Comments on: Haley in New Hamphire – plus Sununu

By: neo

neo — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 23:36:29 +0000

physicsguy:

I don’t remember when the article was written, but it was well before 2010. Pretty much the whole state has turned much more to the left since then. And the southern parts have grown in part because of foreign immigrants. Anyway, this article – which I’ve tried to find again but never have – said the Massachusetts arrivals to those southern parts actually trended fairly conservative and was not the reason for the turning in NH as a whole or even in the southern parts.

By: physicsguy

physicsguy — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 22:46:49 +0000

Neo, I would dispute that claim by just looking at the voting maps for NH going back at least to 2010. They show the southern counties blue. Dartmouth, UNH, and Keene St do not make up enough population to explain the shift, especially for the areas adjacent to Mass.

By: FOAF

FOAF — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 21:19:26 +0000

Before Iowa, NH was always the first primary and was always considered a key bellwether. At one point it was true that no President had been elected without winning the NH primary (note this does not mean no one was nominated who hadn’t won).

However it has not held up in recent years. In 2020 Biden got 8% of the vote and finished fifth – behind Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren!

By: neo

neo — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 19:24:41 +0000

Mike K; physicsguy:

According to some study or other I read, NH is not the classic case that you described. The people who came from places like Massachusetts, at least according to this study, were not the cause of the purpling or blueing of the state of NH. It was allowing students to vote. NH is so small that that really really mattered.

By: Mike K

Mike K — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 17:05:46 +0000

The Democrats tried a similar strategy in Iowa. It didn’t work.

New Hampshire is the classic case of blue moving to escape taxes/incompetent government but bringing their politics with them. Something similar has happened to AZ, especially Phoenix.

By: Art Deco

Art Deco — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 13:36:04 +0000

Does he really think the NH primary is irrelevant?
==
It’s a reasonable wager that he things the marginal utility of his expenditures is higher elsewhere. Note that John Kasich skipped the Iowa caucuses in 2016 but managed to be more competitive than any candidate other than Trump and Cruz.

By: physicsguy

physicsguy — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 13:30:03 +0000

“Once NH goes the way of the other five NE states, it will be time to abandon the northeast.”

That time was long ago. NH started turning blue when the migration of democratic Massholes began moving into southern NH for tax relief. Like all such, they brought their liberal politics with them. We have friends in northern NH and even in that relatively conservative portion of the state, the blue tide is about to take over as more “southerners” (defined as anyone who lives south of the Notch) move in for summer homes that are going for cheap as the mills in the north have shut down.

By: Banned Lizard

Banned Lizard — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 09:12:09 +0000

Ditto, Skip.

Meanwhile, the DeSantis drama is playing out as expected. He’s learning the hard way what any level of association with a member of the Bush clan can do to you politically. If he was a better campaigner, the loss would be tragic.

By: Skip

Skip — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 02:13:41 +0000

I’m a NeverNikki

By: JD Keene

JD Keene — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 02:09:23 +0000

“a very good possibility that a Democrat may win the NH governorship”

So the D’s have a bench and the R’s do not? The state R party apparatchik seems useless… I have been to some of their county meetings and it’s like visiting an elder care facility.

Once NH goes the way of the other five NE states, it will be time to abandon the northeast.