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	Comments on: Trump, fate, and his convention speech	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 16:03:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Hubert		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750558</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hubert]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 16:03:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750558</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[For those who are interested, more information about the Jackal&#039;s custom-made sniper rifle and the rounds it fired:

https://www.imfdb.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Jackal#Custom-Made_Sniper_Rifle

The bolt appears to be for rimfire (as opposed to centerfire) cartridges, so probably a modified .22 Winchester Magnum Rimfire (WMR). Rimfire means that the primer compound that ignites the propellant is embedded in the rim of the cartridge base, not in a separate primer seated in a pocket in the base. The .22 Hornet--another possible candidate--is a centerfire cartridge. The Hornet also has a bottleneck (tapered) cartridge case, unlike the cartridges shown in the movie.

If I recall correctly, the explosive bullets the Jackal used were drilled out with a narrow channel and filled with mercury. I don&#039;t know whether an explosive .22 WMR round would have shredded an entire watermelon, but it certainly would have blown a chunk out of it.

The movie also features lots of French military firearms from that period, if one is a fan of French military firearms. The definitive book on those is Ian McCollum&#039;s &quot;Chassepot to FAMAS&quot; (https://www.headstamppublishing.com/purchase/p/chassepot-3rd-standard?rq=chassepot).

Finally, here&#039;s a video by a guy who recreated the custom rifle using a Savage Rascal in .22 Long Rifle (.22 LR):

https://www.firearmstalk.com/threads/the-day-of-the-jackal-rifle-starring-savage-rascal.147982/]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those who are interested, more information about the Jackal&#8217;s custom-made sniper rifle and the rounds it fired:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.imfdb.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Jackal#Custom-Made_Sniper_Rifle" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.imfdb.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Jackal#Custom-Made_Sniper_Rifle</a></p>
<p>The bolt appears to be for rimfire (as opposed to centerfire) cartridges, so probably a modified .22 Winchester Magnum Rimfire (WMR). Rimfire means that the primer compound that ignites the propellant is embedded in the rim of the cartridge base, not in a separate primer seated in a pocket in the base. The .22 Hornet&#8211;another possible candidate&#8211;is a centerfire cartridge. The Hornet also has a bottleneck (tapered) cartridge case, unlike the cartridges shown in the movie.</p>
<p>If I recall correctly, the explosive bullets the Jackal used were drilled out with a narrow channel and filled with mercury. I don&#8217;t know whether an explosive .22 WMR round would have shredded an entire watermelon, but it certainly would have blown a chunk out of it.</p>
<p>The movie also features lots of French military firearms from that period, if one is a fan of French military firearms. The definitive book on those is Ian McCollum&#8217;s &#8220;Chassepot to FAMAS&#8221; (<a href="https://www.headstamppublishing.com/purchase/p/chassepot-3rd-standard?rq=chassepot" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.headstamppublishing.com/purchase/p/chassepot-3rd-standard?rq=chassepot</a>).</p>
<p>Finally, here&#8217;s a video by a guy who recreated the custom rifle using a Savage Rascal in .22 Long Rifle (.22 LR):</p>
<p><a href="https://www.firearmstalk.com/threads/the-day-of-the-jackal-rifle-starring-savage-rascal.147982/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.firearmstalk.com/threads/the-day-of-the-jackal-rifle-starring-savage-rascal.147982/</a></p>
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		By: TommyJay		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750547</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TommyJay]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 15:30:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750547</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Ah, an exploding bullet.  Hinkley used that in the Reagan assassination attempt.  I thought none of them actually exploded, but Wikipedia says that one that hit Brady did explode.  I wonder if The Day of the Jackel influenced Hinkley.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ah, an exploding bullet.  Hinkley used that in the Reagan assassination attempt.  I thought none of them actually exploded, but Wikipedia says that one that hit Brady did explode.  I wonder if The Day of the Jackel influenced Hinkley.</p>
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		<title>
		By: BrooklynBoy		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750522</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BrooklynBoy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 12:17:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750522</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[neo
The Jackal used an explosive bullet to shred the watermelon.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>neo<br />
The Jackal used an explosive bullet to shred the watermelon.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Sailorcurt		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750516</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sailorcurt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 11:19:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750516</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;It’s a custom-made weapon with specifications discussed in detail earlier in the film.&quot;

Hi Neo, Just because a fictional plot can come up with a plausible sounding explanation for some anomaly, doesn&#039;t make it any more physically possible.  Hollywood enhances things for dramatic effect.  That&#039;s what they do.

Everything TommyJay said is right, including that the size of the cartridge loaded into that rifle was not sufficient to impart the damage portrayed in the movie.

I&#039;ve been a shooter all my life.  I grew up with a rifle in my hands.  I&#039;m an NRA and 4H rifle, pistol and shotgun instructor and shot with the US Navy marksmanship team for three years.

I&#039;m not a sniper.  Nor do I have combat experience.  But I do have plenty of experience with rifles of all calibers up to and including .50 BMG.  Some of my favorite &quot;reactive&quot; targets are watermelon and cantaloupe and I&#039;ve shot probably thousands of them over my 50 years or so of shooting experience.

Yes, you can make a watermelon explode like that...but not with a cartridge that small, no matter how &quot;custom made&quot; the weapon is.  That was Hollywood special effects.

This is not to say that a head shot with a 5.56 x 45mm at 130 yards wouldn&#039;t be devastating.  It would be, but that watermelon image was a bit overboard with what would actually happen.

For comparison, the most common loading for the AR-15 (5.56 x 45mm) is a 55 grain bullet with a muzzle velocity of about 3200 feet per second resulting in a muzzle energy of 1282 pound feet.

The &quot;standard&quot; loading for the rifle used in the Kennedy Assassination (6.5 x 52mm) was a 160 grain bullet with a muzzle velocity of about 2400 feet per second resulting in a muzzle energy of 2046 pound feet.

The damage done to Kennedy was pretty dramatic, but it didn&#039;t compare to the watermelon in that video just blowing apart...and that was done with a significantly more powerful cartridge than depicted in that movie or the shooter on Saturday used.

BTW, the 6.5 Carcano (Kennedy assassination rifle) is not a particularly powerful rifle.  It would be adequate for deer sized game.  The 5.56 (Trump attempt rifle) is not powerful enough for that.  Not to say you couldn&#039;t kill a deer with a 5.56 - you could, but it&#039;s not powerful enough to be reasonably sure of a quick, humane kill.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;It’s a custom-made weapon with specifications discussed in detail earlier in the film.&#8221;</p>
<p>Hi Neo, Just because a fictional plot can come up with a plausible sounding explanation for some anomaly, doesn&#8217;t make it any more physically possible.  Hollywood enhances things for dramatic effect.  That&#8217;s what they do.</p>
<p>Everything TommyJay said is right, including that the size of the cartridge loaded into that rifle was not sufficient to impart the damage portrayed in the movie.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been a shooter all my life.  I grew up with a rifle in my hands.  I&#8217;m an NRA and 4H rifle, pistol and shotgun instructor and shot with the US Navy marksmanship team for three years.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not a sniper.  Nor do I have combat experience.  But I do have plenty of experience with rifles of all calibers up to and including .50 BMG.  Some of my favorite &#8220;reactive&#8221; targets are watermelon and cantaloupe and I&#8217;ve shot probably thousands of them over my 50 years or so of shooting experience.</p>
<p>Yes, you can make a watermelon explode like that&#8230;but not with a cartridge that small, no matter how &#8220;custom made&#8221; the weapon is.  That was Hollywood special effects.</p>
<p>This is not to say that a head shot with a 5.56 x 45mm at 130 yards wouldn&#8217;t be devastating.  It would be, but that watermelon image was a bit overboard with what would actually happen.</p>
<p>For comparison, the most common loading for the AR-15 (5.56 x 45mm) is a 55 grain bullet with a muzzle velocity of about 3200 feet per second resulting in a muzzle energy of 1282 pound feet.</p>
<p>The &#8220;standard&#8221; loading for the rifle used in the Kennedy Assassination (6.5 x 52mm) was a 160 grain bullet with a muzzle velocity of about 2400 feet per second resulting in a muzzle energy of 2046 pound feet.</p>
<p>The damage done to Kennedy was pretty dramatic, but it didn&#8217;t compare to the watermelon in that video just blowing apart&#8230;and that was done with a significantly more powerful cartridge than depicted in that movie or the shooter on Saturday used.</p>
<p>BTW, the 6.5 Carcano (Kennedy assassination rifle) is not a particularly powerful rifle.  It would be adequate for deer sized game.  The 5.56 (Trump attempt rifle) is not powerful enough for that.  Not to say you couldn&#8217;t kill a deer with a 5.56 &#8211; you could, but it&#8217;s not powerful enough to be reasonably sure of a quick, humane kill.</p>
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		<title>
		By: rah		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750513</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[rah]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 10:28:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750513</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Trump&#039;s instinctive reaction is correct. Sheer rage at some one trying to kill him. A refusal to to let him win. A sure knowledge he has to let his supporters know he is OK. All this is unthinking, just his reaction. Trump is a fighter , I expected no less.
 Trump also  has  a basic understanding of showmanship. Honed by years of experience.
 Trump has courage, but I expected that. I noticed in 2016 that in one rally at a hanger , that Trump spun at a bad guy getting up on his platform. Faster than USSS agents  response. He is very aware of what goes on around him and will attack at threats.

 He showed that same speed and awareness one he felt that bullet passing by his ear. He got down before USSS reacted.

My thoughts based on the fumbling response of his protective detail is that Trump&#039;s main protection is his supporters. His supporters spotted the threat . They notified police. If his supporter were armed ,  they probably would have acted. Of course I understand allowing armed attendees is asking for trouble.

 As to Stephanie&#039;s emotional reaction that is also instinctive. Men are protectors.  Women want that.  Many women have had to assume that role themselves for lack of a male protector or to save themselves and their children. Women can be very fierce protectors. 

The obvious issue of the short woman trying to interpose her body to protect Trump was laudable ,but comical. I expect she was the temporary USSS agent assigned and what a bad day for her. The other women fumbling to holster the weapon is a lack of muscle memory. They need training. At least they tried. However the problem of Trump&#039;s size is on that has to be acknowledged and accounted for in his detail.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trump&#8217;s instinctive reaction is correct. Sheer rage at some one trying to kill him. A refusal to to let him win. A sure knowledge he has to let his supporters know he is OK. All this is unthinking, just his reaction. Trump is a fighter , I expected no less.<br />
 Trump also  has  a basic understanding of showmanship. Honed by years of experience.<br />
 Trump has courage, but I expected that. I noticed in 2016 that in one rally at a hanger , that Trump spun at a bad guy getting up on his platform. Faster than USSS agents  response. He is very aware of what goes on around him and will attack at threats.</p>
<p> He showed that same speed and awareness one he felt that bullet passing by his ear. He got down before USSS reacted.</p>
<p>My thoughts based on the fumbling response of his protective detail is that Trump&#8217;s main protection is his supporters. His supporters spotted the threat . They notified police. If his supporter were armed ,  they probably would have acted. Of course I understand allowing armed attendees is asking for trouble.</p>
<p> As to Stephanie&#8217;s emotional reaction that is also instinctive. Men are protectors.  Women want that.  Many women have had to assume that role themselves for lack of a male protector or to save themselves and their children. Women can be very fierce protectors. </p>
<p>The obvious issue of the short woman trying to interpose her body to protect Trump was laudable ,but comical. I expect she was the temporary USSS agent assigned and what a bad day for her. The other women fumbling to holster the weapon is a lack of muscle memory. They need training. At least they tried. However the problem of Trump&#8217;s size is on that has to be acknowledged and accounted for in his detail.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Banned Lizard		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750494</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Banned Lizard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 06:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750494</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I just noted 7/15/24 on my calendar: &quot;RFK Jr Secret Service assigned&quot;
&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/15/joe-biden-orders-secret-service-protection-for-rfk-jr-hours-after-donald-trump-demanded-it/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow ugc&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Joe Biden Orders Secret Service Protection for RFK Jr. Hours After Donald Trump Demanded It&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
It&#039;s astonishing that it took this long.

See also VDH:
&lt;a href=&quot;https://x.com/VDHanson/status/1812434677312983429&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow ugc&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Assassination Porn and the Sickness on the Left&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just noted 7/15/24 on my calendar: &#8220;RFK Jr Secret Service assigned&#8221;<br />
<a href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/15/joe-biden-orders-secret-service-protection-for-rfk-jr-hours-after-donald-trump-demanded-it/" rel="nofollow ugc"><b>Joe Biden Orders Secret Service Protection for RFK Jr. Hours After Donald Trump Demanded It</b></a><br />
It&#8217;s astonishing that it took this long.</p>
<p>See also VDH:<br />
<a href="https://x.com/VDHanson/status/1812434677312983429" rel="nofollow ugc"><b>Assassination Porn and the Sickness on the Left</b></a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Chases Eagles		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750486</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chases Eagles]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 05:37:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750486</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Questions.
Father’s AR, what was it zeroed at? Was it zeroed at all? What optic? It could be the ear shot was pure luck and the shooter had no idea where the rounds were impacting. I wouldn’t be surprised if half the ARs in civil hands have never been sighted in.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Questions.<br />
Father’s AR, what was it zeroed at? Was it zeroed at all? What optic? It could be the ear shot was pure luck and the shooter had no idea where the rounds were impacting. I wouldn’t be surprised if half the ARs in civil hands have never been sighted in.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750485</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 04:54:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750485</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[And thus we come to this:
physicsguy on July 15, 2024 at 4:55 pm said:
Not that it’s comforting, but I hope it’s total incompetence. If it’s the alternative we are royally screwed.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And thus we come to this:<br />
physicsguy on July 15, 2024 at 4:55 pm said:<br />
Not that it’s comforting, but I hope it’s total incompetence. If it’s the alternative we are royally screwed.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750484</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 04:53:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750484</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@ David Foster &#062; &quot;Seem like there are some important socio-psychological, political-psychological, and sexual-psychological issues here, which I linked for discussion:&quot;

Thanks for linking your post. The discussions there are always interesting, and mirror somewhat the conversations here (I wonder why that could be??)

In particular, this theory is gaining credence in both places; see Neo&#039;s post on Why was Trump still on the stage?

&lt;blockquote&gt;Xennady
July 15, 2024 at 9:10 pm
This was an op.

The most charitable interpretation is that the Deep State arranged for incompetent security with a fond hope that some nutter would show up and solve their Trump problem for them. In that case I’d bet that security for many other Trump events was equally as bad, only no shooter bothered to turn up. Worse, perhaps this particular shooter was groomed by the Deep State with deliberate intent, only missing due to bad luck or the wind.

I sense a pattern. “Lone gunman” kills inconvenient political figure or commits a massacre, thus giving the Deep State a more pliable politician an office they might not have achieved on the own or an excuse to implement a policy that otherwise would not have been politically viable.

How many times does this have to happen before people stop accepting the oopsie theory of assassinations?

Let me recap. We had the murder of John F. Kennedy, which led to decades of questions about what actually happened. We had the killing of his brother, the killing of Martin Luther King, a near miss with Ronald Reagan, and every “five eyes” country had mass murders which led to gun-bans everywhere except the United States.

Something is quite fishy, in my view.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Although your following comment was not directed specifically at Xennady, this did have some relevance, IMO:
&lt;blockquote&gt;David Foster
July 15, 2024 at 10:26 pm
Someone at Instapundit, where this post was just linked, remembered something Charles Schumer said: “You take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you, so even for a practical, supposedly hard-nosed businessman [like Trump], he’s being really dumb to do this.”
&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ David Foster &gt; &#8220;Seem like there are some important socio-psychological, political-psychological, and sexual-psychological issues here, which I linked for discussion:&#8221;</p>
<p>Thanks for linking your post. The discussions there are always interesting, and mirror somewhat the conversations here (I wonder why that could be??)</p>
<p>In particular, this theory is gaining credence in both places; see Neo&#8217;s post on Why was Trump still on the stage?</p>
<blockquote><p>Xennady<br />
July 15, 2024 at 9:10 pm<br />
This was an op.</p>
<p>The most charitable interpretation is that the Deep State arranged for incompetent security with a fond hope that some nutter would show up and solve their Trump problem for them. In that case I’d bet that security for many other Trump events was equally as bad, only no shooter bothered to turn up. Worse, perhaps this particular shooter was groomed by the Deep State with deliberate intent, only missing due to bad luck or the wind.</p>
<p>I sense a pattern. “Lone gunman” kills inconvenient political figure or commits a massacre, thus giving the Deep State a more pliable politician an office they might not have achieved on the own or an excuse to implement a policy that otherwise would not have been politically viable.</p>
<p>How many times does this have to happen before people stop accepting the oopsie theory of assassinations?</p>
<p>Let me recap. We had the murder of John F. Kennedy, which led to decades of questions about what actually happened. We had the killing of his brother, the killing of Martin Luther King, a near miss with Ronald Reagan, and every “five eyes” country had mass murders which led to gun-bans everywhere except the United States.</p>
<p>Something is quite fishy, in my view.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Although your following comment was not directed specifically at Xennady, this did have some relevance, IMO:</p>
<blockquote><p>David Foster<br />
July 15, 2024 at 10:26 pm<br />
Someone at Instapundit, where this post was just linked, remembered something Charles Schumer said: “You take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you, so even for a practical, supposedly hard-nosed businessman [like Trump], he’s being really dumb to do this.”
</p></blockquote>
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		<title>
		By: Christopher+B		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2024/07/15/trump-fate-and-his-convention-speech/#comment-2750473</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christopher+B]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jul 2024 03:14:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=135644#comment-2750473</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[If I recall correctly, the Jackal misses the shot because he didn&#039;t account for De Gaulle bending to air-kiss the cheeks of the man receiving the medal per ceremony.  In that way the scene isn&#039;t really an analogy to Trump since Trump&#039;s movement was largely unplanned.  That detail always bugged me about the story since the Jackal is presented as the consummate professional planner (there are a few other gratoutus detours as well, like the assignation with the aristocratic French lady but they&#039;re pretty well worked into the plot).  I suppose it could be excused because he&#039;s obviously not French and so would not have a reason to be familiar with the medal ceremony but you&#039;d think in order to figure out his position and angles he&#039;d have to review documentation and photographs, and it didn&#039;t cross his mind to find some way to review film of the action from previous years so he&#039;d know how De Gaulle would be moving?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If I recall correctly, the Jackal misses the shot because he didn&#8217;t account for De Gaulle bending to air-kiss the cheeks of the man receiving the medal per ceremony.  In that way the scene isn&#8217;t really an analogy to Trump since Trump&#8217;s movement was largely unplanned.  That detail always bugged me about the story since the Jackal is presented as the consummate professional planner (there are a few other gratoutus detours as well, like the assignation with the aristocratic French lady but they&#8217;re pretty well worked into the plot).  I suppose it could be excused because he&#8217;s obviously not French and so would not have a reason to be familiar with the medal ceremony but you&#8217;d think in order to figure out his position and angles he&#8217;d have to review documentation and photographs, and it didn&#8217;t cross his mind to find some way to review film of the action from previous years so he&#8217;d know how De Gaulle would be moving?</p>
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