Comments on: Open thread 3/14/2025

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Mon, 17 Mar 2025 06:28:25 +0000

@ Mike Plaiss > “[Betsy DeVos] has a good old fashioned Letter to the Editor”

She also refers to an article by Kim Strassel that is even better.
https://archive.md/gxZZD#selection-5775.0-5775.77
“Trump’s School Choice
The Department of Education needs to be abolished to get kids learning again.”
By Kimberley A. Strassel
March 6, 2025 5:45 pm ET

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Mon, 17 Mar 2025 06:22:12 +0000

@ physicsguy > ” Nothing can be better for science than a whole slew of data showing an established theory may be wrong”

Are you saying the science isn’t settled!??! 😉

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Mon, 17 Mar 2025 06:15:40 +0000

@ Brian E > “even with the expense of retaliatory tariffs, bringing manufacturing back to the US is a net positive to the economy and the government.”

Michael Lind generally supports that synopsis.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/tariffs-good-trump-china

By: buddhaha

buddhaha — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 19:57:32 +0000

Dax-
Simple solution; move to AZ. You’ll fit in.

By: Dax

Dax — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 04:42:15 +0000

President Trump was on FIRE today, speaking at the DOJ and vowing to end the political weaponization of the justice system and the intelligence community.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/03/14/president-trump-delivers-a-speech-from-the-department-of-justice/#more-270101

By: Dax

Dax — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 03:39:40 +0000

I have decided to RESIST Trump the Authoritarian, by not setting my watch to Daylight Saving Time. This will also save me the trouble of resetting it in November. Hope I’m not late to all my appointments!

By: Philip Sells

Philip Sells — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 01:54:08 +0000

Now, I send a large gratitude to writer Grunt for above generous salubrity.

By: Banned Lizard

Banned Lizard — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 00:58:38 +0000

Should there be arrests for the massive vote fraud of 2020? It's almost a rhetorical question. The Commander in Chief says yes. In a just world, yes. Will there be arrests? We shall see where this goes.

By: Tom Grey

Tom Grey — Sat, 15 Mar 2025 00:43:26 +0000

Economists are almost all on board with Free Trade as better than tariffs.
Most also agree that printing money/ too much govt debt is bad and, because of hyperinflation, like Zimbabwe or Weimar, hugely destructive.

None seem quite able to explain how Japan can, without inflation, have a debt/gdp ratio of over 250%. Economist predictions don’t have nearly as good a record as physicists, who we see either Hubble news might also have theories which make bad predictions.

I think a trade war would be bad, but is preferable to a shooting war. Using tariffs to get other countries to drop tariffs seems fine, but moving to a higher tariff/ lower income tax world is pretty uncertain.

Thanks, Brian E, for asking Grok for a plausible pro-tariff scenario. I’d guesstimate its likelihood, or better, at only about 10%, calling it a very positive result, with low positive being about 40%, low negative being 45%, and very negative being only 5%. 50/50 on plus minus, but a bit more high plus upside.

Nobody knows.
All who claim to be sure should have their prior predictions closely looked at—did they predict the 2008 financial crash, as Dr. M. Burry did (becoming a billionaire)? If not, why should we believe them more than Grok? I certainly don’t believe Grok, either, but don’t disbelieve the prediction just because it’s ai.

As I think about reputations and who to believe, and why, lots of Nobel winning economists have been wrong on lots of policy outcomes they’ve predicted in the past. Including how bad Trump 45’s tariffs would be, when the actual outcomes looked pretty good.

Since nobody knows, competing plausible scenarios are good, but unfortunately need a good number of words to Wade thru.

By: om

om — Fri, 14 Mar 2025 23:57:00 +0000

BFD