https://notthebee.com/article/a-major-florida-tourist-town-is-gone-after-hurricane-ian-blew-through

“Fort Myers Beach, along with Lee County’s other barrier islands, took the brunt of Hurricane Ian’s assault on Florida’s coastline. The storm, a Category 4 when it made landfall, sent 150 mph winds and a towering storm surge tearing through the town’s center. …

The commercial center of the beach town was ravaged by the hurricane,”

Before & after pictures show the extent of the damage.

Of all the stupid things that tv does repeatedly, weather talking heads hanging out in the middle of the storms while warning us to stay inside may be the most stupid.

Years ago my daughter here in Ca lost her home in a mudslide. Hers was one of only two lost. Insurance called it a flood, and not covered. I commented that if you are going to be hit by a natural disaster, better that it is big enough to get government attention. This event illustrates how stupid that remark was. Sometimes a disaster is too big for government, or any other human power. Nothing but time, in many cases a very long time, will help the people in the path of this one–and some will never recover.

Empathy for those whose lives have been turned topsy turvy.

Using five years of model runs doesn’t seem to make much sense.

So now this storm center will pass just to our west, and we’re going to get tropical storm wind gusts this afternoon, but other than a gloomy day stuck inside it’s not a problem.

I’ve been following the models for Ian all along. This year, the GFS has been off on its track predictions with a definite west bias. For Ian, the UK and Euro have been spot on showing a continuing east motion before FL and also showing the exit into the Atlantic and north towards the Carolinas well before the GFS and other models. NOAA has taken the middle ground on their official track which, I think, hindered their forecast and had the Tampa landfall wrong, while the UK-Euro showed Ft. Meyers.

Also, not many people know this, but the “cone” is an average of uncertainties over 5 years of model runs, not the current uncertainty in the current year models. I talked to several of my other experimental physics colleagues, and to us it doesn’t make sense as the models are updated each year, so the uncertainty in this year’s runs should have very little in common with runs from 5 years ago. NOAA may have a good reason, but on the surface doesn’t make a lot of sense.

AesopFan, it’s partly that DeSantis is a competent administrator, and partly that this isn’t Florida’s first hurricane. They know what can happen and they know what they have to do.

Absolutely true, and it will be worse during, and after, rebuild as so many rooves get replaced. In 2004 we went through Charley (8/13), then Francis, then Jean, and Ivan after hitting the panhandle added spice by looping back through Florida as a tropical depression. By December/January 2005 the sound of roofing air nailers in the neighborhood was as common as chirping birds.

I wound up buying a couple used “toy spares” – the down-sized “emergency” spare tires – for Partner in Crime’s car and put a hydraulic jack and cordless impact wrench in the trunk because a fast tire swap was better than trying Roadside Recovery with a plugging kit and 12 volt compressor. There were days she went through both toy spares.

For my truck, alas, no such animal, so I bought a used – but still true – wheel and a new tire (mucho $$ for that size) and tossed it in the bed so I had 2 spares. Got lucky and had to use it only twice.

FYI, there are a couple good tire plugging kits available, and i have one in each vehicle, but the best plugging job will be done by a skilled tire repair shop. You have to get there first, though….

And, Rufus, I wish you the best, that the damage is not as bad as imagined and the repairs quicker. Glad that you were an observer and not a participant in this one. I’m starting to hear from friends in Naples and it was brutal.

https://media.notthebee.com/articles/article-6332f2023e9a6.jpg

Today, not so much.

https://nypost.com/2022/09/29/23-chilling-photos-of-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-ian/