Crab Girdles
10 hours ago
“Long ago and far away, I lived in a banana republic. Over 7 years we had 5 governments, only one of them elected, and that one didn’t last long. In a tiny undeveloped country, if the coup-makers seize the head of state’s residence, the radio station, and the main barracks, they’re pretty much in control of the country. (Frederick Forsythe’s Dogs of War didn’t simplify things as much as one might think.)

“Since then I’ve always assumed that such a coup couldn’t scale up to a large country. Today’s news out of Russia suggests I was mistaken, because the events sound eerily familiar.“

Sage observers have said that traditional, necessary things to make a coup succeed were absent here. Now I’m not sure this thesis fully fly’s — events were proceeding too fast and furiously to know otherwise.

But one requirement leaps out at me: Prigozhan had not controlled the media, and didn’t seem even bent towards doing so.

He has been called “Putin’s chef” because he made his early money as a caterer. That early in career life fact screams “out of my depth.” But so does running a ruthless mercenary army…so?

One COMMENTER at Instapundit has solid insight from history. Namely, precedent: “Sort of reminiscent of the 1991 Soviet coup, for those old enough to remember. Gorbachev was placed under house arrest, but two days later everybody said, ‘never mind’ and let’s just pretend this never happened.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_d%27état_attempt

True enough! Even if crazier now.

Has Russia actually annexed territory from Belarus? The Belarusian government, ie Lukashenko, is aligned with Moscow, that has been true pretty much since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

“[Medvedev] would be the likely successor to Putin and a real problem for the West”

My impression of Medvedev is that he is a weaker figure than Putin, admittedly based on scant evidence. It would look more to me like the final days of the Soviet Union, supporting the “demise of the assabiyah” theory. But Russia is always full of surprises.

It certainly isn’t clear yet whether this is going to be such a major turning point. However it is true that though Putin may no longer be an ideological communist he is entirely a product of the Soviet system. He was an officer in KGB for 15 years.

I can’t disagree with your comment about the terrible forecasting record of political scientists.

But to be fair, Galeev compared the 1990’s to what we may see in the 2020’s. His tweet didn’t compare the 2020’s to 1917. He did, however, say “[t]he assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly.” I agree that sounds like an extreme statement.

I can’t remember whether Galeev has addressed the role of demographic changes, but I think that many observers have said that demography will affect changes in the empire’s elite composition. Will the rest of the 2020’s mark an historical break in the composition of the Russian empire’s elite? I guess we’ll soon see.

Yes, 51 top US intelligence officials have assured me it has all the earmarks.

But what does Prigozhan gain? He has always been under the MoD. Apparently, that’s off. And he has gained some elevated status, militarily. Including the demotion of the generals he’s long-butted heads with.

Surely, there is more fallout to come from this flash fire coup. What that is leaves much to speculate on. From Zerohedge,

“Update(1325ET): An emerging Russian state media headline: Prigozhin Agrees to Stop PMC Wagner March, Start De-Escalation After Lukashenko’s Mediation…

“Belarusian president held talks with Prigozhin today. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin has agreed to ‘stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate.’

“Prigozhin has reportedly accepted Lukashenka’s proposal to stop the movement of PMC Wagner, according to Russian state media TASS. Reuters is also reporting the Kremlin-backed statements. Did we just witness a 22-hour coup? All over now?…

According to RT’s reporting:

“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Saturday that he had arranged a deal whereby Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for ‘security guarantees’ for his fighters.

‘Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed men of Wagner in Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tension,’ read a statement from Lukashenko’s office.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-blasts-wagner-treason-betrayal-clashes-erupt-southern-russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2ZfC3JmCp8