“I sense a second War Between the States a-coming.” Cicero

Not quite. If Trump is prevented from winning, it will be rural vs urban. As evidence, I offer this county map of the 2016 New York State electoral results.
https://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/local/new-york/2016/11/11/nys-election-map-becomes-familiar/93664010/
The rural side has the guns, the means to self-defense. The urban side is more populous but has to import every single necessity of life. Water, food, energy & medicine. Supplies that can be easily disrupted. IF the radical left forces war upon us, it will not end well… for them.
“Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.” General Omar Bradley

Germany has state elections in Thüringen and Saxony coming up on September 1, then in Brandenburg three weeks after that. In considering the possible consequences of those elections on the composition of those states’ representation by party in the federal council (the other house of the parliament), I suppose it’s possible that the AfD, for example, could have some representation in the Bundesrat before the end of the year (am not sure exactly when, but let’s just suppose).

Thüringen, for example, has right now a minority government as far as the state legislature is concerned, consisting of The Left, Social Dems and Greens. Thüringen’s federal council representation (4 seats out of 69) roughly reflects that arrangement. Now, suppose CDU and AfD combined get enough votes on Sept. 1 to get a governing coalition together in the Thuringian state house. In theory, Thüringen’s Bundesrat contingent could completely flip to be 2 CDU + 2 AfD instead of 2 Left + 1 Social Dem + 1 Green as currently. However, I would have a suspicion that the CDU in Thüringen could give the AfD the back of its hand (again) and go for some kind of grand-coalition arrangement in the state house instead, in which case the alterations in Thüringen’s federal council delegation would be relatively minor and the AfD would still be frozen out.

In Saxony, the situation is similar, I believe: the AfD was shut out by the CDU and everybody else when it came time for state parliament coalition talks after the previous election there, so it could conceivably be similar this time around, even if AfD should get 40% or something in September. Now it’s true that if the CDU were to continue to freeze out the AfD even then, they might have to go for a minority government since CDU also had an exclusionary attitude toward the Left party in Saxony before.

Brandenburg looks also similar to me at the moment, at least to a first approximation.

Long story short, I’ve just spent the last two hours or so investigating some basic ideas about prospects of these three state elections providing an opening for the AfD to get one or more butts in seats in the German federal council. I come away from the exercise skeptical that this will happen this year.

Connecting back to Neo’s idea above about the rift between the old and new right factions in European politics, I suppose this analysis substantiates that, in that the CDU’s continued refusal to date to entertain the thought of coalition-building with the AfD at the state level, even in those German states in which the AfD is strongest and sometimes even outpolls the CDU, is still a feature of German federal politics. Granted that the state elections in question happened several years ago and the CDU’s stance may possibly have softened somewhat, maybe there will be a real change this time. But it really hinges, to me, on the CDU’s acceptance of the need for an attitude adjustment.

As to the Tories, they have dug their own grave with economic idiocy. Farage says he will welcome those who are actually conservative into Reform.

The situation in Britain is different from how things are in France and Germany. It looks like the Gaullist French old right is making common cause with Marine Le Pen’s party. This is radically different from the elections 20 years ago when Chirac joined with all the other parties to defeat Le Pen’s father.

Germany won’t be having elections this year, so there’s time for the CDU/CSU to build up their strength. If they do go into coalition with AfD (and they may not have to), they will be the dominant partner.

In Britain, though, the Tories and Reform are going head to head, and the Tories are about as popular as George W. Bush was at the end of his term. That could mean a major sweep by Labour. I suppose, in the way the parties of the left have been lately, Starmer will disappoint the Labour’s old left, but do all he can to please the woke crowd.

The Republican House speaker replacement antics were a farce. You could be critical of McCarthy and Johnson and the other contenders, but still not have any love for Matt Gaetz or MTG.

It would be extremely odd if casual bricklayers and construction workers in England didn’t live in what they call council flats. Most likely, in every country, working people have a lot in common with welfare people, because unless you have a specialty, you’ll be poor, no matter how many hours you work.

Back in the day, Scandinavian style light socialism worked, because it was for locals. As soon as they opened everything to migrants, the whole society got wrecked. In my opinion, people who are completely against benefits don’t realize how good it can be to lift your own people up. Aren’t we glad to have universal literacy, clean streets and low infant mortality? It comes from the governnment. The challenge is to keep it on track, and not hand it out to enemies and grifters.