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	Comments on: Open thread 8/22/23	</title>
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	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: G McMurtrey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695497</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[G McMurtrey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Aug 2023 15:21:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695497</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Ukrainian dancers, in person, are full of life and joyful as well as beautiful.  You just want to join with them! This compares to the Georgian dancers that you showed a few days previously, that are also beautiful and amazingly graceful, but more militaristic and dark. Interesting to compare as representatives of their cultures.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Ukrainian dancers, in person, are full of life and joyful as well as beautiful.  You just want to join with them! This compares to the Georgian dancers that you showed a few days previously, that are also beautiful and amazingly graceful, but more militaristic and dark. Interesting to compare as representatives of their cultures.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695451</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Aug 2023 04:15:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695451</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think that, in respect to publicizing top secret national security information, all Presidents should be held to the same standard as the New York Times, because anything they choose to print is obviously automatically declassified.

https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/505/new-york-times-co-v-united-states]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think that, in respect to publicizing top secret national security information, all Presidents should be held to the same standard as the New York Times, because anything they choose to print is obviously automatically declassified.</p>
<p><a href="https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/505/new-york-times-co-v-united-states" rel="nofollow ugc">https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/505/new-york-times-co-v-united-states</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Richard Aubrey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695417</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Aubrey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Aug 2023 00:47:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695417</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Bauxite.  As Neo--and I--said, the existence of a plan for invading Iran is not news.  It cannot not exist.  That its existence is classified is meaningless but likely solves some issue of continuity or something.
We have the plan, the Iranians know we have the plan because we have plans for a lot of things and they&#039;d be at the top of the list.  This makes no difference.
What details are in the--presumably four pages--plan are so broad and thus so vague that, even if Trump showed it to the Iranians instead of somebody in his office, the Iranians would be none the wiser. And we&#039;re not sure he showed what passes for details in such a short draft to anybody.  Maybe just waved it around in his big-mouth style.
 Of course, we&#039;d do.... thus and such.
Talked to a guy who&#039;d just finished Major school--crap, I remember when he was born--and we kicked around the following:  The 173d Airborne Brigade out of Vicenza is going to jump on Teheran airfield.  Here&#039;s the problem:  How do we get enough transports to Vicenza to fly the op?  Where do they come from?  Show us the plan for notifying the losing units.  Show us the units likely to lose their jets have a plan for getting them to Vicenza fast.  Do we have enough gas in the tanks at Vicenza?  If not, what&#039;s the plan?  Do the places where we&#039;d get it know we might need it in Vicenza and show us their plan for replenishment.  Are the tanks even big enough?  Will there be enough maintainers to do the routine maintenance at the field? If not, where to they come from?  Will they need refueling out of Lajes or the UK or someplace.  If so....
Show us the losing units are aware and have contingency plans.  How about crew quarters?  
It got more complex from their, and we didn&#039;t have enough beer to start on taking out the IADS so the guys could get to Teheran. Rough estimate, maybe forty pages.  That doesn&#039;t count following up the requests for the losing units to show their contingency plans for operating with fewer resources.

Now, I made all this up.  But it&#039;s so likely to be part of a plan that it might be classified.  And if I can think of it--made First Lieutenant in 1970--so can the Iranian planners.

We are left with the technical issues.  The import of the document&#039;s coming to public knowledge--officially and not just as a matter of extremely common common sense--is meaningless.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bauxite.  As Neo&#8211;and I&#8211;said, the existence of a plan for invading Iran is not news.  It cannot not exist.  That its existence is classified is meaningless but likely solves some issue of continuity or something.<br />
We have the plan, the Iranians know we have the plan because we have plans for a lot of things and they&#8217;d be at the top of the list.  This makes no difference.<br />
What details are in the&#8211;presumably four pages&#8211;plan are so broad and thus so vague that, even if Trump showed it to the Iranians instead of somebody in his office, the Iranians would be none the wiser. And we&#8217;re not sure he showed what passes for details in such a short draft to anybody.  Maybe just waved it around in his big-mouth style.<br />
 Of course, we&#8217;d do&#8230;. thus and such.<br />
Talked to a guy who&#8217;d just finished Major school&#8211;crap, I remember when he was born&#8211;and we kicked around the following:  The 173d Airborne Brigade out of Vicenza is going to jump on Teheran airfield.  Here&#8217;s the problem:  How do we get enough transports to Vicenza to fly the op?  Where do they come from?  Show us the plan for notifying the losing units.  Show us the units likely to lose their jets have a plan for getting them to Vicenza fast.  Do we have enough gas in the tanks at Vicenza?  If not, what&#8217;s the plan?  Do the places where we&#8217;d get it know we might need it in Vicenza and show us their plan for replenishment.  Are the tanks even big enough?  Will there be enough maintainers to do the routine maintenance at the field? If not, where to they come from?  Will they need refueling out of Lajes or the UK or someplace.  If so&#8230;.<br />
Show us the losing units are aware and have contingency plans.  How about crew quarters?<br />
It got more complex from their, and we didn&#8217;t have enough beer to start on taking out the IADS so the guys could get to Teheran. Rough estimate, maybe forty pages.  That doesn&#8217;t count following up the requests for the losing units to show their contingency plans for operating with fewer resources.</p>
<p>Now, I made all this up.  But it&#8217;s so likely to be part of a plan that it might be classified.  And if I can think of it&#8211;made First Lieutenant in 1970&#8211;so can the Iranian planners.</p>
<p>We are left with the technical issues.  The import of the document&#8217;s coming to public knowledge&#8211;officially and not just as a matter of extremely common common sense&#8211;is meaningless.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695343</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 16:07:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695343</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Bauxite:

It&#039;s a well-known fact that we have contingency plans to attack just about everybody who could even remotely be called an enemy.  Disclosing that discloses nothing.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bauxite:</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a well-known fact that we have contingency plans to attack just about everybody who could even remotely be called an enemy.  Disclosing that discloses nothing.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Snow on Pine		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695337</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Snow on Pine]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 14:36:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695337</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[RE:  China as the land of &quot;facades and shortcuts&quot;--China&#039;s &quot;tofu-dreg&quot; construction

&quot;Tofu-dreg&quot; construction is shoddy construction.

See some pretty startling examples at https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/tofu-dreg-in-china.613409/]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE:  China as the land of &#8220;facades and shortcuts&#8221;&#8211;China&#8217;s &#8220;tofu-dreg&#8221; construction</p>
<p>&#8220;Tofu-dreg&#8221; construction is shoddy construction.</p>
<p>See some pretty startling examples at <a href="https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/tofu-dreg-in-china.613409/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/tofu-dreg-in-china.613409/</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Snow on Pine		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695334</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Snow on Pine]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 14:19:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695334</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[RE:  Things are not going well in China

I&#039;ve been pointing out the tell tale signs of China&#039;s general demographic decline and, now, as well, its economic decline--and since the real estate sector represents 30-40% of the Chinese economy--any problems there are big problems with many ripple effects.

So, the fact that one of China&#039;s biggest property developers, Evergrande, with a reported $300 billion dollars in liabilities, and which was only developing some 800 projects, filed for bankruptcy in the last few days is an ominous sign. 

Now comes the news that China&#039;s largest property development company, Country Garden, with a reported 3,121 projects scattered around China&#039;s provinces, has missed interest payments, and is also likely headed for bankruptcy, which appears to be a very dire development indeed. *

*  See 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property-crisis-deepens-as-developer-country-garden-at-risk-of-default-evergrande 

See also   https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-17/explainer-country-garden-how-bad-is-chinas-property-crisis]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE:  Things are not going well in China</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been pointing out the tell tale signs of China&#8217;s general demographic decline and, now, as well, its economic decline&#8211;and since the real estate sector represents 30-40% of the Chinese economy&#8211;any problems there are big problems with many ripple effects.</p>
<p>So, the fact that one of China&#8217;s biggest property developers, Evergrande, with a reported $300 billion dollars in liabilities, and which was only developing some 800 projects, filed for bankruptcy in the last few days is an ominous sign. </p>
<p>Now comes the news that China&#8217;s largest property development company, Country Garden, with a reported 3,121 projects scattered around China&#8217;s provinces, has missed interest payments, and is also likely headed for bankruptcy, which appears to be a very dire development indeed. *</p>
<p>*  See<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property-crisis-deepens-as-developer-country-garden-at-risk-of-default-evergrande" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property-crisis-deepens-as-developer-country-garden-at-risk-of-default-evergrande</a> </p>
<p>See also   <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-17/explainer-country-garden-how-bad-is-chinas-property-crisis" rel="nofollow ugc">https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-08-17/explainer-country-garden-how-bad-is-chinas-property-crisis</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: om		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695329</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[om]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 12:37:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695329</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Concerned Conservative<img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2122.png" alt="™" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> argues the Brandon position; the pursuit of The Great Orange Whale.

Why?  Because he is.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Concerned Conservative™ argues the Brandon position; the pursuit of The Great Orange Whale.</p>
<p>Why?  Because he is.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Bauxite		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695326</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bauxite]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 11:24:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695326</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Richard Aubrey - Your argument is basically that there would be no harm in making the documents public. 

It probably shouldn&#039;t need to be argued, but you cannot defend a charge of mishandling or misappropriating classified documents by claiming that there was no harm in making the documents public. There is no such thing as a &quot;no harm, no foul&quot; defense to misappropriating classified documents. It is a core truth that there are some things that any government needs to keep secret. You cannot have a system in which every individual who encounters classified documents can appropriate or disclose them if they believe that there would be no harm in doing so. (See, for example, Reality Winner.)

On the substance, you&#039;re speculating about what was in the document. The mere existence of even a four page battle plan prepared by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to the President describing the invasion of a country with which we are not at war harms national security if disclosed. The likelihood that such a document includes information about military capabilities, tactics, and/or the like is high. In short, I don&#039;t think &quot;no harm no foul&quot; will work for you here on the facts, even if such a defense was proper.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard Aubrey &#8211; Your argument is basically that there would be no harm in making the documents public. </p>
<p>It probably shouldn&#8217;t need to be argued, but you cannot defend a charge of mishandling or misappropriating classified documents by claiming that there was no harm in making the documents public. There is no such thing as a &#8220;no harm, no foul&#8221; defense to misappropriating classified documents. It is a core truth that there are some things that any government needs to keep secret. You cannot have a system in which every individual who encounters classified documents can appropriate or disclose them if they believe that there would be no harm in doing so. (See, for example, Reality Winner.)</p>
<p>On the substance, you&#8217;re speculating about what was in the document. The mere existence of even a four page battle plan prepared by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to the President describing the invasion of a country with which we are not at war harms national security if disclosed. The likelihood that such a document includes information about military capabilities, tactics, and/or the like is high. In short, I don&#8217;t think &#8220;no harm no foul&#8221; will work for you here on the facts, even if such a defense was proper.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695304</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 02:03:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695304</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[For extra credit, there was an award-winning docudrama on Pekar&#039;s life with Paul Giamatti (before Paul Giamatti was Paul Giamatti) as Harvey Pekar:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Splendor_(film)

&quot;American Splendor&quot; was was the name of Pekar&#039;s first comic book series. I was a devoted reader back then.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For extra credit, there was an award-winning docudrama on Pekar&#8217;s life with Paul Giamatti (before Paul Giamatti was Paul Giamatti) as Harvey Pekar:</p>
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Splendor_(film)" rel="nofollow ugc">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Splendor_(film)</a></p>
<p>&#8220;American Splendor&#8221; was was the name of Pekar&#8217;s first comic book series. I was a devoted reader back then.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2023/08/22/open-thread-8-22-23/#comment-2695303</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2023 01:48:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=128138#comment-2695303</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Caroming off a physicsguy comment, I&#039;m reading &lt;b&gt;&quot;Students for a Democratic Society: A Graphic History&quot; (mostly) written by Harvey Pekar and (mostly) drawn by Gary Dumm.&lt;/b&gt;

This history is presented as an educational underground comic book. Indeed that&#039;s where Pekar and Dumm come from. 

Pekar knew Robert Crumb, the premier underground comix artist, when they were in their 20s. Pekar was a wild, Jewish, leftist college drop-out, wannabe writer, who badgered Crumb into illustrating Pekar&#039;s thin, slice-of-life, working-class stories.

Which may not sound promising, but it gave Pekar a start into a modest idiosyncratic career as a leftist writer doing semi-underground comix with accomplished artists in the field. It even led to his bizarre moments of fame as an odd gadfly appearing on the David Letterman show.

&lt;i&gt;--&quot;Harvey Pekar Isn&#039;t A Showbiz Phony &#124; Letterman&quot;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IETY0NdSXY&lt;/i&gt;

Pekar&#039;s &quot;SDS&quot; book is one of his last. He died the year after it was published. 

I bring up his &quot;SDS&quot; book because it is a good, quick history of the SDS. This is the odd, tiny radical movement which has essentially taken over the Democratic Party, and to that extent, the United States.

Conservatives might benefit from reading on how the SDS managed this trick. They might also notice how well the accessible format of &quot;SDS&quot; communicates  to a layman audience. 

This is not a new format. There is a whole raft of &quot;_____ for Beginners&quot; books which look like innocent graphic self-learning texts, but are all written from a deeply leftist POV.

Conservatives could learn from the left -- I don&#039;t mean ballot harvesting -- and it wouldn&#039;t be a bad thing.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Caroming off a physicsguy comment, I&#8217;m reading <b>&#8220;Students for a Democratic Society: A Graphic History&#8221; (mostly) written by Harvey Pekar and (mostly) drawn by Gary Dumm.</b></p>
<p>This history is presented as an educational underground comic book. Indeed that&#8217;s where Pekar and Dumm come from. </p>
<p>Pekar knew Robert Crumb, the premier underground comix artist, when they were in their 20s. Pekar was a wild, Jewish, leftist college drop-out, wannabe writer, who badgered Crumb into illustrating Pekar&#8217;s thin, slice-of-life, working-class stories.</p>
<p>Which may not sound promising, but it gave Pekar a start into a modest idiosyncratic career as a leftist writer doing semi-underground comix with accomplished artists in the field. It even led to his bizarre moments of fame as an odd gadfly appearing on the David Letterman show.</p>
<p><i>&#8211;&#8220;Harvey Pekar Isn&#8217;t A Showbiz Phony | Letterman&#8221;<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IETY0NdSXY" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IETY0NdSXY</a></i></p>
<p>Pekar&#8217;s &#8220;SDS&#8221; book is one of his last. He died the year after it was published. </p>
<p>I bring up his &#8220;SDS&#8221; book because it is a good, quick history of the SDS. This is the odd, tiny radical movement which has essentially taken over the Democratic Party, and to that extent, the United States.</p>
<p>Conservatives might benefit from reading on how the SDS managed this trick. They might also notice how well the accessible format of &#8220;SDS&#8221; communicates  to a layman audience. </p>
<p>This is not a new format. There is a whole raft of &#8220;_____ for Beginners&#8221; books which look like innocent graphic self-learning texts, but are all written from a deeply leftist POV.</p>
<p>Conservatives could learn from the left &#8212; I don&#8217;t mean ballot harvesting &#8212; and it wouldn&#8217;t be a bad thing.</p>
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