War and fog of war: nuclear plant captured? What’s next?
The fog of war has been unusually thick lately.
I may have the order incorrect, but first we had a report of an attack on the large Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, then that it had been captured by the Russians and was on fire, then that it was an outbuilding there that was on fire, then that the Russians hadn’t captured it after all, and now that it has been captured by the Russians and they are in control of it.
I’m going to assume that last assertion is correct. I’ve read all sorts of things about what the danger is in terms of the plant itself, if Russia were to threaten to do something damaging to it. I don’t know whether the following is true (I got it from a comment to the post I just linked), but I have a sense that it is (and here’s a post I wrote over ten years ago about Chernobyl):
[Zaporizhzhia’s] a VVER reactor. It’s essentially impossible for those to melt down due to damage, by design. Even an explosion would be extremely difficult to trigger, intentionally or otherwise. A leak of radioactive material, yes; the most likely scenario would be clouds of radioactive steam released into the atmosphere in the event of complete containment failure.
But as we saw with Chernobyl, even that isn’t anywhere near as dangerous as decades of anti-nuclear propaganda has been trying to convince us.
But in the larger sense, Russia is holding all of Europe and certainly NATO hostage because Russia is a nuclear power – a huge nuclear power – and its head has pronounced himself willing to use nuclear weapons in this fight. Even if NATO wanted to enter the fray to directly help Ukraine, it is afraid to do so because that would trigger an enormous conflict that might rightly be known as World War III, if people survived to talk about it.
That is the fear that Putin is exploiting to get what he wants. World War II was between non-nuclear powers until the US ended it by using its newly-developed unilateral nuclear force (two atom bombs) against Japan, a country that seemed ready to go on nearly indefinitely and essentially commit suicide while killing enormous numbers of Allies troops. Now, with so many countries armed with nuclear weapons, the situation is quite different because any large-scale engagement risks setting off a huge conflagration, depending on Putin’s state of mind and that of his confederated. And yet not engaging him allows him to take what he wants.
That situation, in turn – as Ukraine’s neighbors watch it fall – will encourage those non-Russian neighbors to arm themselves as best they can, so that when their time comes to be gobbled up by Russia, they can put up a good fight alone.
There are some rumblings (see this and this) that Russians are starting to get the picture of what’s really happening, despite Russian propaganda trying to hide the scope of the invasion from them. How important will protests become? I don’t know, but it’s not as though Putin cares what the people think. What could matter in terms of their effectiveness is whether those with the power to remove him (if any such people exist, and if enough of them disagree with the course he’s taken) will do so and will be able to institute a different and better course.
This is a new era where the doctrine of MAD has been thrown aside. It always depended on each player acting rationally in the interest of their own survival. Putin has now thrown that all out. How does one respond when the other side is willing to blow the whole world up to get what he wants?
And we have the genius of Biden and Harris leading us. God have mercy on us all.
Your last paragraph touches on something I’ve been thinking about for a while: what *is* the power structure in Russia today? I’m not nostalgic for the Cold War much less the Soviet Union but there was a certain sense of order, especially after Stalin. There was a communist party apparatus that drove policy and most of Stalin’s successors were basically apparatchiks carrying it out.
But now? There may be “parties” in Russia but we don’t hear much about them. We know about Putin, we hear about “oligarchs” but how does it all work? Could the “oligarchs” decide they want to remove Putin? If not them, who? How has Putin managed to stay in power such a long time in the first place? Where does the Russian army stand in all of this? I suspect there are a lot of Russians who support Putin because he is the “strong horse”, but Russia has never had democratic values instilled into it in the first place – if a stronger horse emerged they would support that too.
Finally consider that while I am certainly no fan of Putin, if he were replaced his successor could be even worse. A lot of questions, few answers.
From “The Economist” (https://tinyurl.com/2p8rvcsz):
“There is no evidence of damage to the plant’s six reactors, which in normal times supply a fifth of Ukraine’s electricity. When the Russians attacked only three of the six reactors were operating. The two close to the fighting were shut down in response. Now just one is running at 60% capacity.”
Also, according to “The Economist,” Ukraine’s electrical grid isn’t connected to the electrical grids of any neighboring countries.
physicsguy:
Yes, MAD depends on rational people being in charge, plus people who are not trying to destroy everyone else if the world turns against them.
The question is whether Putin has reached that point. Is he that destructive, or is he bluffing in order to get what he wants? I don’t have an answer but I don’t think Europe or the US has an answer either. And everything rides on the answer.
Meanwhile, the mullahs may be getting their own nuclear weapons soon, courtesy of Joe and company.
The reactors are VVER1000s, not RBMKs like at Chornobyl, and have containment vessels. The chances of radiation release are minimal.
FOAF:
You ask “How has Putin managed to stay in power such a long time in the first place?”
Most people seem to say that he does it by killing opponents.
The question of whether or not Putin is willing to use nukes really makes NATO membership somewhat of a moot point. I don’t think Putin would actually use nukes against the West if we decided to intervene in Ukraine but I’m not willing to find out. If Putin attacked a NATO member and NATO responded to the point where Putin was facing a loss, would he then take his marbles and go home? I doubt it.
The best hope seems to be that he is overthrown by oligarchs who are losing to much money. With all the argument about what Putin’s motivation is or was, I haven’t really seen any reasonable solutions on how to stop him. In retrospect it was unbelievably foolish of the West to become so dependent on Russian oil but that doesn’t help us now.
The Kremlin has just passed a new law criminalizing independent news publications.
The BBC, CNN, Twitter, and Facebook have all been shut down.
Demonstrators against the war in Ukraine will receive long prison sentences. Anyone who says that the actions taken against Ukraine is a “war” will be imprisoned.
Russia has returned to the totalitarianism of the Soviet era. What will the Russian people hear about a war that doesn’t exist? Who will risk prison to protest it?
Cornflour:
I don’t know the answer to your questions.
Also, could you give a link?
But I do know that the Russian people have – unlike under the Soviets – become accustomed to a freer life with access to more information. When a police state clamps down on them it will restrict information, but it won’t make them happy – especially as they feel an economic pinch. In addition, it seems to me that blocking information is more difficult these days.
Although our own left is trying to do so, as well, with some success.
On the other hand, deposing Putin would be hard for the people to do. It’s really up to the oligarchs or those right under Putin, and I don’t know their state of mind or their opportunities to get rid of him even if they wanted to.
A terrible terrible mess.
Gregory Harper:
The west becoming dependent on Russian oil wasn’t just incredibly stupid in retrospect. It was obviously stupid at the time.
Not that it matters now, but Trump told Europe as much.
Regarding the Ukrainian nuclear reactor, I see Putin as capable of destroying it but see no useful purpose to doing it.
neo states, Putin ” has pronounced himself willing to use nuclear weapons in this fight.” and “That is the fear that Putin is exploiting to get what he wants.”
That’s true but IMO incomplete. Putin’s implied willingness to use nuclear weapons in this fight is designed to send an unmistakable and unequivocal message to the West; Ukraine really is a red line for Russia and Russia is not going to allow the Ukraine to join NATO. Period end of story.
Unspoken is the underlying rationale; if Russia allows NATO to occupy the Ukraine/Russian border, it’s just a matter of time till Russia falls under the control of the West. It doesn’t matter whether that perspective is correct, all that matters is that is the commonly held view of the Russian government.
Cornflour,
The Kremlin stated that ‘fake news’ is now criminalized in Russia. Obviously, Putin and his associates decide what is fake news and that is certain to include anything critical of Putin and Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. That said, do you agree that the BBC, CNN, Twitter, and Facebook eliminate any news contrary to the narrative, so essentially they only engage in fake news?
Most people seem to say that he does it by killing opponents.
I think the Chechen separatists were dealt with with great force (not sure there was any alternative). Alexei Navalny’s been subject to assassination attempts and some opponents have been killed abroad. As a general rule, I don’t think Putin’s been that bloody.
For the most part, he’s made satisfactory though not flawless decisions and Russia’s grown prosperous under his rule. The regime is more pluralistic than has been the norm in Russia since 1789, though less so than the late czarist period and the Gorbachev-Yeltsin period. He seems to have thrown it all away over this.
neo on March 4, 2022 at 5:54 pm said:
Cornflour:
… Also, could you give a link? …
AP News is a place to start (https://tinyurl.com/mrycn4nc).
Unspoken is the underlying rationale; if Russia allows NATO to occupy the Ukraine/Russian border, it’s just a matter of time till Russia falls under the control of the West. It doesn’t matter whether that perspective is correct, all that matters is that is the commonly held view of the Russian government.
The Ukraine’s not a member of NATO and Russia has been working overtime for the last 8 years to alienate the Ukraine and to cut the advocates of a Russian orientation off at the knees in Ukrainian politics. Yes it does matter if the perspective is correct; the perspective is lunatic.
My comments on your final post hold with this post.
I would add that we and Canada are not doing well vs Civil Liberties right now either. And shutting down access. I know not like Russia, but we have stronger ties to freedoms, that now seem to be cast aside.
Russia accounts for about 11% of the export trade in oil in this world. Oil is fungible, so supply interruptions here there and the next place will be reflected in price. The question is how robust is the supply chain if Russian shipments to Europe are interrupted.
“The west becoming dependent on Russian oil wasn’t just incredibly stupid in retrospect. It was obviously stupid at the time.” neo
Agreed but only is you reject the prevailing argument, which was and still is that the mortal threat of climate change demands whatever measures are required to bring it under control.
Reportedly, Klaus Schwab is on record stating that reducing the world’s population to 1 billion will be needed to accomplish that goal.
Most of the West’s current political leadership are associated with Schwab’s WEF and supportive of the Davos agenda. Whether that explicitly and publicly endorses Schwab’s opinion I don’t know. Privately? No one’s saying.
Neo and AF JAG retired:
Thanks for pointing out that the reactors are VVER, pressurized water design, with containment vessel, and not the graphite moderated Chernobyl type design. I got that very important detail wrong.
Keeping the spent fuel safe and secure is pretty important, but it is somewhat self protecting, as dose rates from unshielded spent fuel are lethal very quickly. Now if you intentionally blow up those spent fuel assemblies, that would be quite the mess.
Geoffrey Britain:
Even if one believed that “the mortal threat of climate change demands whatever measures are required to bring it under control”, becoming dependent on Russian oil did zero for that goal. How would simply switching the source of the fossil fuels, rather than the amount consumed, change anything?
this episode illustrates with frightening clarity why everything possible should be done to prevent the mullahs from getting nukes. Unfortunately Biden & co are doing the opposite. Heaven help us. And heaven help Israel.
“it’s not as though Putin cares what the people think. ”
An uncommon disagreement here. Putin puts in lots of effort to get Russian people to think the way he wants them to think.
To support him, and his policies.
He’s willing and able to lie as well as censor those who disagree – because he does care.
If a large majority of people disagree with this war, I doubt that would change Putin’s policies, tho it might.
The US and Canada deep states also care what people think, as well as wanting to make disagreement very uncomfortable. Caring what people think is not the same as doing what other people think you should do.
Sort of like how “are you listening to me” is often merely a euphemism for “are you going to do what I say”? Parents, or superiors, might often say this: “Did you hear me?” to mean “that’s an order.”
I listen to people I disagree with, and occasionally change my mind – but not very often.
Mass anti-war protests in Russia would be good at helping to make Russia lose sooner.
but it’s not as though Putin cares what the people think.
But to some extent, he does care. Hence Alexander Navalny is locked up in the slammer, and another rung in Mr. Putin’s ladder would undoubtedly be the termination of Navalny, were there thought to be any chance of him emerging and stirring up Russians in some wrong direction.
Tom Grey:
Actually, we don’t disagree about that. What I meant by saying that Putin doesn’t care what the people think was about this Ukraine excursion – that is, that he is determined to do it even if they were to protest mightily. He doesn’t feel like he has to take a poll.
However, he is also trying to keep the truth from them in order to make his path easier. But he doesn’t care about their opinions except in that very pragmatic sense. He wants the least possible amount of trouble from them. But he could not care less, otherwise, whether they actually agree with him or not, were they to know what’s actually going on.
What matters most is what his inner circle thinks, the ones who may have the power to disobey orders and betray him in various ways.
@ Art Deco > ” The question is how robust is the supply chain if Russian shipments to Europe are interrupted.”
We may find out soon.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ocean-carriers-cut-off-russia/
@ Gregory > “In retrospect it was unbelievably foolish of the West to become so dependent on Russian oil but that doesn’t help us now.”
Somebody who surprisingly agrees with you.
https://notthebee.com/article/elon-musk-calls-for-immediate-increase-in-oil-and-gas-output
Well, it’s a surprise to people whose only question about their choices is “What’s in it for me?”
Not that it will hurt him down the line to increase fossil fuel output right now, because I suspect he knows that his cars can only be produced with that type of energy, no matter what they run on.
@ Cornflour > “Ukraine’s electrical grid isn’t connected to the electrical grids of any neighboring countries.”
It’s absurd of people to worry that Putin wants to destroy the nuclear power plants. As GB says, that serves no useful purpose.
He only needs to shut them down.
Denial of the basics of life, i.e., scorched earth military policy when on the enemies’ territory is a very old tactic. Very old. The Ukrainians need to be de-Nazified remember? Why should Vlad care about those Ukrainian Nazis after all?
If Vlad is forced to leave Ukraine, he will destroy everything he can on the way out. German behavior when retreating from areas of France they had occupied in WWI comes to mind.
A very old, very common behavior of an invading army when forced to retreat, if they have time, is to destroy everything they cannot steal. Recall the Iraq army leaving Kuwait. Vlad will destroy the nuke plants if he is forced to leave. Saddle the Ukrainians with cleanup and rebuilding costs.
Will Vlad be forced to retreat? Will the Ukrainians bleed his army in an insurgency? Will Vlad give the urban areas of Ukraine the Grozny treatment?
But NATO!
@ Neo “How would simply switching the source of the fossil fuels, rather than the amount consumed, change anything?”
The same physics applies that dictates that their private planes don’t emit any dreaded hydrocarbons, but YOUR commercial flights do.
And that their million-dollar mansions on the seacoasts won’t be submerged by rising oceans, but YOUR shack on the beach will.
And that closing down petroleum processing won’t eliminate their designer clothing, sparkling water bottles, the plastic in their electric cars, and most of their pharmaceuticals.
You just have to know the laws of physics in their fantasy world, which operate along the same lines as Magic.
As Glenn Reynolds said many years ago, “I’ll believe it’s a crisis when the people who tell me it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis.”
Many people have noticed that his maxim applies to Covid rules as well.
https://instapundit.com/271760/
A reminder from the commenters: “One reason the Paris Agreement is a sham is because it requires no action from the first and third largest carbon dioxide emitters (China and India).”
And it wasn’t new news even then:
“Tim Blair was calling it the ThermoMansion 10 years ago. Remember Tim?
snopes.com Feb 28, 2007 – Gore’s mansion, located in the posh Belle Meade area of Nashville, consumes more electricity every month than the average American household uses in an entire year…”
(The Snopes link is dead now.)
A couple of illustrations –
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8cb8a88c1ca849de630cf7548bce87cfc65c50b5b57ec8d625460b4f8a99fe46.png?w=800&h=481
https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=https%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-wiQLSL554Jc%2FWYMeIfxSTVI%2FAAAAAAABH9o%2FZR2dEOh4xaEsBm1B8YM_06y07BPcRrZwQCLcBGAs%2Fs1600%2F5ej1o1501765683.png&key=slXXzAWq28r7_m7NJAsUBg&w=800&h=478
PS The “magic” in shutting down US energy production and then buying oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and possibly soon Iran, is in which wizard is waving the wand, and getting paid for it.
And, since this is a Russian post, I’ll throw in this comment – because I doubt anything has changed since then:
Hmmm. That kind of reminds me of our government servants as well.
Somebody I know even wrote a post about it!
https://www.thenewneo.com/2021/09/30/the-new-aristocrats-masks-for-the-masses-liberty-for-us/
Somebody I don’t know wrote one as well.
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-masking-of-the-servant-class?s=r
“While AOC’s revolutionary and subversive socialist gown generated buzz, the normalization of maskless elites attended to by faceless servants is grotesque.”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd1fce9d85b83fdfde2549d2e7359f02331414980be8ce58bed113235d3b6018.jpg?w=600&h=297
“It’s absurd of people to worry that Putin wants to destroy the nuclear power plants. As GB says, that serves no useful purpose.”
Some seem to have forgotten a basic characteristic of war:
“War is hell.” W.T. Sherman
It is even more so when instigated and practiced by a despot IMO.
FYI
https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/03/04/vladimir-putin-makes-bizarre-and-desperate-appeal-for-normalized-relations-and-the-end-of-sanctions-n531854
If Vlad is forced to back down bet on an unexpected series of accidents in all Ukrainian infrastructure that is under Vlad’s control, including the nuclear power stations.
@ om – your comment to me, and the one preceding, are well taken; I was referring, as I think Geoffrey was, to the current situation – shutting down the plant would destabilize the Ukraine citizens and military a lot, but leave it operable once he took control.
If he’s forced out, as you say, all bets are off.
As to whether or not he would go scorched earth out of pique – or to forestall retaliation from Ukraine – that’s a known unknown, as are your other three questions.
om > “Will Vlad be forced to retreat? Will the Ukrainians bleed his army in an insurgency? Will Vlad give the urban areas of Ukraine the Grozny treatment?”
https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/03/04/putin-isnt-hitler-but-he-sure-seems-to-have-studied-his-playbook/#comment-2611213
om > “If Vlad is forced to back down bet on an unexpected series of accidents in all Ukrainian infrastructure that is under Vlad’s control, including the nuclear power stations.”
The price of that in today’s world might be higher than he wants to pay.
However, I don’t intend to bet on anything; if Kagan can’t get it right, I certainly can’t, other than through blind chance.
https://www.thenewneo.com/2022/03/04/putin-isnt-hitler-but-he-sure-seems-to-have-studied-his-playbook/#comment-2611158