Comments on: Demonstrations in Iran – once again

By: Richard Aubrey

Richard Aubrey — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 22:08:16 +0000

Kate
Somebody was firiing. If it was regular army troops, that’s one thing. If it’s IRGC oir similar internal security forces as military-like formations, it’s another.

By: Kate

Kate — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 14:26:27 +0000

I saw reports this morning that police or troops have been firing on protesters. If the military doesn’t support the uprising, it will fail.

By: Sennacherib

Sennacherib — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 12:23:38 +0000

The protesters have won, what they’ve won is to be seen. This changed everything.

By: TJ

TJ — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 11:21:50 +0000

RELATED, from JNS TV “It’s Happening! Iranians Take To Streets, Call For End of Khamenei” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tWX3Jf1gzM

Middle East analyst Harold Rhode joins IDF Spokesman (Res.) Doron Spielman to unpack why today’s protests may be different, why Iranians are shouting “Death to Khamenei” in the streets and how secret coordination between President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Mossad may be fanning the flames.

By: Ray Van Dune

Ray Van Dune — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:33:31 +0000

Jimmy was a real dumbass.

By: Occasional Commenter

Occasional Commenter — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 23:51:30 +0000

Bill Wilson asked why the oil fields haven’t been attacked.

If/when the mullahs are overthrown, the new regime will need a source of funds. Oil is the most readily available. If the oil fields are destroyed, a new regime may fail if it can’t keep the lights on. Then, you have a destitute failed state.

Thus, keeping the oil fields intact is an investment in the future.

By: Richard Aubrey

Richard Aubrey — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 21:33:44 +0000

Many dictatorships, at least since the beginning of the twentieth century, have had two armed forces. One is the regular army (and navy and air force) in the conventional sense, oriented outward. The other belongs to the Party. The MVD/NKVD/MGB/FSB in Russia have all maintained at least a cadre for light infantry forces to offset any issues there may be with the regulars and to maintain internal security.
The Germans had the Wehrmacht and the, among others, SS. It was later that the SS was showing up wiht conventionally organized combat units. Once the war(s) get started, the internal guys are running around shooting deserters or setting up machine guns behind regular units to make sure they attack as ordered.
The IRGC is the internal force and is probably well-enough armed on a small unit level. But they are unlikely to be able to take on the regulars all at once. They have to nip in the bud any irregularities they might see.
So the regulars overthrowing the regime would be both unlikely–coordinating would be difficult withhout the IRGC hearing it getting started. Then local enforcement prior to aid from other regular formations.
But we aren’t doing landlines and FM radio any longer. Or not entirely. If every squad leader in the regular army was on his cell phone at the same time…what’s to do. And they might be because….something happening in a given place can be spread faster than the origin can be shut down.
And maybe not all of the IRGC guys will show up as ordered. Everybody has relatives who may be getting the shorter and shorter end of the stick. And Iran’s basic culture is not Arab.

By: Kate

Kate — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 20:30:42 +0000

The regime of the mullahs in Iran began before my children’s births. May it end. The same to the Communist regime in China, which began the year of my own birth. I’d like to see the end of that before my own.

By: chazzand

chazzand — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 19:29:59 +0000

I’m trying to be optimistic about Iran. 1) Remember Nicolae Ceau?escu was firmly in power when lo and behold on Christmas Day 1989 he was overthrown and quickly executed. As you alluded to Neo, the military turned against him. Too late for a Christmas Miracle but we haven’t had Orthodox Christmas yet. (yes, facetious) I’m reminded of this because (I think it was you, Neo) of an article I read about the phenomenon of Preference Cascade. 2) Obama was president when Iran experienced significant turmoil some years back. He did nothing. Although Trump may not be able to do anything to facilitate an overthrow, I’ve learned over the years to not underestimate him. (See: election day, 2016 etc, etc)
Ironically the spark that started the Romanian uprising was a perceived injustice done to a Roman Catholic priest. Romania is overwhelmingly Romanian Orthodox. The Preference Cascade was ready and waiting.

By: Sennacherib

Sennacherib — Wed, 31 Dec 2025 18:33:45 +0000

The key is the regular armed forces, they at the least must be intensely jealous of the IRGC. The protesters need them to take on the IRGC. If the IRGC wins they rule not the mullahs.