m hard of hearing, and I had needed for her to repeat a handful of questions, I would grant her five additional minutes to finish up, but after that point her time really was going to expire.
Five minutes went by, and I interjected, “your time is up”; she said “one more question,” I assented, gave my answer, and then she went on to another question. I repeated, “your time is up,” and this time I hung up the phone.
But wait, there’s more . . .
I am not making this up: a couple of evenings later, she actually called me and asked if we could finish the survey. (Evidently, partial surveys count as zero in her firm’s tallying.) I told her “no” and hung up. And that was that.
I’m not saying it’s a bad post, but I think it relies on three outdated rationales for why Republican voters (or any voters) do what they do.
1. Polls can influence how or whether people vote.
2. Silence equals inaction, or lack of interest.
3. Politics is all about money. If you raise more than your opponent, you have a better chance of winning.
First, Republicans and conservatives can’t trust polls anymore. This does not stop bloggers like Powerline from reporting on them, which is foolish because the polls overwhelmingly predicted that Donald Trump would be crushed in 2016. Maybe it’s an easy blog post; I don’t know. But beyond that, polls have to be seen by voters to have an effect, no? If CNN puts out a poll, how many people see it? Their ratings are in the tank. News junkies and bloggers maybe amplify it, but leftist and conservative blogs aren’t going to change any minds with poll numbers.
2. Silence is not inaction or lack of interest. I’m very interested in the midterms and I absolutely plan on voting, come Hell or high water. But I have a job I need to hold on to. Does shouting my intent to vote solely for Republicans because Democrats have proven they can’t be trusted with any kind of power make it more or less likely that I keep my livelihood? I see what happens, even to those who seem to have FU money or FU status. I’ve seen far too many celebrities doing those North Korea style apologies to know I’d even get the chance to apologize if I stuck my neck out. I’d just be cancelled and forgotten. And I’m willing to bet there are a lot of people like me, for whom voting is all we have left.
3. Money. Yes, it’s important, but Donald Trump won with far less than Hillary. He came very close with far less than Biden. Republicans benefit from the animosity the left has for them. Their vituperation is free publicity and the difference this year is stark. Democratic policies all fail. I never donate money to Republican causes, but I’ll never again vote for a Democrat. I think it depends on how much you think advertising works. The advertisers claim it does, but they would, wouldn’t they? Maybe some Independents can be swayed by an attack ad or two, but how many of them are going to flat out admit that in public?
Anyway. This could all be completely mistaken. Maybe I don’t have enough contempt for my fellow human beings.
Didnt you watch killchain on hbo or the frontiline expose a month before the election why is that so implausible (they would never poll me though)
I quit answering calls from pollsters for the reasons in Neo’s post and M J R’s comment.
@ Neo > “if the Democrats are going to commit voter fraud in order to win races, it helps if the predictions about the GOP vote versus the Democratic vote are kept artificially low. That way, there would be less suspicion later on when the Democrat wins.”
The corollary is: if the Republicans win big “despite the polls,” then the Democrats will claim conservatives committed massive voter fraud — because suddenly all election procedures and ballots and voting machines magically become suspect again.
In re election fraud: yes, it happens; no, the Democrats will never admit it happens, UNLESS the person “caught red-handed” is a Republican, or they lose.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/yes-voter-fraud-is-real-and-courts-are-cracking-down-on-it
By Quin Hillyer, Commentary Writer
September 19, 2022
Cites actual cases.
Just not enough of them.
The Daily Wire commenters are of the same mind as Neo’s salon, no big surprise.
The “best” comment at this time represents many others:
Cue Pauline Kael.
https://www.commentary.org/john-podhoretz/the-actual-pauline-kael-quote%E2%80%94not-as-bad-and-worse/
by John Podhoretz, February 27, 2011
Perhaps Ms. Kael knew more Nixon voters than she thought– they just didn’t tell her.
However, in her social circles, she was probably correct.
I’m surprised she knew even one.
Podhoretz quoting Kael [AesopFan (11:31 pm)] . . .
“But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.”
Peter Strzok, call your office. We have a mate for you.
SO MANY commenters are direct, concise and “spot on” with their insights.
AesopFan observes “The corollary is: if the Republicans win big “despite the polls,” then the Democrats will claim conservatives committed massive voter fraud — because suddenly all election procedures and ballots and voting machines magically become suspect again.”
There are many possible corollaries. What polling of the Left about Potato-head’s Nazi speech in Philly reveals about Democrats is that they deeply believes their media s$#t don’t stink, they LOVE IT like a MCD Happy meal kid does:
“Most Democrats believe that there are “tens of millions” of “dangerous MAGA Republicans,” a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released in September found.
“The survey followed President Biden’s angry speech in which he demonized millions of Americans, deeming “MAGA Republicans” a great threat to the very “foundations of our republic.” The poll asked voters, “Do you think there are tens of millions of dangerous MAGA Republicans backing violence and trying to overthrow the constitution or is that a gross exaggeration and distortion?”
“While a majority across the board, 54 percent, said that characterization is a “gross exaggeration,” 46 percent believe that there are, in fact, “tens of millions of dangerous MAGA Republicans.”
“But what is more, nearly three-quarters of Democrats, 73 percent, tend to believe Biden’s divisive rhetoric, concluding that there are literally “tens of millions of dangerous MAGA Republicans” who are overtly “backing violence and trying to overthrow the constitution.” Forty-two percent of independents agree with the majority of Democrats, as do 20 percent of Republicans.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/19/poll-majority-democrats-believe-there-are-tens-millions-dangerous-maga-republicans/
How this eventuates into passivity or actively voting — plus, the still secret plan of the Biden Federal-CommieCrats to do for the voter “turnout”* what Zuckerberg and the unions and US Chamber boys did last time for mail-in ballot stuffing can achieve — and you have only urban swings in all the Senate races to guarantee a Leftist victory over their “enemy”, remains a calculus yet to be fathomed.
But gaming it all out, I’m sure they are.
__________
*SEE
https://thefederalist.com/2022/06/23/yes-biden-is-hiding-his-plan-to-rig-the-2022-midterm-elections/
Lately and for some reason that I can’t explain – other than my address and age put me into some kind of desirable demographic – I’m being importuned by the Gallop organization to participate in their regular polls. I’m refusing: and posted about those reasons on Chicagoboyz:
do not believe in or trust any assurances of confidentiality. Not if my legal name and residential address can be associated with my honest responses in any way or form. It’s come to this; a suspicion that any employee of this enterprise, processing responses, might be moved to moved to … do something. Break confidentiality, turn over a list of addresses and names to … whomever, in order to punish an opinion of which they disapprove. I do not trust – and that is rather a sad thing. Polling used to be a rather valuable thing for all sorts of constituencies and customers wanting to know the answers to all kinds of questions, and now they seem to be swimming in a sea of distrust.
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/68233.html
If it is even possible to do a reliable poll (it is), then we know the election was stolen. I confess that I am perplexed that people don’t seem to understand this.
The only possible way that a poll can accurately assess the voting intentions of the electorate is if people of similar demographics vote in similar ways. Otherwise, there is no such thing as a representative sample.
If a representative sample is possible, voting results which vary wildly from the results of other locations with the same demographic profile raise a huge red flag.
The gaslighting on elections has gotten ridiculous. Reality:
1. Democrats have a long, sordid history of election fraud.
2. Every other major democracy in the world requires voter ID.
3. There is zero evidence to support the Democrats’ racist assertion that blacks are too stupid to get a voter ID. Zero.
4. Even if there were people of certain demographics who didn’t have an ID, the remedy — eliminating the most basic election integrity measure — is nonsensical. The obvious remedy is simply to make an effort to reach out to that community to help them get IDs. Democrats have used artillery to kill mosquitos who don’t exist.
5. The dishonesty and lack of good faith demonstrated by Democrats on voter ID extends to every other voting change they have jammed through — voting by mail is the worst. We now mail ballots to addresses that don’t have buildings, to people who don’t exist or have died or moved, and count the votes that are mailed back without the slightest effort to ensure the ballots are honestly cast. This is madness.
The current setup is blatantly fraudulent. To ridicule those who point out this obvious reality is gaslighting or worse. There’s simply no good faith way that anyone can defend this. We need to condemn those who do. Turn over the rock. Expose the cockroaches. And fumigate.
Get in their faces and punch back ten times as hard. There is no moral ambiguity here. Don’t shy from the fight.
“Politics is how we decide who gets to use violence in society.” Elections are all about violence (because every act of government is ultimately an assertion of force backed by violence or the threat thereof). Allowing fraudulent elections is to acquiesce in the use of violence against innocents. All morally decent citizens have a duty to stand against the immoral use of violence by their government.
Sgt. Mom: Agreed.
stan,
I read most of John Fund’s book on election fraud. The book is now over a decade old. It was relatively boring but informative.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004T4LVCE/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title
#2. He covers a trial that occurred in some “middle” state like Ohio or Indiana on the issue of voter ID, which I believe did go into effect and still is.
From memory: The Democrat plaintiff side claimed, as expected, that some blacks don’t have ID. The enacted law provided for free photo ID at any DMV. So the plaintiffs claimed that some can’t get to a DMV.
Amusingly, the judge demanded that they produce some of these people as witnesses in the trial. Also amusing is that the plaintiffs requested a big trial delay so that they could go find some such people.
They produced perhaps 3 or 4 witnesses all of whom did not drive or have photo ID. The judge actually got involved in deposing them if memory serves. It turns out that every single one passed within a block or two of a DMV in their semi-routine travels. The judge ruled in favor of the photo ID law.
I remember the first major political poll. It was 1948 and Gallup predicted that Dewey would beat Truman. Gallup later explained that it was a telephone poll and that many more Republicans had phones than Democrats.
Fast forward 70 years:
“It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed – the response rate – has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.” – Pew Research Center, MAY 15, 2012.
It doesn’t matter if you have a phone if you don’t answer it. Why don’t people answer? Nobody knows cause they ain’t talking.
The Democrat fraud deniers, who double as fraud supporters, should be laughed at on Voter ID. It’s ridiculous that some Dems actually believe many voters are unable to get photo ID.
I don’t remember Phil Ochs, nor his “knock on the door” song, at all, unlike Pete Seeger. Phil died in 1976, age 35 (in Far Rockaway, NYC).
My wife and two of her sisters, while very young, experienced a midnight “knock on the door” as her father was taken prisoner with a kangaroo court, sentenced to work in the Czech uranium mines along with other political prisoners. It’s terrible.
The Dems are becoming the fascists they say they fear, National Socialists against states rights, and demanding “unity” meaning agreement with Democrat policy. Or severe economic penalties.
See also this early retirement of Leslie McAdoo Gordon
https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/she-represented-carter-page
there is no justice to be had in our “justice” system. I am no longer willing to participate in a system that I consider to be a total farce.
My status as a practicing litigator has constrained me from speaking truth to and about the system. With that constraint removed, I will not be silent any longer.
(HT Instapundit? – more good substack stuff)
Count me as a “shy Trump voter” – in the past I would answer those telephone polls. I felt that they often (not always) would need input to know how voters felt.
But, absolutely, with all the hate directed at Trump voters (not just Trump himself) I have not felt safe saying that I voted for him.
And I am totally agreeing I do NOT trust the poll takers. What is their motive for working the polls? Are they simply paid to make calls and neutrally record answers? How do I know that I can trust any of them? How do I know that they won’t either for money or because of their own hate do something against me?
At work, I keep a low profile because I have been very surprised by some higher ups who, otherwise being “normal, intelligent” people, will during a company meeting say something about stupid Trump voters/supporters; or some other such political comment. When I hear such I think two things, the first is how can they believe that everyone thinks like them and that they are not marginalizing some employees with stupid political comments? and the second is I say to myself, “thank goodness I never revealed my political beliefs. Whew!”
While nothing bad has happened to me (yet), it leaves me with a sense of uneasiness. What if I make the wrong move or say the wrong thing? Will I be fired? Will I be on the hook for someone else’s mistake. (I work in a bank, while not common, it is possible for an employee to be held legally liable for certain types of mistakes)
For only the second time (the first was Carter’s and then we could only stand along the parade route) in my life I actually went to a Presidential Inauguration, both because it was Trump and the second was because Trump was the first non-politician elected to the Presidency. That makes it very historic! I felt that I had to go to watch history in the making. But, I didn’t dare share my enthusiasm with any co-workers about watching history being made. Heck, I didn’t even tell my manager why I wanted to day off! I am kicking myself for not buying some off the Trump Inauguration memorabilia such as the Trump winter knit hat and scarf set. First they were a little pricey (that’s to be expected); but, the real reason was I know that I would never feel safe wearing them working in New York. Wearing such Trump “fashion” is really just inviting a knock down. What has our country come to when showing support for a mainstream candidate is a “justifiable” reason to commit violence against someone?
I am reminded of the reporters who conducted research to find out what books Judge Bork checked out of his local library, perhaps, hoping to find some sort of “dirt” on him. It is just now there is even more a threat of violence against ordinary people.