R2L:

I don’t consider it estimable, much less knowable. We largely go on intuition when it comes to such probabilities and intuition is a notoriously poor guide to probability.

I still can’t justify the Monty Hall Problem to myself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

However, when I encounter bland “who knows what could happen out of trillions and trillions and millions of years” claims, I’m immediately skeptical. A trillion is really not a big number and neither is a million. My sense (intuitive and unreliable) is the odds are by far on the other side.

Glad you are reading and commenting about this, as I have already forgotten too much of what I had previously read about it.

Good points, taken.

However, being a fan of long shots, I stand up for their existence and potential significance. It’s a long shot for predator and prey to lay down together, but it can happen — not often, but still. Life allows for some randomness and novelty.

As it happens, I’ve been reading about the evolution of the more advanced eukaryotic cells (that includes us!). Keeping it simple, the strongest theory is that eukaryotic cells emerged from the more primitive prokaryotic cells. One such cell absorbed and merged with another cell which became our mitochondria today.

This is much weirder than a leopard laying down with a cow. However, mitochondria supply chemical energy to the cell, and without mitochondria earth life wouldn’t have gotten past pond scum.

Some argue that the unlikelihood of the eukaryotic cell advance explains the Fermi Paradox, the question of where is alien life, if it is out there.

We humans and our eukaryotic cousins may be much rarer than we think.

is unbelievable! It’s not a long news article, but it’s a “read the entire thing” piece. Excerpting any part of it would not give credence to the sheer duplicitousness and unreasonableness of the teachers this dad encountered, nor what they tried to do to him.

The species survival benefit is clear why even herbivores do it: If the species is that of another herbivore, it may well be competition for food. If it’s a carnivore, the herbivores may become its prey.

The silly video cites the Mowgli (similarly, there is the “Lucan/Lycan” meme, as well as “Tarzan”) as an example that such things happen, suggesting they happen often, instead of remarkably rarely. In actual fact, what makes the Mowgli/Lucan/Tarzan meme so notable is how RARE it happens. Given humanity has now had about 500k years to have such events happen, there are three such memes, out of how many millions of people born? Even when you pare that down to “lost child-orphans”, it’s probably still in the millions of lost children. And all of three examples exist in our lore.

Oh, yeah, they’re happening alllllll the time, ain’t they?

I’m under the impression that cheetahs only live in Africa.

Brief citation: Plokhy, Serhii. 2021. The gates of Europe: a history of Ukraine.

As far as I can tell, this is a serious work, but written for the non-specialist. The book should arrive in about a week, so I’ll soon see how it goes.

Could Hubert, as an ex-bibliographer of Slavic materials, suggest a brief reading list for those who care to improve their grasp of Ukrainian and Russian history? Thanks.

Our foreign policy did not create Russia’s political culture, nor did it manufacture Russia’s political class.

“Clint Ehrlich
@ClintEhrlich
·
19h
It’s easy to laugh at “brainwashed Russians” and mock the country as the new North Korea.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that’s true:

Should the U.S. be proud of a foreign policy that has created a “new North Korea” with 6,000 nukes?”

Mike