Comments on: Is the Iranian government in its death throes or not? https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/ A blog about political change, among other things Sun, 11 Jan 2026 16:32:33 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 By: Brian E https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837127 Sun, 11 Jan 2026 16:32:33 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837127 Israel recognizes and is preparing for the likelihood the Islamic regime in Iran will lash out against Israel with ballistic missile attacks as it loses control internally.

Day 828 – Iran threatens Israel as anti-regime protests hit 2-week mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maidaYzZ7ww

]]> By: Brian E https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837125 Sun, 11 Jan 2026 16:26:41 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837125 The adage, whoever controls the army controls the country is still true. There have been reporting that some IRGC militias have defected and the regime has redirected the regular IRGC to internal control and has also imported Hezbollah into Iran as crowd control. Discussion here indicates the military hasn’t defected. Until that happens the regime can maintain its status as leader of the country.

Compare this to the Ukraine “Revolution of Dignity”. It took 4 months to reach the crescendo of Feb. 21– and the Berkut police basically disbanding. In addition, the western Ukrainians were raiding armories and arming themselves. As long of the Islamic regime is willing to shoot its countrymen– whether internally or with outside troops and the Iranians remain without the military capability to fight the regime, the mullahs can continue.

The question remains whether the Trump administration or the IDF can target the leadership of the IRGC and decapitate the military in sufficient quantity to cause massive defections.

ILTV On The Hour – January 11, 2026 | Iran Erupts: Trump Issues Warning, Israel Prepares for Fallout
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziK_z1TUGTE

]]> By: Mattsky https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837104 Sun, 11 Jan 2026 12:09:24 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837104 The IRGC needs to switch sides. I don’t know how the demonstrators can win otherwise.

]]> By: Sennacherib https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837025 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 18:22:20 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837025 If a regime resorts to mass deadly force they have lost, even the threat makes them losers.

]]> By: sdferr https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837024 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 18:21:54 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837024 Mike Doran, Hudson Inst.: https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/ayatollahs-regime-crumbling-michael-doran

No matter what happens next, there is no scenario in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact. Too much has happened; too many uncontrollable yet intersecting factors are conspiring to erode the regime’s power. But that does not mean that revolution is inevitable and Iran will blossom into a free open society once more.

The Islamic Republic has faced mass unrest before. Over the past 15 years, it has weathered repeated nationwide protest cycles. Each time, the pattern held: Demonstrations surged, the security services cracked down violently, and opposition networks fragmented. The regime survived intact.

That history matters—but it no longer governs the present moment.

The Islamic Republic is dying. It may suppress this round of protests. The leadership may survive this year. But it will not emerge from 2026 with its authority, cohesion, or capacity preserved.

]]> By: Chuck https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837010 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 16:08:56 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837010 not been one single demonstration

When the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia, I went to a protest in NYC. There were maybe two dozen people standing in a drizzling rain. Protests are a left wing industry.

]]> By: JohnTyler https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837005 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 15:07:25 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837005 What exactly can the USA do to assist Iranians seeking to overthrow the mullahs?

Anyone notice that there has not been one single demonstration on any college campus in the USA in support of the Iranian people seeking to overthrow the mullahs ???
Ditto for demonstrations in support of the average Venezuelan citizen?

]]> By: physicsguy https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2837000 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 14:15:55 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2837000 And what does Tucker say? The Babylon Bee has the answer:

https://babylonbee.com/news/tucker-carlson-dumbfounded-why-iranians-protesting-most-amazing-government-on-planet

]]> By: richf https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2836986 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 08:23:09 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2836986 I’m old enough to have seen several Middle Eastern governments fall – their successors were seldom an improvement.

]]> By: Rufus T. Firefly https://thenewneo.com/2026/01/09/is-the-iranian-government-in-its-death-throes-or-not/#comment-2836977 Sat, 10 Jan 2026 04:41:57 +0000 https://thenewneo.com/?p=146682#comment-2836977 God bless the citizens of Iran and God bless Elon Musk for making X a free speech platform!

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