The Dems are the overwhelming majority in the precincts that matter for the Electoral College. Their party’s operatives harvest the ballots, count the ballots, report out the results, decide who has standing to challenge the results, decides what information about the results or the process gets publicized, and who gets charged with trying to interfere with or overturn an election.

It does not matter if every single black voter decides in November 2024 that they like Trump better. Their ballots will be marked D, or they won’t be counted, and if that means there somehow needs to be 150% of registered voters having voted ballots in some precincts, well you don’t have standing to challenge the result.” — Niketas Choniates

The Democrats are human. They do _not_ have limitless personnel, limitless resources, or limitless cleverness. Yeah, there’s plenty of electoral shenanigans going on, both legal and illegal, and most of it favors the Dems.

But they have practical limits just like everyone else. Note that in 2020, when Biden either won or was cheated into place (nobody will ever know for sure now), a bunch of seats in normally Dem districts unexpectedly flipped GOP. That suggests to me that they were diverting resources to try to help out Biden and those efforts were not available for the others.

Also, some GOP organizations are finally starting to play the game too.

The Dems are the overwhelming majority in the precincts that matter for the Electoral College. Their party’s operatives harvest the ballots, count the ballots, report out the results, decide who has standing to challenge the results, decides what information about the results or the process gets publicized, and who gets charged with trying to interfere with or overturn an election.

It does not matter if every single black voter decides in November 2024 that they like Trump better. Their ballots will be marked D, or they won’t be counted, and if that means there somehow needs to be 150% of registered voters having voted ballots in some precincts, well you don’t have standing to challenge the result.

the Up to ten prosecutors! in this sham tribunal, seem to be a legacy of Wolfe’s first novel Bonfire, the need for a great white defendant, except in this case there is no crime except the prosecution itself,

as I recall the portrait Wolfe painted of Sherman Mccoy, which Tom Hanks did not do any favors of, he was second generation wealth, his father had been a successful Southern atty

And before Trump ran for office, he was very much admired in a number of rap songs.

It’s true that recent immigrant blacks are not always part of the ‘black culture’ that was in fact established and maintained by lefty media and ‘civil rights’ institutions. it’s also true that there has been some drift by blacks (and Hispanics more so) toward the GOP of late. Trump, esp. produced this effect.

It seems to be a real thing, at least among young black males.

As far as immigrant blacks, the recent illegals from Haiti are not likely voting for Trump. Legal immigrants might be different.

I’d love to believe that, and I _hope_ it’s true. If it turns out to be true I’ll celebrate, but I don’t believe it’ll work out that way, at least not in 2024.

It’s true that recent immigrant blacks are not always part of the ‘black culture’ that was in fact established and maintained by lefty media and ‘civil rights’ institutions. it’s also true that there has been some drift by blacks (and Hispanics more so) toward the GOP of late. Trump, esp. produced this effect.

But just as with Jews, the instinctive tribal impulse makes it very hard for black voters raised and steeped in ‘the GOP hates us’ and ‘the Democrats are our protectors’ to cross over. That’s part of the problem.

This is reinforced by the fact that just as with the white working class, the black working class detests the Republican pro-corporate economic policies for purely rational self-interested reasons. Neither black nor white working class people are interested in privatizing Medicare (a big priority for Paul Ryan) or cutting Social Security. ‘Free trade’ hurts black working class people even more than it does white, and so does open-borders immigration. But the GOP’s corporate donors love both and fight constantly to maintain and extend them.

This is what happen to the supposed ‘Red Wave’ in 2022. It wasn’t abortion (at least not in the simplistic sense the press spun it) or LGBT or anything like that, it was straight up reluctance to vote GOP because of their economic policies.

Trump does upset that apple cart to some extent. He’s on record opposing cuts or privatization of Medicare/SoSec. He’s the closed borders candidate, esp. compared to Biden, and he has a track record of actually following through or trying to, where other Republicans preferred to talk national and govern international.

(One of the reasons the Tory party in the UK is on the ropes is that it was more or less admitted that they never had any intention of keeping their immigration promises, and that’s killing them.)

All that said, I don’t expect a mass crossover of black vote to Trump in 2024. It _could_ happen. Before FDR, the black vote was a solid GOP support block. But just as with the white working class, they have zero interest in Ayn Rand or ’19th century classical liberalism’.

That said again…they don’t have to cross over. If a significant fall in black turnout happens, if some of them _just stay home_, the result could be catastrophic for the Dems, even without them voting for Trump. I consider a ‘stay home vote’ among black voters more probable than ‘mass crossover’.

That too has happened to both parties in the past. For years, the GOP elites assumed that they didn’t have to do anything for their SoCon and nationalist supporters, because “What they gonna do? Vote Dem?”

No, crossing over made no sense, but they could and did stay home in numbers in 2006, 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2022. That’s why the ‘Red Wave’ fizzled, and conversely, an unexpected high turnout of SoCons saved Dubya in 2004.

There are at least 3 dimensions to this.

1. I think they initially wanted to use prosecution and conviction to discourage Trump supporters from supporting him: ‘See, he’s just a crook!’ Of course that backfired bigly, the prosecutions have supercharged his support. What they failed to understand was that even before the charges were filed, the law enforcement institutions had lost all credibility with much of the public, so the expected political damage didn’t happen.

Establishment: “He’s been indicted!”
GOP voters: “And this is relevant how?”

(The GOP subestablishment experienced the same effect in 2016. I can still remember shaking my head in disbelief after the Islamist terror attacks in Paris in November 2015, when I heard GOP pundits and officials saying that this would wipe out Trump’s support, because it would remind GOP voters of how dangerous the world was and why they needed safe trustworthy experienced hands to cope with it. Yes, I actually heard that said, in _2015_. Which shows that the people saying it had _no idea_ how thoroughly their ‘trustworthy experienced hands’ had discredited themselves. Of course a week after the attacks Trump’s numbers had risen.)

2. As Steve+Walsh says, it’s meant to tie Trump up and force him not to compaign and to spend money defending himself. Tactical lawfare. It’s been partially successful, but Trump has been twisting it to his advantage, too.

3. This is one that is often overlooked but which is, IMHO, very important: It’s meant to send a message to other potential ‘outsider’ candidates, whether of the right or left or anything else. When Trump became President, a lot of other wealthy people were intrigued. These prosecutions are partly the Establishment’s way of saying: “Don’t even think about it, we’ll DESTROY you if you do. Just donate and keep quiet.”

The aristocrats are trying to put down a rebellion, metaphorically speaking.

There is a young black female (and attractive) who has a youtube channel and spends a lot of time going after Fani, who she calls “fanipack”. I don’t know too much about here political views except she doesn’t like Fani and she seems to like Trump.

Kate on May 5, 2024 at 12:15 pm said:
No, Cicero, there are increasing numbers of African-Americans moving towards voting for Trump, a significant number of prominent African-American conservatives, and many black immigrants from Africa and the Caribbean are conservatives.

Both can be true. There’s a reason so many of Trump’s prosecutors are black. Jack is the exception, but he was from the corrupt International Criminal Court.

Blacks increasingly like Trump, but the blacks in the halls of power tend to be very corrupt Democrat partisans.

That’s exactly what’s happening.