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	Comments on: Open thread 12/20/2024	</title>
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	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: Karmi		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778813</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Karmi]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Dec 2024 02:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778813</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thanks om...quite interesting.

More Russian troops have and are dying than most will admit. I think the &quot;200,000 Russian troops have been killed in the war, and 240,000 wounded&quot; is low on the killed, and am amazed at that wounded number. Example:
&lt;blockquote&gt;In modern conflicts, the ratio of wounded to killed is typically around 3:1 to 5:1. This means that for every soldier killed, 3 to 5 are wounded.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I have seen that &quot;240,000&quot; number before, and believe it was from Keith Kellogg. A private doesn&#039;t know the wounded to killed ratio, but a &quot;three-star general&quot; should—which gives me pause on what he says. However, I do like how CDR Salamander put that article together...quite informative. 

Strongly agree with your observation that Russia&#039;s having to bring in North Koreans to help them shows Putin isn&#039;t willing to go full draft mobilization—ISW&#039;s reasoning has been that the Russian people are not going to go for that, and Putin knows it. Ukraine is killing more Russians monthly than Russia can replace.

Ukraine has suffered serious losses also, but they are fighting smartly for their survival, planning for a free future, and creating all kinds of new fighting methods—hence, also strongly agree with the &quot;technological overmatch.&quot;
****************
OT - site seemed like it crashed earlier. I couldn&#039;t get back in to edit a comment, and kept getting error messages about the site. Had to reenter my name, email, and website info before posting this comment. Just posted, and my info was saved.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks om&#8230;quite interesting.</p>
<p>More Russian troops have and are dying than most will admit. I think the &#8220;200,000 Russian troops have been killed in the war, and 240,000 wounded&#8221; is low on the killed, and am amazed at that wounded number. Example:</p>
<blockquote><p>In modern conflicts, the ratio of wounded to killed is typically around 3:1 to 5:1. This means that for every soldier killed, 3 to 5 are wounded.</p></blockquote>
<p>I have seen that &#8220;240,000&#8221; number before, and believe it was from Keith Kellogg. A private doesn&#8217;t know the wounded to killed ratio, but a &#8220;three-star general&#8221; should—which gives me pause on what he says. However, I do like how CDR Salamander put that article together&#8230;quite informative. </p>
<p>Strongly agree with your observation that Russia&#8217;s having to bring in North Koreans to help them shows Putin isn&#8217;t willing to go full draft mobilization—ISW&#8217;s reasoning has been that the Russian people are not going to go for that, and Putin knows it. Ukraine is killing more Russians monthly than Russia can replace.</p>
<p>Ukraine has suffered serious losses also, but they are fighting smartly for their survival, planning for a free future, and creating all kinds of new fighting methods—hence, also strongly agree with the &#8220;technological overmatch.&#8221;<br />
****************<br />
OT &#8211; site seemed like it crashed earlier. I couldn&#8217;t get back in to edit a comment, and kept getting error messages about the site. Had to reenter my name, email, and website info before posting this comment. Just posted, and my info was saved.</p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778799</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Dec 2024 01:38:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778799</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Brian E and Karmi:

You might want to read 
&lt;b&gt;I&#038;W of the Next Trump Administration&#039;s Approach to Russia and Ukraine - cdrsalamander&lt;/b&gt;

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations

https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations?utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=email

cdrsalamander addresses the demographics of Russia and Ukraine.

It is substack so although I am a paid subscriber I cannot paste section for you,  You can read it as a guest IIRC.  

My observations are 1) if Russia has so vast a manpower supply why have they been forced to rely on North Koreans in their ham handed bloody approach to take back the Kursk salient and 2) Ukraine has been serious already about fighting the Russians and have lost 100k casualties.  

When isolationists quake about conflict escalation in response to Vladdy&#039;s threats regarding weapons supplies for Ukraine to seriously contest Russian aggression it is hard not to be contemptable about the motives of the isolationists.  Ukraine cannot wage a attritional war against Vladdy without technological overmatch.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian E and Karmi:</p>
<p>You might want to read<br />
<b>I&amp;W of the Next Trump Administration&#8217;s Approach to Russia and Ukraine &#8211; cdrsalamander</b></p>
<p><a href="https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations" rel="nofollow ugc">https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations</a></p>
<p><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations?utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=email" rel="nofollow ugc">https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations?utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=email</a></p>
<p>cdrsalamander addresses the demographics of Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<p>It is substack so although I am a paid subscriber I cannot paste section for you,  You can read it as a guest IIRC.  </p>
<p>My observations are 1) if Russia has so vast a manpower supply why have they been forced to rely on North Koreans in their ham handed bloody approach to take back the Kursk salient and 2) Ukraine has been serious already about fighting the Russians and have lost 100k casualties.  </p>
<p>When isolationists quake about conflict escalation in response to Vladdy&#8217;s threats regarding weapons supplies for Ukraine to seriously contest Russian aggression it is hard not to be contemptable about the motives of the isolationists.  Ukraine cannot wage a attritional war against Vladdy without technological overmatch.</p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778798</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Dec 2024 01:37:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778798</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Brian E and Karmi:

You might want to read 
&lt;b&gt;I&#038;W of the Next Trump Administration&#039;s Approach to Russia and Ukraine - cdrsalamander&lt;/b&gt;

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations

https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations?utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=email

cdrsalamander addresses the demographics of Russia and Ukraine.

It is substack so although I am a paid subscriber I cannot paste section for you,  You can read it as a guest IIRC.  

My observations are 1) if Russia has so vast a manpower supply why have they been forced to rely on North Koreans in their ham handed bloody approach to take back the Kursk salient and 2) Ukraine has been serious already about fighting the Russians and have lost 100k casualties.  

When isolationists quake about conflict escalation in response to Vladdy&#039;s threats regarding weapons supplies for Ukraine to seriously contest Russian aggression it is hard not to be contemptable about the motives of the isolationists.  Ukraine cannot wage a attritional war against Vladdy without technological overmatch.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian E and Karmi:</p>
<p>You might want to read<br />
<b>I&amp;W of the Next Trump Administration&#8217;s Approach to Russia and Ukraine &#8211; cdrsalamander</b></p>
<p><a href="https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations" rel="nofollow ugc">https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations</a></p>
<p><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations?utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=email" rel="nofollow ugc">https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/i-and-w-of-the-next-trump-administrations?utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=email</a></p>
<p>cdrsalamander addresses the demographics of Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<p>It is substack so although I am a paid subscriber I cannot paste section for you,  You can read it as a guest IIRC.  </p>
<p>My observations are 1) if Russia has so vast a manpower supply why have they been forced to rely on North Koreans in their ham handed bloody approach to take back the Kursk salient and 2) Ukraine has been serious already about fighting the Russians and have lost 100k casualties.  </p>
<p>When isolationists quake about conflict escalation in response to Vladdy&#8217;s threats regarding weapons supplies for Ukraine to seriously contest Russian aggression it is hard not to be contemptable about the motives of the isolationists.  Ukraine cannot wage a attritional war against Vladdy without technological overmatch.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brian E		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778689</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian E]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 17:43:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778689</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Karmi, I&#039;m glad you&#039;re understanding President Trump&#039;s position on ending the war.
 
If Ukraine were serious about having a strong position to negotiate an end, the would immediately lower the mobilization age to 18.
 
The would signal to the Russians they are all in. Their tepid response to their manpower shortages on the front lines is painfully obvious. Since August Russia has captured about 2,000 sq km in the eastern fronts and taken back about half the area in Kursk that Ukraine captured then (Ukraine now holds about 600 sq km).
I don&#039;t think there was ever a question the west that they wouldn&#039;t arm Ukraine to defend the new border (where ever that line was established in the negotiations).

This is only a fraction of the problems Ukraine faces. Ukraine only has the resources to pay for half of their government obligations. 
In total the western countries have provided Ukraine with $149 billion in financial assistance, and $145 billion in military equipment.

Even after war is ended, Ukraine is going to need massive amounts of aid going forward.

 https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karmi, I&#8217;m glad you&#8217;re understanding President Trump&#8217;s position on ending the war.</p>
<p>If Ukraine were serious about having a strong position to negotiate an end, the would immediately lower the mobilization age to 18.</p>
<p>The would signal to the Russians they are all in. Their tepid response to their manpower shortages on the front lines is painfully obvious. Since August Russia has captured about 2,000 sq km in the eastern fronts and taken back about half the area in Kursk that Ukraine captured then (Ukraine now holds about 600 sq km).<br />
I don&#8217;t think there was ever a question the west that they wouldn&#8217;t arm Ukraine to defend the new border (where ever that line was established in the negotiations).</p>
<p>This is only a fraction of the problems Ukraine faces. Ukraine only has the resources to pay for half of their government obligations.<br />
In total the western countries have provided Ukraine with $149 billion in financial assistance, and $145 billion in military equipment.</p>
<p>Even after war is ended, Ukraine is going to need massive amounts of aid going forward.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778684</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 17:27:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778684</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s your sign, CC<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2122.png" alt="™" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" />.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s your sign, CC™.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Bauxite		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778683</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bauxite]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 17:21:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778683</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[om you said I&#039;m &quot;oh so concerned that establishment Republicans are not in power.&quot; 

Sorry. That is a bad faith misrepresentation.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>om you said I&#8217;m &#8220;oh so concerned that establishment Republicans are not in power.&#8221; </p>
<p>Sorry. That is a bad faith misrepresentation.</p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778671</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 15:54:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778671</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Bauxite:

I don&#039;t misrepresent your intent, you consistently focus on what you judge to be President Trump&#039;s flaws, failures, and foibles.  You choices over time earned the sign.


&lt;blockquote&gt;
There are a lot of things to be happy about, but if this is the best the GOP can do after an administration that deserves to go down with Buchanan administration as the worst in American history, then kiss it all goodbye.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Sometimes it feels like Ahab and the Moby Dick, Bauxite.

So the problem is the GOP?  Deep concerns indeed.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bauxite:</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t misrepresent your intent, you consistently focus on what you judge to be President Trump&#8217;s flaws, failures, and foibles.  You choices over time earned the sign.</p>
<blockquote><p>
There are a lot of things to be happy about, but if this is the best the GOP can do after an administration that deserves to go down with Buchanan administration as the worst in American history, then kiss it all goodbye.</p></blockquote>
<p>Sometimes it feels like Ahab and the Moby Dick, Bauxite.</p>
<p>So the problem is the GOP?  Deep concerns indeed.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Bauxite		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778669</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bauxite]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 15:33:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778669</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Liz: om and others here consistently misrepresent my intent. I don&#039;t have a very high opinion of Trump. That&#039;s it. His governing style is a combination of chaos and boldness that results in a few wins, a lot of messes, and a great deal of public fatigue outside of the MAGA faithful. (The CR mess going on right now being just one example.) Trump doesn&#039;t adequately plan for the complexities of government as it actually exists, which severely limits what he is able to accomplish. 

I also believe that his completely unnecessary boorish behavior kisses away large numbers of voters. We just had four years of a senile Joe Biden followed by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as the Democratic nominee, and this resulted in a GOP candidate winning the popular vote by less than 2% and a razor thin House majority. There are a lot of things to be happy about, but if this is the best the GOP can do after an administration that deserves to go down with Buchanan administration as the worst in American history, then kiss it all goodbye.

So anyway, om, Art Deco, and others consistently misrepresent me as some kind of GOPe hack. Art Deco regularly accuses me of working on behalf of &quot;handlers.&quot; Of course that&#039;s all ridiculous. I&#039;m not GOPe at all.  Haley?  I wasn&#039;t wild about her as anything other than a vehicle to much larger majorities than Trump won. Mitt?  Nah. Jeb!?  No thanks. On the other hand, Vance?  I&#039;ve been a supporter for years. DeSantis?  Yes please!  

Change is necessary, but so is competence. That&#039;s all. Sometimes it really does feel like there&#039;s a cult of personality around Trump.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Liz: om and others here consistently misrepresent my intent. I don&#8217;t have a very high opinion of Trump. That&#8217;s it. His governing style is a combination of chaos and boldness that results in a few wins, a lot of messes, and a great deal of public fatigue outside of the MAGA faithful. (The CR mess going on right now being just one example.) Trump doesn&#8217;t adequately plan for the complexities of government as it actually exists, which severely limits what he is able to accomplish. </p>
<p>I also believe that his completely unnecessary boorish behavior kisses away large numbers of voters. We just had four years of a senile Joe Biden followed by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as the Democratic nominee, and this resulted in a GOP candidate winning the popular vote by less than 2% and a razor thin House majority. There are a lot of things to be happy about, but if this is the best the GOP can do after an administration that deserves to go down with Buchanan administration as the worst in American history, then kiss it all goodbye.</p>
<p>So anyway, om, Art Deco, and others consistently misrepresent me as some kind of GOPe hack. Art Deco regularly accuses me of working on behalf of &#8220;handlers.&#8221; Of course that&#8217;s all ridiculous. I&#8217;m not GOPe at all.  Haley?  I wasn&#8217;t wild about her as anything other than a vehicle to much larger majorities than Trump won. Mitt?  Nah. Jeb!?  No thanks. On the other hand, Vance?  I&#8217;ve been a supporter for years. DeSantis?  Yes please!  </p>
<p>Change is necessary, but so is competence. That&#8217;s all. Sometimes it really does feel like there&#8217;s a cult of personality around Trump.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Karmi		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778625</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Karmi]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 11:03:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778625</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Brian E – you missed the &quot;key words&quot; at the very beginning of the article:
&lt;blockquote&gt;US president-elect’s closest foreign policy aides indicate he will &lt;b&gt;continue arming Ukraine while pursuing end to war&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

The NATO comment is probably a bargaining chip for Trump. Then:
&lt;blockquote&gt;Trump now intends to &lt;b&gt;maintain US military supplies to Kyiv after his inauguration&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

We&#039;ll see how that goes, but he has clearly notified Russia that the US will continue to give arms to Ukraine—starting right after his &quot;inauguration&quot; and to continue even after a &quot;ceasefire.&quot;

And ref your comment – Trump talks out both sides of his mouth at times, so yes, I will be watching closely to see if he can &lt;b&gt;PRODUCE&lt;/b&gt; on his claim that he will stop the Russian reinvasion of Ukraine in &quot;one day.&quot; 

Perhaps you should reread the article...I used Epic Browser to get past paywall.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian E – you missed the &#8220;key words&#8221; at the very beginning of the article:</p>
<blockquote><p>US president-elect’s closest foreign policy aides indicate he will <b>continue arming Ukraine while pursuing end to war</b></p></blockquote>
<p>The NATO comment is probably a bargaining chip for Trump. Then:</p>
<blockquote><p>Trump now intends to <b>maintain US military supplies to Kyiv after his inauguration</b></p></blockquote>
<p>We&#8217;ll see how that goes, but he has clearly notified Russia that the US will continue to give arms to Ukraine—starting right after his &#8220;inauguration&#8221; and to continue even after a &#8220;ceasefire.&#8221;</p>
<p>And ref your comment – Trump talks out both sides of his mouth at times, so yes, I will be watching closely to see if he can <b>PRODUCE</b> on his claim that he will stop the Russian reinvasion of Ukraine in &#8220;one day.&#8221; </p>
<p>Perhaps you should reread the article&#8230;I used Epic Browser to get past paywall.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brian E		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/12/20/open-thread-12-20-2024/#comment-2778562</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian E]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Dec 2024 04:43:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=138550#comment-2778562</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Karmi- Did you read the article you linked to?

From the article:

&lt;blockquote&gt;While Trump still believes Ukraine should never be given membership of Nato, and wants an immediate end to the conflict, the president-elect believed that supplying weapons to Kyiv after a ceasefire would ensure a “peace through strength” outcome, they added.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Note the key words-- &lt;b&gt;&quot;wants and immediate end to the conflict&quot;&lt;/b&gt; and &quot;supplying weapons after a ceasefire would ensure a &lt;b&gt;&quot;peace through strength&quot;&lt;/b&gt; outcome...&quot;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Karmi- Did you read the article you linked to?</p>
<p>From the article:</p>
<blockquote><p>While Trump still believes Ukraine should never be given membership of Nato, and wants an immediate end to the conflict, the president-elect believed that supplying weapons to Kyiv after a ceasefire would ensure a “peace through strength” outcome, they added.</p></blockquote>
<p>Note the key words&#8211; <b>&#8220;wants and immediate end to the conflict&#8221;</b> and &#8220;supplying weapons after a ceasefire would ensure a <b>&#8220;peace through strength&#8221;</b> outcome&#8230;&#8221;</p>
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