As pointed out by Ukraine Matters, getting to Tokmak to threaten the railroads was the key to the offensive this summer. That hasn’t happened, yet. Russian logistics are railroad dependent. Tokmak is still at least 10-12 km away. Russia has already lost many rail nodes is Crimea (cruise missiles can do that). The Kerch Straight Bridge is already vulnerable, will a third attack be the last strike needed?

You an Vlad may worry about it. House of cards and all that.

I don’t know what Jazz Shaw’s position is on our support, but he appears a little perturbed at the presumption of Europe.

Meanwhile Shaw says this, “It’s worth noting that the Foreign Ministers of Hungary and Poland didn’t make the trip. That may or may not signal something, but there have been increased tensions in those countries over the endless aid flowing into Ukraine and the scant progress shown in the counter-offensive.”

Is Poland starting to have buyer’s remorse at the number of refugees that have fled Ukraine?

EU leaders assure Zelensky that everything is just fine
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/10/02/eu-leaders-assure-zelensky-that-everything-is-just-fine-n581808

As I said earlier, some Europeans (“leaders”) don’t know a dangerous imperialist dictator when he is waging war in plain sight. Pity for them and theirs,

Ukraine Matters wasn’t negative enough about Ukrainian prospects? Or just not Colonel Macgregor?

Kerch Straight Bridge is a dead man walking.

ATCMS and GLSDBs are coming.

The Mig 29 is not F-16 equivalent.

The F-16 will allow usage of more capable western weapons. More airframes for Stormshadow missiles, for example. No one is saying that the west is suppling enough F-16 to allow Ukraine to achieve air superiority. The F-16 will allow local push back of Russian air assets (KA-52s and the fixed wing aircraft,)

Meager gains? Well how’s that Black Sea fleet and the Bakhmut situation going for Vladdy, and those aren’t the primary theaters? How is th Russian offensive going lately, a lot of Nazis (in Russia) yet to be eliminated.

What are this person’s qualifications to make these conclusions?

From what I’ve read and heard, the F-16 by itself will not give Ukraine air dominance, and that is what is needed to make the advances Ukraine would need to cut off the supply routes to Crimea.

The F-16 does have some advantages in dogfighting, so does the Mig-29. And to provide the kind of air support for Ukraine’s goal of cutting off supply routes to Crimea, they open themselves up to a formidible SAM defensive system across the border. Because of the nature of the plane, airbase will need to be established in the west, which will make rapid responses more difficult.

From what I’ve read, it will still take all of 2024 to build up the infrastructure to support the plane.

As to his assertion that Russia has lost the initiative to make significant offensive gains, there is this analysis by the New York Times:

“Rather than seeking rapid gains, the Russian military appears to be comfortable holding the territory it already controls, according to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London. “It’s not losing anything by not moving forward,” she said.
Russia’s forces outnumber Ukraine’s nearly three to one on the battlefield, and with a larger population to replenish its ranks, Russia could see a prolonged defense as in its interests.
“The whole strategy in Ukraine is for the Russians to let the Ukrainians run against those defenses, kill as many as possible, and destroy as much Western equipment as possible,” she added.
Russia controls about 18 percent of Ukraine — a swath of land larger than Switzerland. This includes Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine, which it has occupied since 2014.

The slowdown (Ukraine summer counteroffensive) comes with huge risks for Ukraine. If it looks unlikely to recapture large areas of the country, Western support could wane, either through lack of political will or unwillingness to donate more weapons, especially given the yearslong wait for deliveries of replacement equipment.
“Russia is trying to wait out until the West turns its back,” said Dr. Miron.”

Ukrainian Offensive: Achievement Analysis – Ukraine War Update 02/Oct/2023 – Ukraine Matters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpHrLnEHi20

An assessment from a Ukraine supporter. He says some things that will bring joy to your soul, followed by some things you won’t want to admit.

Fog of war, and all that.

And now Brain E is claiming that since Vlad’s military is inept in many ways, they aren’t as much a threat as MATO feared?

Funny thing to posit; Ukraine is still trying to get them to leave what was Ukrainian territory.

Possession being 99% of Russian law, eh, Brain E?

You might want to call your Netherlander friends.

Pay attention to Vlad’s war of choice with Ukraine. Have you noticed a trend in the last year regarding who is taking back territory, or even more recently about Bakhmut? Probablly not.

Ukraine should just roll over and take it from Vlad? Propaganda Brain E?

Congratulations in recognizing that we in the USA have well funded and organized opponents to freedom in the USA; the Democrat left. Did the Dutch give you any wisdom beyond EU bureaucrats are a pox? That isvwhat they are and what they do.

Vlad isn’t the EU and the EU isn’t waging war or threatening to nuke its neighbors. Remember?

Stating the obvious and what has occurred is propaganda in your world?

Otay.

And you the return with the long lost Nazis. Sad, truly sad, Brain E.

Perghozin’s no. 2, the dude who named the Wagner group was (RIP, after Vlad’s air trafic control procedures) notable for his Nazi tats. You knew that, right?

Maybe Turtler can return to fisk you again. But it has never worked in the past.

“Some in Europe thought Hitler wasn’t such bad fellow either.”

You mean like Bandera and the Azov Brigade?

“Some thought Russia wasn’t a threat.”

You mean like Germany that climbed into bed with Russia?

“Some thought that the US would defend them, and thus never took funding of NATO seriously.”

You mean like nearly every EU country? Maybe because Russia doesn’t represent the threat to them that it does to the US if we lose our economic status.

Let’s lay aside the snark, gottcha moments and engage in a conversation.

Russia isn’t our greatest threat, it’s the cultural marxists that are bent on destroying our society/culture.

The couple I mentioned recognize that Putin would like to re-establish Russian dominance in their sphere of influence– similar to every other great power. The question is, what’s the best way to counter that? I don’t believe it’s funding Ukraine to destroy itself. The argument is that Russian annexation can’t stand, yet after a year and a half of war how much territory has Ukraine gained? And at what cost? How many Ukrainians have been killed and wounded?

I listened to some of the Perun video you linked to and one of the things that stood out to me was the level of carnage inflicted by artillery. Something like the IED wounds in Iraq and Afghanistan, I presume, only at a magnitude greater numbers of wounded and killed.

Given that Russia has demonstrated so far it doesn’t have the technical ability to conduct a modern military campaign with air dominance, why do you think Russia is a physical threat to Europe, including new Europe.

The problem is 30 or 40 Abrams tanks, or 50 or 60 F-16s aren’t going to turn the tide. I doubt that the European NATO countries have the ability to affect the course of the war. Given Russia’s reliance on SAM’s as a defense, it would take the USAF’s complete arsenal to gain dominance– and that would of course inevitably lead to a nuclear confrontation.

We completely overestimated the effects of our sanctions and instead have encouraged a renewed interest in BRICS by non-aligned countries interested in sticking it to the dominant world power.

I’m not sure there is an answer– just as I’m not sure there is an answer to the cultural marxists destablizing our culture/society. One of the strengths of the left/marxists is controlling the narrative. Russia is certainly expert at using narrative to their advantage (a leftover from their communist heritage, or something intrinsic in the Russian psyche). Ukrainian are also masters of propaganda (learned it from the Russians?).

So my question to you is why do you think Russia represents a physical threat to European countries, given their demonstrated lack of ability to engage in modern warfare?

So, after a year and a half of war, what do we know about the Russian military? They don’t have top notch military strategists. They don’t have the capability of air dominance. They are willing to sustain high losses using traditional military tactics.

How would they fair if they used those tactics against Estonia, for example. As I understand it, that’s one of the NATO countries concerned about Russian expansionism.