Comments on: So, what about those polls?

By: Gordon Scott

Gordon Scott — Sun, 10 Nov 2024 21:00:24 +0000

Agree with Miguel that Michelle is overrated. She’s popular so long as people don’t see much of her.

Keeping in mind one might do well betting against my intuition, back at the end of September I was pretty sure Trump would win going away. I watched Mark Helperin and Rasmussen Reports. Both said campaign internals showed Kamala’s bounce wasn’t real. Both predicted pollsters would show the race tightening as the election got closer.

Kari Lake is wicked smart. She’s a tiny thing, and men do not fear her. But when she turns that steely glare at women, they break out in cold sweats. She does not suffer fools. And the McCainiacs have not forgotten her insult. Make her press secretary. Or get her some diplomatic experience and make her ambassador to the UN.

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 05:12:14 +0000

I’m going to stick this link here and on the 11/08 open thread.
I can’t speak to the author’s citation of the resurgence of the band Creed, but he’s spot on with the rest of his evidence.

https://thefederalist.com/2024/11/08/culture-did-a-way-better-job-of-signaling-trumps-win-than-broken-polls/

By: Another+Mike

Another+Mike — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 01:07:54 +0000

@ John Tyler– Perhaps “voted for Harris” has a bit of inaccuracy to it. Not that it is your fault. If one were to factor out all the votes that landed on Harris were votes “against Trump” we might know how many actually voted *for* Harris. The against Trump crowd doesn’t need to know about Harris’ “accomplishments” or proposed policies to vote against Trump.

By: Wendy+Laubach

Wendy+Laubach — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 00:49:43 +0000

I’m amused by ads saying a product can produce a numerical result of “up to X or greater,” which pretty much covers the waterfront. Similarly, it’s hard to be proved wrong on a prediction that either side might win, and it might be by either a large margin or small. Thanks, experts!

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 22:11:03 +0000

@ Skip > “And it’s as obvious as day 2020 should have been Trump’s victory.”

https://babylonbee.com/news/4d-chess-democrats-admit-trump-actually-won-in-2020-and-is-now-unable-to-serve-third-term

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 22:09:57 +0000

@ huxley > “Democrats didn’t expect the Orange Hitler to win the EC and popular vote. Now they don’t know what to do.”
Agreed.
The rationale for riots would have been that Trump didn’t win the popular vote so clearly his victory was illegitimate and Russia, Russia, Russia.
The PV win undercut all their excuses.

By: huxley

huxley — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:56:48 +0000

Getting both [popular vote and Electoral College] is a Big Deal.

–Richard Aubrey

It wasn’t a Nixon or Reagan blow-out, but it is a Big Deal. Especially the popular vote.

That’s why our cities aren’t burning at the moment.

Democrats didn’t expect the Orange Hitler to win the EC and popular vote. Now they don’t know what to do.

By: Richard Aubrey

Richard Aubrey — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:47:43 +0000

“win” versus “blowout”. I’d submit that a republican winning the electoral college portion of the election without also winning the national numbers is possible and, iirc, has happened,
And the reverse, losing the EC portion while, at least theoretically, getting the popular vote is possible. That would require some unlikelihoods piled one atop another. But constitutionally possible.

Getting both is a Big Deal. To win the popular vote, you need unprecedented numbers in blue or blue-is areas, and very strong GOTV in red areas. I would suggest the former is fodder for, at least, discussion. The origin as well as the numbers. The same, of course, for various demographics. If a republican won due to massive straight, male turnout and other sectors remained the same (maybe theoretically possible), that would mean a lot less going forward.

However, that’s not what happened. Some blue went from prussian blue to robins egg blue, and some demographics cut loose from the commanded vote. And of those groups, if things improve for them, the change in hue and independent thinking may be permanent.

So, relative numbers notwithstanding, this could be called a blowout.

By: Lee

Lee — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 19:42:04 +0000

Hey Chris B–
Yes, there are outstanding votes.
Not twenty million–but maybe you should do the math.
You’ll see there is till going to be a eight-ten million vote shortage 2024 /excess in 2020.

He “won” by 43,000 votes in five states.

Easily folded in to that nine million ghost votes.

Trump won due to two things–HUGE GOTV effort by NON RNC entities (Charlie Kirk’s TurningPoint being one; Scott Presler’s impressive PA efforts another) which due to a Marc Elias law suit, can now be legally coordinated with the RNC, AND getting rid of Ronna McDonnell, replacing her with Lara Trump and Michael Whatley, thus having pollwatchers and lawyers EVERYWHERE–and addressing every single complaint of fraud immediately and forcefully.

TOO BIG TO RIG–
and
They Only Win If They Cheat. (and they couldn’t)

Good job, Patriots!

By: J.J.

J.J. — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 19:35:38 +0000

I agree with what John Tyler said on November 8, 2024, at 9:17 am.

This was a solid win, but not a blowout and not a Red Wave. The resistance is already gearing up. Enjoy the moment but realize that there will be much more to do. We’ve won a battle. Many more remain to be fought.