Turnout tells you that. In 2020 supposedly 66.6% of voters cast ballots. That’s at minimum, 33.3% who “did not vote their own ballot”. We’re to believe that no ballot was voted on their behalf, but of course there is no way to prove it. Some of those probably voted and it wasn’t counted. Of the 66.6% who did supposedly vote, some of them did not vote their own ballot, but I don’t know what the percentage is, for the reasons we all know…

A more typical figure is 2018, where 49% of eligible voters supposedly voted. That 51% did not “vote their own ballot”. Had their votes been needed, that could easily have happened if the structure in place today had been in place then.

It’s that huge reserve of people who don’t normally vote their own ballot that will provide the margin the Dems need in this election and all future ones. You just have to, by or hook or by crook, get a ballot with the result you want from someone who doesn’t normally vote their own ballot.

And that’s how you get from 49% turnout to 67% turnout. That huge 50% that normally would not vote a ballot at all, you can go out and get ballots from them selectively, if you have the operation in place to do so.

In the absence of any explanation from you, I’m going to assume that you are assuming that no mail-in ballots come from the actual voters, but are voted by someone else.

I have no such assumption, and kindly don’t attribute such an extreme one to me; as I’ve explicitly rejected it, it would be straw-manning… I live in a state where every election is by mail and has been for about 15 years. You bet it’s a one-party state, but it was before the all mail elections–and it will ever stay that way.

If people, in any blue state, have to make fake ballots, they can, but really all they have to do is selectively harvest ballots from the population that normally does not cast their own ballot. The Dems have a huge and well-organized operation for this, because they have a serious party that wants a governing majority.

It’s not only about people filling in ballots so much as what happens to those ballots during the count. Some get excluded that shouldn’t be. Some get included that shouldn’t be. And there always comes a step where the chain of custody that links a voter to the ballot they supposedly voted is broken, and once that happens anything included that shouldn’t have been cannot be brought back out.

The wishes of the voter who may or may not have filled out the ballot are far less relevant to the outcome of the election than the wishes of the Dem party operatives who are in charge of counting and reporting those ballots. They have many opportunities to put their thumbs on the scale and what they do cannot be challenged, and frequently can’t even be exposed.

Glad to see we’re on the same page on the predictive value of polls. Right now a poll has the same evidentiary value as the queen of hearts in three-card monte: they only show it to you now to cheat you later.

You write: “Roughly half the electorate does not vote their own ballot.” But you neither explain why you say that nor do you provide a link. In the absence of any explanation from you, I’m going to assume that you are assuming that no mail-in ballots come from the actual voters, but are voted by someone else. That would be an unsupported assumption, to say the least.

Also, in 2020, the figure for mail-in voting was 43%. Certainly less than half.

As for which swing states have tightened their methods, why wouldn’t you do your own research on that? It’s not hard to find information such as this and this (those took about 10 seconds to find, and there are other articles as well).

If you’re referring to the poll that said 1 in 5 Americans say they committed election fraud in 2020 (which of course is not half, but is still a high figure), read the details:

Twenty-one percent of likely voters who voted by absentee or mail-in ballot in the 2020 election say they filled out a ballot, in part or in full, on behalf of a friend or family member, such as a spouse or child, while 78% say they didn’t.
Thirty percent voted by absentee or mail-in ballot in the 2020 election.
Nineteen percent of those who cast mail-in votes say a friend or family member filled out their ballot, in part or in full.
Seventeen percent of mail-in voters said they cast a ballot in a state where they were no longer permanent residents.
Among all voters, mail and in-person, 11% said a friend, family member, co-worker, or other acquaintance has admitted to them they filled out a ballot on behalf of another person in 2020.

Unfortunately, the poll doesn’t go into what that actually represents – at least, I haven’t seen that explained. The important question is whether these ballots represent the stated wishes of the voter, and are just being filled out by the relative or friend because of some physical problem on the part of the voter or because of convenience, and done with full cooperation of the voter. Also, we don’t know whether what the other person filled out was something minor like an address, or whether it was major. It is against the law to do this and is therefore fraudulent, but it may not be fraudulent in terms of who the voter wished to vote for.

That said, I don’t rely on polls much if at all these days. I think the Democrats are bound and determined to win and wouldn’t hesitate to commit fraud to do it, if they can manage to commit enough fraud to overcome whatever deficit may exist.

However, again, my Too Big To Rig qualification.

Roughly half the electorate does not vote their own ballot. “Too big to rig” is something like 90% of the people who DO vote their own ballot. Trump having 60% of people voting their own ballots is not enough. The polls don’t tell you a goddamned thing about whose ballots will be allowed to count, or whose ballots will be filled in and collected for them. You think all those Dem operatives in NGOs harvesting ballots are bringing in any from anyone who might vote Republican?

Are you arguing that Trump can’t possibly turn around 130,000 votes in the 2020 swing states?

They will not allow that margin of pro-Trump ballots to be counted. You tell me which of those swing states cleaned up its elections? None. They will change whatever rule they need to, break any process they need to. They will get away with it because they control the counting in the precincts that swing the swing states’ votes.

Are you arguing that the media has not lost credibility since 2020?

Ridiculous. The media is not credible. That doesn’t change how ballots will be counted. That doesn’t change that the Blue precincts will count or not count whatever ballots they wish and the Blue judges won’t allow anyone to have standing to challenge the results.

The media will see to it that nothing of substance is reported on, and will help see to it that anyone questioning the election results is canceled. None of that requires them to be “credible”.

You’re living in a banana republic and voting harder for that “Red wave” is just going to leave you crying in your beer like last time.

It doesn’t matter how popular or not the candidates are. Democratic party operatives are firmly in charge of the elections now, and are blatantly rigging the rules to get the desired outcome. If that’s not enough they’ll break the rules they’ve made up, and the courts will stay “no standing”, “unripe”, “laches”, “moot”.

Jimmy:

However, again, my Too Big To Rig qualification.

I’m not saying a Trump landslide will register as a Trump landslide, but that it will be sufficient to win.

Niketas Choniates:

You missed the “too big to rig” qualification. Unless your claim is that Dems control the polls as well as Stalin did.

Polls don’t account for the Electoral College.

POTUS isn’t elected by popular vote. Not yet. However, if one does the math by how many votes in swing states won the EC votes in 2016, then one sees that in both cases a very small number of votes swung both elections.

2016 Trump:

Michigan: Trump won by 10,704 votes, a margin of 0.3%.
Wisconsin: Trump won by 22,748 votes, a margin of 0.7%.
Pennsylvania: Trump won by 44,292 votes, a margin of 0.7%.

2020 Biden:

Georgia: Biden won by 11,779 votes, a margin of 0.2%.
Arizona: Biden won by 10,457 votes, a margin of 0.3%.
Wisconsin: Biden won by 20,682 votes, a margin of 0.6%.
Pennsylvania: Biden won by 80,555 votes, a margin of 1.2%.

2020 was Biden with all his advantages in place. Challenging a damaged incumbent. COVID cover for changing voting rules and allowing Biden’s basement campaign. Not having to defend Biden’s subsequent disasters as President and his obvious further mental decline. Not having to deal with more electoral scrutiny from Republicans that we shall have in 2024.

Are you arguing that Trump can’t possibly turn around 130,000 votes in the 2020 swing states? Are you arguing that the media has not lost credibility since 2020?

Ridiculous.

Ridiculous. Polls don’t let Dems harvest ballots, put them in charge of counting them and the rules for counting them, and in charge of refusing challenges to the counts. Polls don’t account for the Electoral College.

The media selectively reports on them anyway. There is some audience that they are trying to nudge into some action. Probably party and election officials, making sure they know by how much they need to fortify and where.

Gell-Mann amnesia for the win: we know the media misleads at every chance they get, and then we forget that when we see polls we think are good news.

As i recall marchan was party to another fleecing a decade ago re trumps real estate seminar

Of course the clintons can ravish too countries at a time like nigeria and haiti and thats all fine

Judge chutkin will protect their dark deeds