neo

“collapsed” isn’t a single-meaning word in this context,
Note what happened at the end of WW I. German troops went back to Germany and…in the European Usual tradition–borders got shoved around some and the bigs didn’t miss a meal. Then Germany was left to run its own affairs.

Perhaps that was the generals’ view of “collapse”. No big deal,

Quite possibly.

One of the complaints, fair or not, from Germans after WW I was that they were excessively punished for doing or attempting to do exactly the same kind of thing Britain and France had done to build their own world empires. There is a certain amount of truth in that observation.

At the same time, Germany had been no kinder to Russia after the Russian collapse a year or so before, either.

Instead, they converted the damned foolishness into the most horrible war imaginable.

— Richard Aubrey

Not all by themselves they didn’t.

Yes, they could have stayed home. Every participant in the war could have done something different, but in each case there were pressing reasons why they thought it was necessary to do what they did.

Draconian is after WW II. And they’ve been very, very good people since.

By the armistice, American industry could produce 21000 aircraft per month. Only about 3400 made it to Europe before wars end.

of course the Soviets had been training German troops on their soil, a detail the Abwehr had used to provoke the purges of top staff, whether Stalin believed it was immaterial, the French General Staff and many industrialists were still working out their anti Dreyfusard sentiments, you get some of that sentiment, with some early Alan Furst novels, many of the political class, not only the Cliveden set, but the likes of Lord Halifax, were resistent to intervene,

Churchills clique were certainly out of office, of course Chamberlain’s gambit, did allow for the interval of rearmament, fwiw,

Now, my Brit friends will certainly have a stroke if I mention it, but perhaps the prospect of five million fresh American troops getting ready for 1919 might have had an effect.

In any event, my point is that the Germans had no historical example, certainly the most recent, to equate “collapse” with anything much more severe than having to go back where they came from again.

Balck, supposedly the best German general nobody ever hear of, mused during his second ultimately unsuccessful invasion of France that if Carl’s kingdom/empire had not been divided, none of this would be necessary. IOW, it’s a tragedy that not all of Europe was Germany. And that, poor Germany, surrounded by stronger enemies and always forced to strike first. Guys like this were wandering around loose.

Point being, they get to invade whomever they want and if it doesn’t work out, back home and figure out a better way next time. Perfectly acceptable. Why should 1939 be any different? Why should their frequent enemies hold a grudge?

It took far more destruction in WW II to accomplish the “collapse”. Which is to say total destruction of Germany military forces and Allied armies (stronger than ever) practically everywhere before a “surrender”–not a treaty or armistice–could be enforced. No conditions.

My point is that, based on European history, the Germans had no reason to picture this as a possibility. So it was worth a shot. Plus, they get to Holocaust a b bunch of people. What’s not to like?
See World War Two for the real thing.

Wiki
The Kiel mutiny (German: Kieler Matrosenaufstand) was a revolt by sailors of the German High Seas Fleet against the maritime military command in Kiel. The mutiny broke out on 3 November 1918 when some of the ships’ crews refused to sail out from Wilhelmshaven for the final battle against the British Grand Fleet that the Admiralty had ordered without the knowledge or approval of the German government. The mutineers, who saw the planned battle as a futile “death voyage”, took over Kiel with workers’ and soldiers’ councils and then helped spread them across Germany. The German Revolution that was triggered by the councils swept aside the Hohenzollern monarchy within a few days, brought about the end of the German Empire and led to the establishment of the Weimar Republic.
…

Following the Allied successes during the Hundred Days Offensive, the new German government under Prince Max of Baden, at the insistence of the Supreme Army Command, asked President Woodrow Wilson on 5 October 1918 to mediate an armistice. One of Wilson’s preconditions was the cessation of Germany’s submarine war. Despite the objections of Admiral Scheer, the Chief of the German Admiralty Staff, the government made the concession on 20 October, and the submarines at sea were recalled on 21 October.[12] The following day, Scheer, on his own authority and without the knowledge of the new German government,[13] ordered Admiral Hipper, commander of the High Seas Fleet, to prepare to attack the British with the main battle fleet, reinforced by the newly available submarines. Hipper’s order was promulgated on 24 October, and Scheer approved it on 27 October.[14] The fleet then began to concentrate at Schillig Roads off Wilhelmshaven to prepare for the battle.
…

Detachments of revolutionary sailors moved out from Kiel to all major German cities beginning on 4 November. They encountered almost no resistance in their takeover of civil and military power; only in Lübeck and Hanover did two local commanders attempt to maintain military discipline by force of arms.[33] On 6 November, Wilhelmshaven was in the hands of a workers’ and soldiers’ council; by 7 November all the larger coastal cities plus Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart and Munich were as well. King Ludwig III of Bavaria was overthrown on the same day, making him the first German federal prince to fall.[34] The revolution reached Berlin on 9 November, and on the same day the abdication of Emperor Wilhelm II was proclaimed. By the end of the month, the dynastic rulers of all the other German states had abdicated without bloodshed.[35]

It was the treaty process that got their minds right. Had to give up the Saces, Al and Lorraine, and the B-L territory went back to Russia. Or wherever. Had to pay a fine and promise not to do it again. And got to run their own affairs including many of those involved in the late unpleasantness.

This was pretty light, considering; Bismarck observed that if there were to be another major European war it would be due to some “damned foolishness” in the Balkans. True. But if you try to follow how the Balkan usual got loose into the rest of Europe (The Balkans produce more history than they can consume locally.), you will find no iron chain dragging Germany into it, It was completely optional. They had plans, yes, on how to do something. That’s one function of the military command; be ready for anything. But the plan TO use their central position, industrial sector, man power, professional military to attack everybody they could find on a map was entirely voluntary. Nothing prevented them from staying home. Instead, they converted the damned foolishness into the most horrible war imaginable
Got off easy. Kaiser abdicated with the family plate. The Hapsburgs didn’t miss many dinners. They and the Hohenzollerns are still duking and princing, marrying money, making the society pages, don’t need any silly 9-5 to keep bread on the table.

That’s why “unconditional surrender” was the WW II goal. Some people you just can’t…..

So my view of what the German officers might have thought of as collapse is not that they foresaw what happened after WW II, but a couple of battalion fights and some scolding. The European Usual.

For a view of what the Allies thought in the second go-round, see on youtube, “Your Job In Germany”. Pick the twelve-minute one. It’s to orient occupation troops as to their jobs and the reasons for them. Pretty severe. Surprisingly, the film “Our Job in Japan” has a completely different tone.

I’m not sure why their offhand remarks offered without evidence would outweigh Churchill’s evidence in six massive tomes, which despite their length are very much worth your time to read. It has appendices full of government documents backing his assertions.

@Gordon Scott: My understanding was that the Germans didn’t really feel defeated in November 1918.

Another myth. Their economy was in tatters thanks to the Allied blockades (that was one reason they had a “famine” to deal with), their armies were surrendering and retreating everywhere under Allied attacks, and their allies had already collapsed. They made the best arrangement they could before their own total collapse.

Countries that aren’t defeated are very rarely occupied and starving.

After the war, yes people did try to create a “stab-in-the-back” myth to explain what happened. But during the last year of the war and immediately after the war they had few illusions about who had won, because the industrial regions of Germany were occupied by foreign soldiers until 1930, and the blockade continued until 1919.

Some commentators, on the Allied side, thought the treaty was a recipe for another war in 20 years. They were correct. But Woodrow Wilson was an ass, and very confident in his own wisdom. He didn’t care what others thought.