Comments on: The economy surprises the “experts” – again

By: obloodyhell

obloodyhell — Sun, 09 May 2021 11:54:33 +0000

Meme floating around:

We need to spend trillions on a JOBS bill? How about we just do what we did a year ago that got ONE of the best, if not THE best, economies in history, and didn't cost a dime?

By: gmmay70

gmmay70 — Sat, 08 May 2021 20:15:57 +0000

Indigo+Red,

Yes, the old formula – inverted during the Trump years – is back: All negative economic news is “Unexpected”.

I swear that those corresponding keys on the keyboards of Bloomberg writers had to have required monthly replacement during Obama’s reign. Likewise during Trump’s short tenure.

By: Indigo+Red

Indigo+Red — Sat, 08 May 2021 18:48:52 +0000

America is back!!!

… as it was under Obama when each employment report was released with great fanfare and success but later must be revised downward when no one is looking.

Under President Trump, nearly every employment report had to be revised upward as the markets exceeded expectations.

By: gmmay70

gmmay70 — Sat, 08 May 2021 18:41:06 +0000

Although I’m sure that the Getting Paid Not To Work factor is strong in the equation, I’m not discounting the perfectly rational choice of many of those folks not wanting to bother applying for jobs in the industries that have been hardest hit by the caprices of their state and local governments. Why bother when the next lockdown is just going to put you out of work again?

I’d like to see a state by state breakdown, to compare those that didn’t lockdown or came out of lockdown early against those with more draconian or arbitrary lockdown standards.

By: gmmay70

gmmay70 — Sat, 08 May 2021 18:36:15 +0000

John Fisher,

“I’ve seen some speculation elsewhere that the Biden administration may have tweaked the number upward to encourage the push for additional stimulus. Cynical of me to share, I know.”

Considering that we haven’t measured inflation or GDP according to more traditional, realistic metrics for years (since the Obama admin for GDP, and decades for inflation), I’d say you’re not being cynical, but rational.

By: om

om — Sat, 08 May 2021 17:44:07 +0000

Griffin:

It is a feature not a bug?

By: Griffin

Griffin — Sat, 08 May 2021 16:49:11 +0000

Mike K,

The state of WA had the same problem with UE benefits fraud and of course the woman in charge got a new job in the Biden administration.

By: Jeff+Brokaw

Jeff+Brokaw — Sat, 08 May 2021 16:30:25 +0000

They’ll start paying attention when grocery store prices start creeping up this summer … everybody notices when the grocery store tab grows, despite the idiotic yammering of Janet Yellen.

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Sat, 08 May 2021 16:17:34 +0000

@Mike K: As long as California keeps their criminals-at-large, let them deal with it.
I’m not going there any time soon.
Unfortunately, we can’t seal the borders between states.

By: Mike+K

Mike+K — Sat, 08 May 2021 15:44:23 +0000

California, of course, has had a scandal (One you never heard of) with unemployment benefit fraud. California paid out $11 billion in bogus jobless claims in 2020, and investigators are looking into possible fraud involving $20 billion more, authorities said Monday, according to CBS Los Angeles. Between March 2020 and January 16, 2021, the California Employment Development Department processed 19.5 million claims and paid out $114 billion in unemployment benefits — roughly 9.7% of which were paid out to fraudulent claims, the agency said. The employment department also identified that up to an additional 17% of payments made during this time have been made to potentially fraudulent claims, which are currently being investigated, officials said. Pretty soon, we'll be talking about real money. Much of that was paid to prisoners. The state plans to solve that problem by releasing 76,000 of them. Is California smart or what ?