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	Comments on: Open thread 11/2/2024	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:57:18 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Karmi		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769946</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Karmi]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:57:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769946</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Sticking by my &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769816&quot; rel=&quot;ugc&quot;&gt;amateur forecasting&lt;/a&gt; comment yesterday that Trump wins this one. Haven’t made any calls on Senate or House this year since Presidency winner is about all I could handle. 

Interesting Daily Mail (&lt;i&gt;their poll shows Trump 80% &#038; Harris 20% but RWM is no more trustworthy than MSM this year&lt;/i&gt;) article – &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14037285/Polling-DonaldTrump-Kamala-Harris-election-day.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow ugc&quot;&gt;Veteran strategist reveals major factor all pollsters are &#039;missing&#039; as he predicts secret wave on eve of one of the closest presidential elections in history&lt;/a&gt;. Er, a “secret wave” this time? Alex Castellanos says:
&lt;blockquote&gt;.. pollsters are overlooking a huge shift in Republican voter registration..

&#039;I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. They are all missing something because they&#039;re giving us the same poll over and over again&#039;, he said.

&#039;What I think they are missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. 

&#039;31 states have voter registration by party, 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement towards Republicans.

&#039;Yet we are getting these surveys that are off base. I&#039;m not going to call it a wave but I think there&#039;s a &quot;&lt;b&gt;wavelet&lt;/b&gt;&quot; out there of Republican enthusiasm in registration.&#039;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

OK – a &quot;&lt;b&gt;wavelet&lt;/b&gt;&quot; this time instead of the dreaded ‘&lt;i&gt;Red Wave&lt;/i&gt;’ forecasts that disappointed so many.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sticking by my <a href="https://www.thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769816" rel="ugc">amateur forecasting</a> comment yesterday that Trump wins this one. Haven’t made any calls on Senate or House this year since Presidency winner is about all I could handle. </p>
<p>Interesting Daily Mail (<i>their poll shows Trump 80% &amp; Harris 20% but RWM is no more trustworthy than MSM this year</i>) article – <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14037285/Polling-DonaldTrump-Kamala-Harris-election-day.html" rel="nofollow ugc">Veteran strategist reveals major factor all pollsters are &#8216;missing&#8217; as he predicts secret wave on eve of one of the closest presidential elections in history</a>. Er, a “secret wave” this time? Alex Castellanos says:</p>
<blockquote><p>.. pollsters are overlooking a huge shift in Republican voter registration..</p>
<p>&#8216;I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. They are all missing something because they&#8217;re giving us the same poll over and over again&#8217;, he said.</p>
<p>&#8216;What I think they are missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. </p>
<p>&#8217;31 states have voter registration by party, 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement towards Republicans.</p>
<p>&#8216;Yet we are getting these surveys that are off base. I&#8217;m not going to call it a wave but I think there&#8217;s a &#8220;<b>wavelet</b>&#8221; out there of Republican enthusiasm in registration.&#8217;</p></blockquote>
<p>OK – a &#8220;<b>wavelet</b>&#8221; this time instead of the dreaded ‘<i>Red Wave</i>’ forecasts that disappointed so many.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769911</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Nov 2024 06:31:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769911</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s a slow Sunday night, so I&#039;ll go OT in OT...

Here&#039;s a guy I find amusing and addictive who describes his journey through guitar with emphasis on gear in tasty 10 minute videos: This is typical Mike Cole:

&lt;i&gt;--Mike Cole, &quot;Why Guitar Players HATE Jimi Hendrix&quot;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ts2ePmYEQ4&lt;/i&gt;

By HATE he means &quot;Having Appreciation That&#039;s Earned.&quot;

He&#039;s a young black player whose big influences were Stevie Ray Vaughn, Eric Clapton and John Frusciante.

Then Cole discovers his Big Three all revered Jimi Hendrix and covered his song, &quot;Little Wing.&quot; &lt;i&gt;Swoon.&lt;/i&gt;

Cole has a lightbulb flash moment. He creates a great tribute to Jimi Hendrix.

Perhaps too much inside guitar. There&#039;s some wild subcultural stuff happening on YouTube.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a slow Sunday night, so I&#8217;ll go OT in OT&#8230;</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a guy I find amusing and addictive who describes his journey through guitar with emphasis on gear in tasty 10 minute videos: This is typical Mike Cole:</p>
<p><i>&#8211;Mike Cole, &#8220;Why Guitar Players HATE Jimi Hendrix&#8221;<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ts2ePmYEQ4" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ts2ePmYEQ4</a></i></p>
<p>By HATE he means &#8220;Having Appreciation That&#8217;s Earned.&#8221;</p>
<p>He&#8217;s a young black player whose big influences were Stevie Ray Vaughn, Eric Clapton and John Frusciante.</p>
<p>Then Cole discovers his Big Three all revered Jimi Hendrix and covered his song, &#8220;Little Wing.&#8221; <i>Swoon.</i></p>
<p>Cole has a lightbulb flash moment. He creates a great tribute to Jimi Hendrix.</p>
<p>Perhaps too much inside guitar. There&#8217;s some wild subcultural stuff happening on YouTube.</p>
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		<title>
		By: ymarsakar		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769872</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ymarsakar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Nov 2024 01:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769872</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I am so happy Om is still on Earth. That means many gifts can be given to theem to repay karma in the years to come.

Om has a lot tof pain, parasits, and trauma in their life that they deal with by aggravating and criticizing people online. I am sure this behavior has not changed all that much. Without peersonal self worth and healing, it would not. They remind me of a younger 2006 Ymar. That is why I will give theem special treatment in th bifurcation heh, given my new powers and status.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am so happy Om is still on Earth. That means many gifts can be given to theem to repay karma in the years to come.</p>
<p>Om has a lot tof pain, parasits, and trauma in their life that they deal with by aggravating and criticizing people online. I am sure this behavior has not changed all that much. Without peersonal self worth and healing, it would not. They remind me of a younger 2006 Ymar. That is why I will give theem special treatment in th bifurcation heh, given my new powers and status.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769856</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Nov 2024 00:17:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769856</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Re: Iowa poll -- Harris +3

Jim Melcher:

Agreed. That poll doesn&#039;t make sense. I&#039;ve been watching too. However, it did tank the Polymarket betting market from 60-40 (Trump-Harris) to 55-45 (T-H).

Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. I&#039;m still betting on Trump. Whatever tricks the Dems have left will be during or after the election.

Kamala Harris is the worst presidential candidate in my lifetime, probably in all of our history. Democrats should be ashamed.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: Iowa poll &#8212; Harris +3</p>
<p>Jim Melcher:</p>
<p>Agreed. That poll doesn&#8217;t make sense. I&#8217;ve been watching too. However, it did tank the Polymarket betting market from 60-40 (Trump-Harris) to 55-45 (T-H).</p>
<p>Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. I&#8217;m still betting on Trump. Whatever tricks the Dems have left will be during or after the election.</p>
<p>Kamala Harris is the worst presidential candidate in my lifetime, probably in all of our history. Democrats should be ashamed.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Barry Meislin		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769853</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Barry Meislin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Nov 2024 23:51:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769853</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Sounds right. 
The problem is it won’t even have to “seem believable”….

(Remember all those statisticians who claimed that the “results” of the 2020 “election” were statistically highly improbable—or did they say, “statistically impossible”?—even the ones who insisted they weren’t Trump supporters… Hmm. Wonder whatever happened to those guys…)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sounds right.<br />
The problem is it won’t even have to “seem believable”….</p>
<p>(Remember all those statisticians who claimed that the “results” of the 2020 “election” were statistically highly improbable—or did they say, “statistically impossible”?—even the ones who insisted they weren’t Trump supporters… Hmm. Wonder whatever happened to those guys…)</p>
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		<title>
		By: Jim Melcher		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769844</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Melcher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Nov 2024 22:48:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769844</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I have been following Mark Halperin’s 2 Way show on YT this fall. He was all excited this morning about a new Ann Selzer poll showing IA flipping to Harris. This sounded too weird, so I dug deeper and found this:

https://open.substack.com/pub/skeshel/p/my-take-on-harris-3-in-iowa-and-the?r=1n1to2&#038;utm_medium=ios

Keshel calls it a psy-op, and I have to agree. It fits the pattern we have been seeing for the past few weeks of media weaving a narrative to make a Harris victory, should she be able to steal one, seem believable.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have been following Mark Halperin’s 2 Way show on YT this fall. He was all excited this morning about a new Ann Selzer poll showing IA flipping to Harris. This sounded too weird, so I dug deeper and found this:</p>
<p><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/skeshel/p/my-take-on-harris-3-in-iowa-and-the?r=1n1to2&#038;utm_medium=ios" rel="nofollow ugc">https://open.substack.com/pub/skeshel/p/my-take-on-harris-3-in-iowa-and-the?r=1n1to2&#038;utm_medium=ios</a></p>
<p>Keshel calls it a psy-op, and I have to agree. It fits the pattern we have been seeing for the past few weeks of media weaving a narrative to make a Harris victory, should she be able to steal one, seem believable.</p>
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		<title>
		By: David+Foster		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769842</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David+Foster]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Nov 2024 22:35:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769842</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The sad case of Peanut the Squirrel reminded me of a post I wrote in 2014: Forcing a student to stay doors in a wet swimsuit in Minnesota, issuing parking tickets to burned-out cars in Sweden, and an interesting SF story.

Attack of the Robot Bureaucrats:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/42083.html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The sad case of Peanut the Squirrel reminded me of a post I wrote in 2014: Forcing a student to stay doors in a wet swimsuit in Minnesota, issuing parking tickets to burned-out cars in Sweden, and an interesting SF story.</p>
<p>Attack of the Robot Bureaucrats:<br />
<a href="https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/42083.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/42083.html</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Kate		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769827</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kate]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Nov 2024 20:28:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769827</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Encouraging news from the UK. Kemi Badenoch has been elected leader of the Conservative Party.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/uk/uk-conservative-leadership-contest-results-intl/index.html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Encouraging news from the UK. Kemi Badenoch has been elected leader of the Conservative Party.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/uk/uk-conservative-leadership-contest-results-intl/index.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/uk/uk-conservative-leadership-contest-results-intl/index.html</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Kate		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769825</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kate]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Nov 2024 19:43:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769825</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;And they can never prove it with a transcript.&quot; No problems; they just alter the transcripts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;And they can never prove it with a transcript.&#8221; No problems; they just alter the transcripts.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Wendy+Laubach		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/11/02/open-thread-11-2-2024/#comment-2769823</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wendy+Laubach]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Nov 2024 19:29:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137906#comment-2769823</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;I musta said something wrong&quot;--Women, amiright?  Always upset about how I don&#039;t take responsibility for something I blurted out, or whatever it is they&#039;re upset about this time. And they can never prove it with a transcript.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I musta said something wrong&#8221;&#8211;Women, amiright?  Always upset about how I don&#8217;t take responsibility for something I blurted out, or whatever it is they&#8217;re upset about this time. And they can never prove it with a transcript.</p>
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