HC68: “Geographically and culturally, regime change in Iran is hard to make happen.” This reminded me that the British could not subdue the Colonies because geographically we were just too large, and as a people, just too ornery – plus we did have the capability of making or obtaining our own arms.

Which leads me to … your additional remark: “I’m honestly not sure what the best course of action is in this.” Perhaps finding a way to deliver about 3 million rifles, with scopes, and 1000 to 2000 rounds each, to a suitable group of partisans might even the score in regard to fighting and subduing or turning the IRGC?? Mossad might be able to sort out just who inside Iran is deserving of this largess.

But as mkent points out, we ought not delay in doing so.

Russia is building 60,000 to 80,000 Shahed drones and over a thousand ballistic and cruise missiles a year. It can make the Iranian mullahs the dominant military force in the region by giving them a small fraction of that.

As long as Russia is a military power its allies will be too.

The Iranian Naval and Air Forces are never going to be able to be reconstituted to their former power in the way they were, at least if pressure is kept up. Likewise a generation or two of senior leadership and a good chunk of their nuclear infrastructure has been devastated. That doesn’t mean that all is well or is guaranteed to win, but it does mean that the campaign’s already had a bunch of effects that have been pretty heavily underplayed by the media, as well as others.

I wouldn’t say the IRGC or IRI are dead, but they might be on Death’s Door and several of their capacities are already dead.

Bullies have no friends.

IRGC is, at bottom, a bully.

IRGC members may well believe that they can maintain power via
— hostage-taking, near and far
— blowing up stuff, near and far
— blowing up people who displease them, near and far
— firing missiles at other countries, near and far
— threatening multinational corporations — and!!!! their CEOs!!!!!!

It is not going to work.

I do not know much, but I am reasonably sure that bullying Kings and CEOs is not a formula for longterm success.

The IRGC/ IRI is dead; they may not all know it yet.

Totally unexpected and unanticipated, almost like the sun coming up in the morning.

CC™ had a great opportunity, being 4/1/2026, to say anything positive about President Trump. But he ain’t that clever.

If this ends with the regime still in place, still in possession of its enriched uranium, and still in control of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, it will be impossible to spin it as a victory.

If the Iranian regime survives, this was all for nothing, as was expressed repeatedly. Russia will have restocked them in a year.

— Unwilling Barkis

Unfortunately, it’s always been a high chance that the regime would survive in some form, short of ground troops and occupation. I hope for better, but I’ve always feared that the outcome would leave them in charge. Geographically and culturally, regime change in Iran is hard to make happen.

Regime change in other countries is not up to us, but rather to the citizens of those countries.

— rbj2

It doesn’t matter whose responsibility it is. The question is where do America’s interests lie. States change other states’ regimes regularly, when they see their interests in play.

One of the reasons 911 happened was that the Middle Eastern world perceived Saddam Hussein as having defeated George Bush I. Note that I didn’t say Iraq defeated America. After 1992, GWHB was gone and Hussein was still in power, and in the mindset of the region, that meant Hussein had defeated the Great Satan.

(The Romans used to have the same issue. A defeated power didn’t see themselves as having been defeated by/surrendered to the Republic, they saw themselves as submitting to one particular general or consul or person, and as soon as he died/left office, as far as they were concerned all obligations lapsed.)

It may in fact be effectively impossible for us to make regime change happen in Iran, given the cold limitations of national will and public indifference, but that doesn’t alter how it would be perceived elsewhere. If we leave with some recognizable version of the regime in charge, a lot of our enemies will see America has having been defeated again.

I’m honestly not sure what the best course of action is in this.