He doesn’t give any actual links to the source data, either.
If you (mkent) want to persuade me of your position, don’t make me grub around in some general direction looking for what MIGHT have been the numbers that convinced you.

As the saying goes: Links or it didn’t happen.

Does the UK MOD have the ability to do anything actionable with their knowledge about shipping, such as Russian shadow fleet ships moving through the English Channel? Nope and not. Sorry, another topic of rue Brittania.

My sources for this particular blog comment were the UK Ministry of Defense and Lloyds of London. They both have access to systems which can track ships worldwide without relying on AIS transponders.

”Why do you think NBC says traffic may be higher and ships might manipulate their GPS trackers?”

Perhaps NBC’s sources rely on AIS transponders whose signals are picked up either locally in the Gulf or by satellites. Those systems are designed to track only cooperative targets and will not see ships that don’t want to be seen.

”You say it doesn’t depend on transponders.”

There are satellite systems which can track ships worldwide without relying on the ships’ AIS transponders. Turning off those transponders — or even not having them at all — will have no effect on those systems. They are specifically designed to track uncooperative vehicles.

”But I actually don’t think any of us knows how many ships are getting through, except that it’s fewer than it used to be.”

It’s not just “fewer than it used to be.” It’s dropped from 148 on Feb 28th to about three or four on a typical day the last month or so.

From NBC:

NBC News is tracking the daily count of how many ships pass through the strait. Note that exact numbers may be higher; some ships manipulate their GPS trackers during transit.

So, you say that’s not your source. You don’t say what your source is, however. There are plenty of competing sources; which are correct? Do you really know?

You say it doesn’t depend on transponders. Why do you think NBC says traffic may be higher and ships might manipulate their GPS trackers? Do the trackers not matter? How is that different from transponders? Do you think NBC would manipulate data to make Trump or the Strait traffic look better than it actually is? I certainly don’t think that would be their aim. But I actually don’t think any of us knows how many ships are getting through, except that it’s fewer than it used to be.

There are alternate routes to the Strait, but they can’t handle the same capacity. However, there are also proposed alternate routes, because Iran can’t be allowed to control this vital chokepoint.

That is false. Ships don’t need transponders in order to be tracked.

”For example, NBC News three days ago counts only a few ships through the strait but…”

Once again you assume I use the mainstream media as a source.

https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/08/06/get-this-the-navy-is-now-3-d-printing-drones-aboard-ship-n2205290

More Tech, less Wow.
https://www.marineinsight.com/us-warship-3d-prints-1000-parts-and-12-flight-ready-drones-in-just-2-weeks-at-sea/
“The company used its containerised xCell manufacturing platform to produce drone components, repair parts and other equipment while the ship was operating in the Pacific.

The trial was aimed at reducing dependence on shore-based supply chains by allowing crews to make required parts closer to where they are needed.”

And it is useful for other things as well.
“More than 20 crew-requested items were manufactured during the voyage. These included deck tie-down inspection gauges, reverse-engineered valve handwheels, electrical covers, cable hardware, door components, a Starlink deployment mount and a nonconductive digging knife for explosive ordnance disposal teams.”

For the TinFoilHatBrigades: There are bills and regulations being bruited to outlaw 3-D printing of guns and associated parts, per the anti-2A wishlist, but some people who have looked into the phraseology point out that it’s loose enough to allow the government to monitor, and potentially suppress, ANYTHING. The mechanism is by “registering” the pattern instructions that are shared on the internet and “vetting” them for “suspicious” algorithms.

But ONLY for assault weapons and scary shooty things, donchaknow.
Yeah, right.

So, will the Government Gun Grabbers end up arresting SecNav?

Is physicists like Lee Smolin 🙂 He writes better than he calculates.

Webb findings of galaxies that shouldn’t exist

Models have evolved, as predicted. It is no longer a crisis. Data will do that.

Nobody is counting ships with transponders off until long after they have passed through the strait. If you check your ultimate sources, they will have that caveat. For example, NBC News three days ago counts only a few ships through the strait but admits

Note that exact numbers may be higher; some ships manipulate their GPS trackers during transit.

“Some” and “may be higher” are doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Iran is not able to do anything about ships with transponders off.

Reporters also are not doing any real reporting. They’re just going to the same websites we go to that tell you where the ships with transponders on are. They can’t see the ones with transponders off and so they can’t give you the real count just because you read it “in the news”.

Bloomberg’s articles are paywalled but they are telling a little more of the story because they are finding where the oil is ending up. It didn’t teleport to its destination.

This being the Internet of course some will interpret that I must be saying that the real traffic is at 100%, and I am not. I am saying that you have to read carefully and look past the narrative for the little admissions that show the story is not all they would like you to believe.

You shouldn’t say things about my link that aren’t true. My link is to a long article co-authored by 25 physicists who have compiled a list of longstanding open problems in physics as well as commenting that the narrative you put forth here was not generally true for physicists, but was spread by popularizations to the public.

Important to remember that what you read about a field from outside is not necessarily representative of how insiders see it. We’ve talked about Gell-Mann amnesia before, but it’s hard to shake.