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	Comments on: Open thread 10/28/2024	</title>
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	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2769084</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Oct 2024 08:33:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2769084</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[One more thought on the Game Plan: the Left works out their strategies as if they were Europeans. It is important to note that the Plan must be read with Acme Secret Message Glasses: anytime they say &quot;Trump&quot; will or might do something, read that as &quot;We&quot; will or should do that thing.

Here&#039;s why their plan cannot be implemented as smoothly as they anticipate (nothing here is new, but it never hurts to repeat the basics).

Most importantly, Hitler&#039;s rise in Germany involved a governmental system that does not exist in the United States, although the Democrats are working to overcome that disadvantage. However, there are other differences as well:
(1) He manipulated and then dominated a nation that is smaller than Texas -- one of 50 states, not all of which are happy with the imposition of tyranny from the Left or the Right.
(2) Germans were deprived of personal weapons as an early order of business.
(3) The National Socialists (to give them their proper name) were supported by many prominent academics, jurists, politicians, and business leaders. -- Okay, they got me on this one.
(4) After taking power, he was able to &quot;legally&quot; eradicate all other political parties, organizations, and labor unions within three months. I&#039;m not sure that&#039;s possible in the US.

There are probably more points, and the argument has been developed in many places, but the main thing is to remember that the Left learned from Hitler, and that they do not actually fear that Trump &#038; Republicans will do any of the things they propose, as Lee demonstrates in his post.


(1) https://s3.amazonaws.com/thetruesize.com/mockup.html#?borders=1~!MTY2NDcxODM.ODczNDczNw*MzIzOTQyOTI(NTY5MzEyMA~!CONTIGUOUS_US*MTAwMjQwNzU.MjUwMjM1MTc(MTc1)Mg~!IN*NTI2NDA1MQ.Nzg2MzQyMQ)MA~!CN*OTkyMTY5Nw.NzMxNDcwNQ(MjI1)MQ~!DE*ODUzMzE5Nw.MTI1MDIxNTQ)Mw
(2) https://www.nationalreview.com/2013/12/how-nazis-used-gun-control-stephen-p-halbrook/
(3) Browse the internet at your leisure.
(4) https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adolf-Hitler/Dictator-1933-39]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One more thought on the Game Plan: the Left works out their strategies as if they were Europeans. It is important to note that the Plan must be read with Acme Secret Message Glasses: anytime they say &#8220;Trump&#8221; will or might do something, read that as &#8220;We&#8221; will or should do that thing.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s why their plan cannot be implemented as smoothly as they anticipate (nothing here is new, but it never hurts to repeat the basics).</p>
<p>Most importantly, Hitler&#8217;s rise in Germany involved a governmental system that does not exist in the United States, although the Democrats are working to overcome that disadvantage. However, there are other differences as well:<br />
(1) He manipulated and then dominated a nation that is smaller than Texas &#8212; one of 50 states, not all of which are happy with the imposition of tyranny from the Left or the Right.<br />
(2) Germans were deprived of personal weapons as an early order of business.<br />
(3) The National Socialists (to give them their proper name) were supported by many prominent academics, jurists, politicians, and business leaders. &#8212; Okay, they got me on this one.<br />
(4) After taking power, he was able to &#8220;legally&#8221; eradicate all other political parties, organizations, and labor unions within three months. I&#8217;m not sure that&#8217;s possible in the US.</p>
<p>There are probably more points, and the argument has been developed in many places, but the main thing is to remember that the Left learned from Hitler, and that they do not actually fear that Trump &amp; Republicans will do any of the things they propose, as Lee demonstrates in his post.</p>
<p>(1) <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/thetruesize.com/mockup.html#?borders=1~!MTY2NDcxODM.ODczNDczNw*MzIzOTQyOTI(NTY5MzEyMA~!CONTIGUOUS_US*MTAwMjQwNzU.MjUwMjM1MTc(MTc1)Mg~!IN*NTI2NDA1MQ.Nzg2MzQyMQ)MA~!CN*OTkyMTY5Nw.NzMxNDcwNQ(MjI1)MQ~!DE*ODUzMzE5Nw.MTI1MDIxNTQ" rel="nofollow ugc">https://s3.amazonaws.com/thetruesize.com/mockup.html#?borders=1~!MTY2NDcxODM.ODczNDczNw*MzIzOTQyOTI(NTY5MzEyMA~!CONTIGUOUS_US*MTAwMjQwNzU.MjUwMjM1MTc(MTc1)Mg~!IN*NTI2NDA1MQ.Nzg2MzQyMQ)MA~!CN*OTkyMTY5Nw.NzMxNDcwNQ(MjI1)MQ~!DE*ODUzMzE5Nw.MTI1MDIxNTQ</a>)Mw<br />
(2) <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2013/12/how-nazis-used-gun-control-stephen-p-halbrook/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.nationalreview.com/2013/12/how-nazis-used-gun-control-stephen-p-halbrook/</a><br />
(3) Browse the internet at your leisure.<br />
(4) <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adolf-Hitler/Dictator-1933-39" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adolf-Hitler/Dictator-1933-39</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2769078</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Oct 2024 08:03:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2769078</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I see that Lee Smith has already gone down the same path in re the TIP war game, aka &quot;the plan for the war we intend to foment.&quot;  (h/t sdferr)

https://tomklingenstein.com/is-the-left-preparing-for-war-if-trump-wins/

@ physicsguy &#062; &quot;The Lee Smith article is very good and expresses my dark thoughts that the election of Trump may just be the beginning of the most terrible time for the country since 1860.&quot;

“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

https://winstonchurchill.org/the-life-of-churchill/war-leader/1940-1942/autumn-1942-age-68/]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see that Lee Smith has already gone down the same path in re the TIP war game, aka &#8220;the plan for the war we intend to foment.&#8221;  (h/t sdferr)</p>
<p><a href="https://tomklingenstein.com/is-the-left-preparing-for-war-if-trump-wins/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://tomklingenstein.com/is-the-left-preparing-for-war-if-trump-wins/</a></p>
<p>@ physicsguy &gt; &#8220;The Lee Smith article is very good and expresses my dark thoughts that the election of Trump may just be the beginning of the most terrible time for the country since 1860.&#8221;</p>
<p>“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”</p>
<p><a href="https://winstonchurchill.org/the-life-of-churchill/war-leader/1940-1942/autumn-1942-age-68/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://winstonchurchill.org/the-life-of-churchill/war-leader/1940-1942/autumn-1942-age-68/</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2769068</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Oct 2024 05:26:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2769068</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@ David Foster &#062; &quot;this 2020 ‘war game’ by the ‘transition integrity project’ is interesting&quot;

@ F &#062; &quot;That 2020 war game is indeed interesting, albeit leaves out a couple of possible scenarios:&quot;

You can say that again. 
However, the main consideration they missed, as shown by your comment, is that, just as a map is not the terrain, a game is not the actual events.

I can&#039;t cut-and-paste from David&#039;s link, but a downloaded PDF of the document was more amenable, and, just for the fun of it, I have a fisking in process.

That could take awhile.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ David Foster &gt; &#8220;this 2020 ‘war game’ by the ‘transition integrity project’ is interesting&#8221;</p>
<p>@ F &gt; &#8220;That 2020 war game is indeed interesting, albeit leaves out a couple of possible scenarios:&#8221;</p>
<p>You can say that again.<br />
However, the main consideration they missed, as shown by your comment, is that, just as a map is not the terrain, a game is not the actual events.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t cut-and-paste from David&#8217;s link, but a downloaded PDF of the document was more amenable, and, just for the fun of it, I have a fisking in process.</p>
<p>That could take awhile.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2769062</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Oct 2024 04:01:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2769062</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;They expect Harris to lose.&lt;/i&gt;

AesopFan:

Yes. 

For some unfathomable reason they are ignoring Art Deco&#039;s certainty that this election is within the margin of error.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>They expect Harris to lose.</i></p>
<p>AesopFan:</p>
<p>Yes. </p>
<p>For some unfathomable reason they are ignoring Art Deco&#8217;s certainty that this election is within the margin of error.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2769060</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Oct 2024 03:42:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2769060</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@ Karmi - odds are good that the Democrats will claim Kamala had one of those hidden voter surges, after they decide how many ballots they need to add to her pile.

Seriously: we know of the elections where Republican voters don&#039;t answer polls, don&#039;t post signs, and don&#039;t talk about their preferences in public, where the GOP candidate wins like Reagan&#039;s first term, maybe Nixon (first and second terms different), and Trump 45.
Are there any cases of the Democrats NOT publicly revealing their preferences, having  low numbers in the pre-election polling, and then winning?

Is that what happened with Truman - behind in the polls before voting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Karmi &#8211; odds are good that the Democrats will claim Kamala had one of those hidden voter surges, after they decide how many ballots they need to add to her pile.</p>
<p>Seriously: we know of the elections where Republican voters don&#8217;t answer polls, don&#8217;t post signs, and don&#8217;t talk about their preferences in public, where the GOP candidate wins like Reagan&#8217;s first term, maybe Nixon (first and second terms different), and Trump 45.<br />
Are there any cases of the Democrats NOT publicly revealing their preferences, having  low numbers in the pre-election polling, and then winning?</p>
<p>Is that what happened with Truman &#8211; behind in the polls before voting.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Karmi		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2768898</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Karmi]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Oct 2024 12:57:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2768898</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Had said I wasn’t going to pay attention to polls and focus just on Betting Odds. Then I voted against Harris &#038; DEMs and am getting a little anxious as voting day approaches… 

&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14013063/trump-harris-early-vote-swing-states-polls.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow ugc&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;polls are missing a hidden voter surge&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;Why the race isn&#039;t as close as you think: With one week to go, analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN predicts the polls are missing a hidden voter surge – Craig Keshishian was a project director on President Reagan&#039;s polling team and later served in Reagan&#039;s Presidential Speechwriting and Research Office 

In the final week of this &#039;dead heat&#039; presidential election, I am reminded of Ronald Reagan&#039;s landslide 1980 victory.

Then as now, President Jimmy Carter was polling neck-and-neck with his Republican challenger.

A Gallup poll showed Carter up one percentage point nationally in late October. 

&lt;b&gt;Then the bottom dropped out&lt;/b&gt; of Carter&#039;s campaign - and Reagan won by nearly 10 points in the popular vote, and a staggering 489 to 49 in the Electoral College.&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Had said I wasn’t going to pay attention to polls and focus just on Betting Odds. Then I voted against Harris &amp; DEMs and am getting a little anxious as voting day approaches… </p>
<p><a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14013063/trump-harris-early-vote-swing-states-polls.html" rel="nofollow ugc"><b>polls are missing a hidden voter surge</b></a></p>
<blockquote><p>Why the race isn&#8217;t as close as you think: With one week to go, analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN predicts the polls are missing a hidden voter surge – Craig Keshishian was a project director on President Reagan&#8217;s polling team and later served in Reagan&#8217;s Presidential Speechwriting and Research Office </p>
<p>In the final week of this &#8216;dead heat&#8217; presidential election, I am reminded of Ronald Reagan&#8217;s landslide 1980 victory.</p>
<p>Then as now, President Jimmy Carter was polling neck-and-neck with his Republican challenger.</p>
<p>A Gallup poll showed Carter up one percentage point nationally in late October. </p>
<p><b>Then the bottom dropped out</b> of Carter&#8217;s campaign &#8211; and Reagan won by nearly 10 points in the popular vote, and a staggering 489 to 49 in the Electoral College.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2768876</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Oct 2024 09:25:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2768876</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@ Rufus &#062; &quot;The WaPo and L.A. Times endorsing no one is huge.&quot;

Third time is enemy action.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/28/usa-today-latest-publication-snub-kamala-harris-non-endorsement/

They expect Harris to lose.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Rufus &gt; &#8220;The WaPo and L.A. Times endorsing no one is huge.&#8221;</p>
<p>Third time is enemy action.<br />
<a href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/28/usa-today-latest-publication-snub-kamala-harris-non-endorsement/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/28/usa-today-latest-publication-snub-kamala-harris-non-endorsement/</a></p>
<p>They expect Harris to lose.</p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2768867</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Oct 2024 04:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2768867</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[well Ukraine does have the problem of an invading army and daily bombing by an adversary committed to the destruction of them as an independent nation.  That whole Special Military Operation.  

But lets not quibble about who invaded who or the glory of Russia, and the evil west.  All is well in Kursk.

And of course one must consider that Russia though ousted from Kerson still considers it Russian not Ukrainian since Russia annexed it in 2023?  Before they fled across the Denipro River, and blew up the dam, and generally rampaged and pillaged.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>well Ukraine does have the problem of an invading army and daily bombing by an adversary committed to the destruction of them as an independent nation.  That whole Special Military Operation.  </p>
<p>But lets not quibble about who invaded who or the glory of Russia, and the evil west.  All is well in Kursk.</p>
<p>And of course one must consider that Russia though ousted from Kerson still considers it Russian not Ukrainian since Russia annexed it in 2023?  Before they fled across the Denipro River, and blew up the dam, and generally rampaged and pillaged.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brian E		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2768866</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian E]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Oct 2024 04:32:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2768866</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I listened to om&#039;s link to Anders Puck Nielsen and I&#039;m frankly confused.

At around 2:30 Nielsen says:
&lt;blockquote&gt;If we take the point about territorial integrity, then I think the Ukrainian perspective is less rigid than people in the West assume. So when you hear Ukrainian officials talking about this question of getting their territory back, then increasingly they do not discuss that as a requirement for ending the fighting here and now. More and more they&#039;re saying that this is a question that can be resolved later, even many years later by future generations.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

But this is what Ukraine officials are saying from a Kyiv Post story:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Zelensky’s aide, Andriy Yermak, also signaled Ukraine’s readiness for negotiations &lt;b&gt;on the condition that Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty is respected&lt;/b&gt; in a Monday interview with Finnish media....Zelensky’s statement can be interpreted as a signal to peace talks ahead of the second peace summit, which aimed to establish conditions to end the war with international support.
However, &lt;b&gt;Kyiv’s key condition of retaining sovereignty over territories occupied by Russia&lt;/b&gt; is unlikely to be agreed upon by the Kremlin as the latter continues to make creeping gains in eastern Ukraine.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

It seems like a rather large obstacle/contradiction in positions.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40975]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I listened to om&#8217;s link to Anders Puck Nielsen and I&#8217;m frankly confused.</p>
<p>At around 2:30 Nielsen says:</p>
<blockquote><p>If we take the point about territorial integrity, then I think the Ukrainian perspective is less rigid than people in the West assume. So when you hear Ukrainian officials talking about this question of getting their territory back, then increasingly they do not discuss that as a requirement for ending the fighting here and now. More and more they&#8217;re saying that this is a question that can be resolved later, even many years later by future generations.</p></blockquote>
<p>But this is what Ukraine officials are saying from a Kyiv Post story:</p>
<blockquote><p>Zelensky’s aide, Andriy Yermak, also signaled Ukraine’s readiness for negotiations <b>on the condition that Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty is respected</b> in a Monday interview with Finnish media&#8230;.Zelensky’s statement can be interpreted as a signal to peace talks ahead of the second peace summit, which aimed to establish conditions to end the war with international support.<br />
However, <b>Kyiv’s key condition of retaining sovereignty over territories occupied by Russia</b> is unlikely to be agreed upon by the Kremlin as the latter continues to make creeping gains in eastern Ukraine.</p></blockquote>
<p>It seems like a rather large obstacle/contradiction in positions.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40975" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40975</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/28/open-thread-10-28-2024/#comment-2768856</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Oct 2024 03:15:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=137828#comment-2768856</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Since it is an Open Thread:

&lt;b&gt;Nuclear weapons and security guarantees for Ukraine - Anders Puck Nielsen&lt;/b&gt;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTiunvocl5c

&lt;blockquote&gt;



0:10 / 17:45

Nuclear weapons and security guarantees for Ukraine

Anders Puck Nielsen
  
Oct 28, 2024
It is becoming increasingly clear that the West and Ukraine disagree about the end game of the war. Western leaders do not seem to understand the importance of security guarantees if they want the war to end, and potentially it can lead to proliferation of nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian plan for victory has also been largely misunderstood.

0:00 Intro
0:42 Disagreement between Ukraine and the West
1:33 The Western perspective
2:26 Ukraine&#039;s perspective on territory
3:40 Security guarantees
5:35 Two types of deterrence
7:37 Ukraine and nuclear weapons
9:25 The plan for victory
14:41 The end game
15:45 Ukrainian agency
&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since it is an Open Thread:</p>
<p><b>Nuclear weapons and security guarantees for Ukraine &#8211; Anders Puck Nielsen</b></p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTiunvocl5c" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTiunvocl5c</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>0:10 / 17:45</p>
<p>Nuclear weapons and security guarantees for Ukraine</p>
<p>Anders Puck Nielsen</p>
<p>Oct 28, 2024<br />
It is becoming increasingly clear that the West and Ukraine disagree about the end game of the war. Western leaders do not seem to understand the importance of security guarantees if they want the war to end, and potentially it can lead to proliferation of nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian plan for victory has also been largely misunderstood.</p>
<p>0:00 Intro<br />
0:42 Disagreement between Ukraine and the West<br />
1:33 The Western perspective<br />
2:26 Ukraine&#8217;s perspective on territory<br />
3:40 Security guarantees<br />
5:35 Two types of deterrence<br />
7:37 Ukraine and nuclear weapons<br />
9:25 The plan for victory<br />
14:41 The end game<br />
15:45 Ukrainian agency
</p></blockquote>
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