John McCain perfected that schtick.

“I have told the president, [Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer, and even the whole Caucus that if it is ‘embarrassing’ to them to have a moderate, centrist Democrat in the mix and if it would help them publicly, I could become an Independent,” Manchin told The Hill. “Then they could explain some of this to the public saying it’s complicated to corral these two independents, Bernie [Sanders] and me.”

If Manchin did formally leave the party, he said, he would still caucus with the Democrats, like Sanders and Maine Sen. Angus King.

How much more clearer can they make this?

He cops to what I’ve been saying all along: “mavericks” exist to fool the party’s base about what the party’s actually up to.

https://redstate.com/bonchie/2021/10/21/joe-manchin-admits-he-discussed-becoming-an-independent-n460503?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=719

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/10/the-manchin-proviso-2.php
“Mother Jones magazine, which is quite left but actually serious about doing good reporting, has a story out today that has everyone buzzing—Joe Manchin is thinking about leaving the Democratic caucus in the Senate, and becoming an independent. I expect this means he would caucus with Republicans, because otherwise he’d likely have to surrender his chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.”

Per the American Conservative Union, Shelby during the period running from 1980 to 1994 tended to vote the right way about 63% of the time. Note, the Dixiecrat element in Congress was largely wiped out in the 1994 elections and there was only a single-digit population left. Shelby’s position was quite anomalous. Manchin is the right flank of the Senate Democratic caucus, but the ACU reports he votes the right way only about 28% of the time and is much closer to the median of the Democratic caucus than he is to the Republican caucus. Shelby was 60 in 1994; Manchin is 74 today. It’s a reasonable wager one of them anticipated a longer run of years in Congress than the other.

He’s 74 years old and has already served two terms as W Va. governor. West Virginia’s governor thought it prudent in 2017 to change parties from Democrat to Republican, so I tend to doubt Manchin is hoping to prosper by catering to ‘lefties’.

He will be 77 in 2024. Does he plan to run again? Good question.

West Virginia has become a deep red state; will that factor in? Possibly.

Forget about Jeffords. Go back further, to Dick Shelby (who is still in the Senate). Conservative Democrat Senator from an increasingly Republican state. But he waited until after the 1994 GOP victory to switch parties. He did so in part because he planned to run again (and again, and again, and again) and because he knew he’d stay in the majority. That’s Manchin’s plan, I’d wager.

No switch unless and until there’s a GOP Senate majority.

Neo, I believe it was Lucy who repeatedly told that reassuring lie. And like the gullible American public, Charley Brown bought it time after time.