Politics is about appearances. Leaders get elected because they appear to be fresh and new and dynamic. A few years down the road they look stale and sclerotic. It almost doesn’t matter if they actually achieve anything. Eventually the magic wears off and the public is tired of them.

Traditionally, Europeans use the EU elections to vent their grievances because the EU Parliament doesn’t matter as much as their national legislature. Britain’s Brexit Party, for example, was able to get more than a few seats in Britain’s last Europarliament election, but I don’t believe they won any seats in the national elections.

As for French regional elections, it looks like the western areas that favored Macron in the national elections were contented with their Socialist regional officials. They wanted the public services, but didn’t want the taxes and regulations that went with them. The eastern areas that supported LePen in the national elections were happy with their conservative (Les Républicains) councillors. Those voters sought change at the national level, but wanted steadier, more experienced leadership at the local level. They could count on the local officials to do their bidding in the provinces, but couldn’t trust the party higher-ups to support them on immigration. Voters like to send messages in national (and international elections). Closer to home they are more swayed by other factors, like competence and familiarity.
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Trump did sufficiently address immigration. He didn’t finish the wall, but nobody (except maybe Ann Coulter) voted against him because of that. Instead America voted for somebody who wanted to “surge to the border” all those “seeking asylum.” If Biden gets voted out, that would indicate that immigration is indeed the main issue.
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The Tories are tired. They’ve been in power too long. As with human beings, parties carry all kinds of viruses and diseases inside that accumulate and grow and eventually take over with the aging process. Since the Sixties, British governments that have been in power too long sink into sleaze and incompetence. Even if the scandals are minor, the bored press makes them major.

Sunak didn’t become prime minister by leading his party to victory in national elections. He’s never had to appeal to a nationwide electorate. He has all the faults and cluelessness of an insider politician, somebody who knows a lot about life at the top and little about life and perceptions down below, sort of a Hindu Mitt Romney.

One of Sunak’s most recent errors was bailing on the D-Day Commemoration by leaving early for a political event back home. This did not play well, for obvious reasons. It seems like something is wrong with his political instincts.

Maybe Sunak’s errors aren’t really errors, and maybe they’re not “unforced.”