Well enough that I hope Trump won’t ignore Ukraine’s sacrifices (not to mention the wealth of info & knowledge Ukraine has passed on to our Military) in this war, and give Ukraine to Russia. I voted against Democrats & Harris, and will be watching ‘n documenting Trump *VERY* closely this time around…

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27, 2024

Russia’s economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war over the long term. The Washington Post reported on October 27 that the Russian economy is “in danger of overheating,” noting that Russia’s excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries. The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages. ISW has recently reported that Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing the one-time signing bonuses for Russian contract servicemembers in order to sustain Russia’s rate of force generation (roughly 30,000 troops per month), which underscores the fact that Russia does not have an indefinite pool of manpower and must financially and socially reckon with the ever-growing costs of replenishing its frontline losses via various force-generation avenues. The Washington Post also noted that Russia’s stringent migration policies, particularly after the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, have further depleted Russia’s labor pool and amplified economic frictions. This has particularly become the case as migrant workers are increasingly identifying Russia as a hostile and unattractive place to relocate for work. ISW has reported at length on the balance that Putin is trying to strike between catering to his pro-war ultranationalist constituency, which espouses extreme anti-migrant sentiments, and his practical need to leverage migrant labor both economically and militarily.

Putin very likely assesses that calling another partial mobilization wave, or introducing general mobilization, will be too costly to his regime, and has therefore resorted to crypto-mobilization efforts that appear to be placing greater and greater strains on the Russian wartime economy. The recent appearance of North Korean troops in Russia, and their reported deployment to the combat zone in Kursk Oblast, further suggests that Putin’s entire force-generation system is very tenuous.

The paid WP article – Russian economy overheating, but still powering the war against Ukraine (I got past paywall w/ Epic browser)

Elon Musk
Jordan Peterson
Tulsi Gabbard
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Tucker Carlson

Burning down the house! Here’s a couple clips.

–“Tucker Carlson Goes Absolutely Insane at Madison Square Garden Trump Rally”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnNtrJ3n3nU

–“Elon Musk, Dark MAGA, NYC Trump Rally”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wj2KPqpfVOM

The Force is with us.

IDF ‘inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25.’

Israel Struck Air Defenses Around Critical Iranian Energy Sites

Israel’s attacks on Iran early Saturday destroyed air-defense systems set up to protect several critical oil and petrochemical refineries, as well as systems guarding a large gas field and a major port in southern Iran…
****
Israel’s destruction of the air-defense systems has raised deep alarm in Iran, the three Iranian officials said, as critical energy and economic hubs are now vulnerable to future attacks if the cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel continues.
****
“This looks like a potential preamble to a much more effective strike against Iran’s infrastructure and even nuclear sites,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director of International Crisis Group. “Iranians don’t have the capacity to replace these systems in a timely manner, which renders the country much more vulnerable in future tit for tats.”

Balls in Iran’s court … they wanna go for another tit?

It’s the largest sector, followed by Professional and Business Services- 13%; Government- 11.4%; Manufacturing- 10.3%.

I haven’t found historical data for real estate or finance– maybe you can provide a link. While Zero Hedge is contrarian (this was a reprint, not Zero Hedge) I have no reason to doubt the author.

Canadian Defence Strategy and Issues – Procurement Disasters, the Arctic & Alliances -Perun

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27wWRszlZWU

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:16 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:39 — History
00:09:02 — Strategic Position
00:11:14 — Canadian Defence Policy
00:15:32 — The Arctic Front
00:18:15 — The Canadian Military
00:22:08 — Issues And Shortfalls
00:26:10 — Ageing Inventory
00:32:33 — Curse 1: The Budget
00:36:29 — Curse 2: The Equipment Allocation
00:45:00 — Curse 3: The Actual Procurements
00:46:00 — Complexity & Delay
01:00:45 — Observations And Options
01:07:57 — Channel Update

I am all in favor of growing the economy to help get us out of our debt situation, but I suspect 3% is still a very high reach, even with better policies on regulations, innovators, capital availability, etc. Especially if 40% (or whatever) of that is the “abstract financialization” component you discussed. I have read analyses that say we can, and that we cannot, grow our way out of this debt. We are bankrupt and need to accept and undergo a suitable set of “haircuts” if we want to be moral, virtuous, and honest about the situation. Off the top of my head, I would mention Larry Kotlikoff and the Peter J. Peterson Fdn as sources on this, but there are others, perhaps better?

It is terrible than none of the Republican candidates had the courage this election cycle to address debt/deficit reduction. Reality involves restructuring the entitlements (some of us will have to give up our SS even if we did “earn” it with payroll taxes, etc.); medical costs must become more public and market driven; medical insurance needs to return to being true risk mitigation for unknown and uncertain futures rather than a pass through for normal medical expenses; DOD must get its financial accounting in order and then do more with less; many agencies must be killed; and a culture of saving and investing needs to be more widely promoted and supported. Etc.

In regards to our “information age”, we can say all stages of economic development were information ages for their time and place. From making hand axes and reed baskets, to planting seasons and making steel, to microchips, all involved the recognition, capture, and transmission of knowledge to the following generations. Perhaps for the “computerized age”, besides the hardware advances of transitors to IC’s to gigahertz transmissions, I would suggest that the softwware development of global standards for network operating systems and bar coding and Q codes have been the greatest contributors to real productivity enhancements in human activities. I welcome feedback on the alternatives you might prefer.