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	Comments on: So here&#8217;s my question for all you epidemiologists and infectious disease experts out there &#8211;	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/</link>
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		<title>
		By: Bill		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2485114</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2020 06:32:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2485114</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[For Huxley, the numbers you show don’t really look bad for us. Italy, Germany and Spain total about 190 million population, while we are at 330 million. 8200 new cases for them in total, 1300 for us. Given all 4 countries got exposed at the same time from China related incoming travelers, we should have experienced about 40% more new cases than they totaled, yet we actually have 1/6th their new cases.

Logically speaking the most likely reason is Trump sealing the Border with China almost immediately, even tho the start dates were close to one another, far fewer people got into the US with this than other countries, who just in the past few days sealed their borders.

I’m very angry that we are reacting so severely that we are crushing many people’s lives over concern for a hypothetical case for which we have absolutely no corroborating date to support the official outlook. Nobody at this stage knows exactly what percentage of the population has had or does have this, so we don’t even know the infection rate or the fatality rate, anywhere, due to small testing samples.

There is one exception to this, and that is the Diamond Princess, which is the only closed system in which we know the exact population, the number infected, and the number of fatalities. In that closed environment, with petrie dish conditions ideal to disease transfer, 18% of the population on the boat got sick, about 700, and there were 7 deaths, generating a case fatality rate of 1%, and a population mortality rate of .002. That’s with a demographic spread that is significantly older and more infirm than the overall US demographic. All of the fatalities were over 65 years old.

IMO, the most practical way to deal with this is to have the gravely at risk population stay home, receive no visitors, including family members, until there is a vaccine or successful therapeutic treatment, and the rest of the population go back to work. Governors and mayors, by their draconian shutting down of entire industries in the name of “flattening the curve
“ through social distancing are putting millions of workers who live paycheck to paycheck in a position of financial disaster and risking not just a recession, but a depression. We flat out don’t know this is worse than the flu, which kills hundreds daily and 15,000-70000 in any given year, with tens of millions infected. We don’t shut down the economy for the flu, and we shouldn’t shut it down for Wuhan virus.

We’ve come to this pass due to the media scare tactics, combined with the at risk elderlies putting extreme pressure on politicians, who than cover their butts by edicts ceasing various forms of commerce such as restaurants, bars, conventions, trade shows , city lockdowns that greatly interfere with our personal freedoms as well as costing jobs for people who live paycheck to paycheck, which is at least 40 % of Americans.

So I’m hoping that the so called professional will find a way to get us back close to normal except for the most fatally at risk ASAP,else our economy will go into deep recession.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For Huxley, the numbers you show don’t really look bad for us. Italy, Germany and Spain total about 190 million population, while we are at 330 million. 8200 new cases for them in total, 1300 for us. Given all 4 countries got exposed at the same time from China related incoming travelers, we should have experienced about 40% more new cases than they totaled, yet we actually have 1/6th their new cases.</p>
<p>Logically speaking the most likely reason is Trump sealing the Border with China almost immediately, even tho the start dates were close to one another, far fewer people got into the US with this than other countries, who just in the past few days sealed their borders.</p>
<p>I’m very angry that we are reacting so severely that we are crushing many people’s lives over concern for a hypothetical case for which we have absolutely no corroborating date to support the official outlook. Nobody at this stage knows exactly what percentage of the population has had or does have this, so we don’t even know the infection rate or the fatality rate, anywhere, due to small testing samples.</p>
<p>There is one exception to this, and that is the Diamond Princess, which is the only closed system in which we know the exact population, the number infected, and the number of fatalities. In that closed environment, with petrie dish conditions ideal to disease transfer, 18% of the population on the boat got sick, about 700, and there were 7 deaths, generating a case fatality rate of 1%, and a population mortality rate of .002. That’s with a demographic spread that is significantly older and more infirm than the overall US demographic. All of the fatalities were over 65 years old.</p>
<p>IMO, the most practical way to deal with this is to have the gravely at risk population stay home, receive no visitors, including family members, until there is a vaccine or successful therapeutic treatment, and the rest of the population go back to work. Governors and mayors, by their draconian shutting down of entire industries in the name of “flattening the curve<br />
“ through social distancing are putting millions of workers who live paycheck to paycheck in a position of financial disaster and risking not just a recession, but a depression. We flat out don’t know this is worse than the flu, which kills hundreds daily and 15,000-70000 in any given year, with tens of millions infected. We don’t shut down the economy for the flu, and we shouldn’t shut it down for Wuhan virus.</p>
<p>We’ve come to this pass due to the media scare tactics, combined with the at risk elderlies putting extreme pressure on politicians, who than cover their butts by edicts ceasing various forms of commerce such as restaurants, bars, conventions, trade shows , city lockdowns that greatly interfere with our personal freedoms as well as costing jobs for people who live paycheck to paycheck, which is at least 40 % of Americans.</p>
<p>So I’m hoping that the so called professional will find a way to get us back close to normal except for the most fatally at risk ASAP,else our economy will go into deep recession.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2485067</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2020 01:36:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2485067</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[jakhny on March 18, 2020 at 9:19 am said:
The plan is to flatten the curve to buy time not just to allow time for the production and distribution of more equipment. The main purpose is to buy time for the development, production and distribution of treatment medications which can and will be available much faster than a vaccine.
* * *
I assume most readers are following the treatment developments.
The problem lies not with the doctors &#038; developers, but with the entrenched gatekeepers.

A couple of promising developments from Dictator Trump:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-admin-to-allow-all-medical-personnel-to-practice-across-state-lines-to-stem-spread-of-pandemic/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&#038;utm_medium=article&#038;utm_campaign=river&#038;utm_content=top-bar-latest&#038;utm_term=third

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/the-fda-strikes-again.php
&lt;blockquote&gt; POSTED ON MARCH 18, 2020 BY SCOTT JOHNSON IN CORONAVIRUS
THE FDA STRIKES AGAIN
The WSJ briefly reports that President Trump has “considered issuing an executive order greatly expanding the use of investigational drugs against the new coronavirus, but was met with objections from Food and Drug Administration scientists who warned it could pose unneeded risks to patients[.]” 
The Journal report bears on our push to raise awareness of possible therapies and get some action on them. Our friend Brian Sullivan comments:

(see a couple of posts over the last few days with sensible messages from Sullivan)
&lt;/blockquote&gt; 

Let&#039;s hope The Dictator overrules The Bureaucrats.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>jakhny on March 18, 2020 at 9:19 am said:<br />
The plan is to flatten the curve to buy time not just to allow time for the production and distribution of more equipment. The main purpose is to buy time for the development, production and distribution of treatment medications which can and will be available much faster than a vaccine.<br />
* * *<br />
I assume most readers are following the treatment developments.<br />
The problem lies not with the doctors &amp; developers, but with the entrenched gatekeepers.</p>
<p>A couple of promising developments from Dictator Trump:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-admin-to-allow-all-medical-personnel-to-practice-across-state-lines-to-stem-spread-of-pandemic/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&#038;utm_medium=article&#038;utm_campaign=river&#038;utm_content=top-bar-latest&#038;utm_term=third" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-admin-to-allow-all-medical-personnel-to-practice-across-state-lines-to-stem-spread-of-pandemic/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&#038;utm_medium=article&#038;utm_campaign=river&#038;utm_content=top-bar-latest&#038;utm_term=third</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/the-fda-strikes-again.php" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/the-fda-strikes-again.php</a></p>
<blockquote><p> POSTED ON MARCH 18, 2020 BY SCOTT JOHNSON IN CORONAVIRUS<br />
THE FDA STRIKES AGAIN<br />
The WSJ briefly reports that President Trump has “considered issuing an executive order greatly expanding the use of investigational drugs against the new coronavirus, but was met with objections from Food and Drug Administration scientists who warned it could pose unneeded risks to patients[.]”<br />
The Journal report bears on our push to raise awareness of possible therapies and get some action on them. Our friend Brian Sullivan comments:</p>
<p>(see a couple of posts over the last few days with sensible messages from Sullivan)
</p></blockquote>
<p>Let&#8217;s hope The Dictator overrules The Bureaucrats.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484976</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 18:01:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484976</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;Science&quot; magazine recommends South Korea as an example of good COVID control:

&lt;i&gt;South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

South Korea’s experience shows that “diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,” says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. “Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,” she says.

--&quot;Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success?&quot;
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success&lt;/i&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Science&#8221; magazine recommends South Korea as an example of good COVID control:</p>
<p><i>South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.</p>
<p>South Korea’s experience shows that “diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,” says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. “Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,” she says.</p>
<p>&#8211;&#8220;Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success?&#8221;<br />
<a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success</a></i></p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484973</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 17:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484973</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Today Italy, Spain and Germany report 4207, 2084 and 1935 new cases respectively. 

The US isn&#039;t looking too cool either with 1267 new cases. Meanwhile China, which has 8043 active cases, only reports 13 new cases.

I&#039;m not understanding how these numbers work, assuming they are roughly accurate.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today Italy, Spain and Germany report 4207, 2084 and 1935 new cases respectively. </p>
<p>The US isn&#8217;t looking too cool either with 1267 new cases. Meanwhile China, which has 8043 active cases, only reports 13 new cases.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not understanding how these numbers work, assuming they are roughly accurate.</p>
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		By: Art Deco		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484966</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Art Deco]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 16:33:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484966</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;We do not have the resources to take all old and vulnerable people out of their families and communities.&lt;/i&gt;

So what?  You want to improve matters, segregate the old as much as you can manage.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>We do not have the resources to take all old and vulnerable people out of their families and communities.</i></p>
<p>So what?  You want to improve matters, segregate the old as much as you can manage.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Ben David		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484963</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben David]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 16:19:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484963</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[1. Nothing at all unusual about asymptomatic transmission. All bugs pass this way, from people who (still) have mild symptoms. Young people are not immune to this virus - they just can fight it off, and as for all bugs that takes time. Which means that for some time their bodies are not clean of the infectious element.

2. It&#039;s not practical to completely separate older people. Families spread over several generations and include all ages. We do not have the resources to take all old and vulnerable people out of their families and communities.

3. Shutting down public venues and inducing people to avoid contact does slow the rate of new cases. And the rate = the number of serious cases our hospitals must handle at once.Too many serious cases simultaneously causes bad outcomes by swamping health care facilities.

So: we can&#039;t prevent Grandpa from getting the virus, but It may now take a few more weeks for his teenage grandchild to get infected and bring it home - and that may save him.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. Nothing at all unusual about asymptomatic transmission. All bugs pass this way, from people who (still) have mild symptoms. Young people are not immune to this virus &#8211; they just can fight it off, and as for all bugs that takes time. Which means that for some time their bodies are not clean of the infectious element.</p>
<p>2. It&#8217;s not practical to completely separate older people. Families spread over several generations and include all ages. We do not have the resources to take all old and vulnerable people out of their families and communities.</p>
<p>3. Shutting down public venues and inducing people to avoid contact does slow the rate of new cases. And the rate = the number of serious cases our hospitals must handle at once.Too many serious cases simultaneously causes bad outcomes by swamping health care facilities.</p>
<p>So: we can&#8217;t prevent Grandpa from getting the virus, but It may now take a few more weeks for his teenage grandchild to get infected and bring it home &#8211; and that may save him.</p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484953</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 14:26:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484953</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s an article I find persuasive. I&#039;ve been reading Ioannidis on the reproducibility scandals of published studies for several years.

&lt;i&gt;The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

--John P.A. Ioannidis
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
&lt;/i&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s an article I find persuasive. I&#8217;ve been reading Ioannidis on the reproducibility scandals of published studies for several years.</p>
<p><i>The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.</p>
<p>This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.</p>
<p>&#8211;John P.A. Ioannidis<br />
<a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/</a><br />
</i></p>
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		<title>
		By: huxley		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484952</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[huxley]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 14:18:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484952</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I see more people at my cafe this morning. I&#039;m coming around to the arguments that COVID won&#039;t be as severe as feared and social distancing past two weeks is probably overkill.

I&#039;m annoyed how little, beyond raw data, is nailed down about this disease. I remain mystified at how different the stories told by the data are in different countries. 

I wonder why COVID hasn&#039;t burned through US homeless encampments. Wouldn&#039;t we hear about that?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see more people at my cafe this morning. I&#8217;m coming around to the arguments that COVID won&#8217;t be as severe as feared and social distancing past two weeks is probably overkill.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m annoyed how little, beyond raw data, is nailed down about this disease. I remain mystified at how different the stories told by the data are in different countries. </p>
<p>I wonder why COVID hasn&#8217;t burned through US homeless encampments. Wouldn&#8217;t we hear about that?</p>
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		<title>
		By: physicsguy		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484949</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[physicsguy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 13:24:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484949</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Today&#039;s update.  Please note I am plotting active cases, not total cases which includes recoveries and deaths.  This morning, 6311 cases, still 12 serious, which is same as yesterday.  Curve fit which I&#039;ve now filled in with daily data from worldometer:

cases = 48.397e^0.2893(days) which predicts about 6500 cases. And the final number isn&#039;t updated on the site until midnight. Social distancing, with an active period of 14 days, I would suspect take two weeks to show an effect.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today&#8217;s update.  Please note I am plotting active cases, not total cases which includes recoveries and deaths.  This morning, 6311 cases, still 12 serious, which is same as yesterday.  Curve fit which I&#8217;ve now filled in with daily data from worldometer:</p>
<p>cases = 48.397e^0.2893(days) which predicts about 6500 cases. And the final number isn&#8217;t updated on the site until midnight. Social distancing, with an active period of 14 days, I would suspect take two weeks to show an effect.</p>
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		<title>
		By: jakhny		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/17/so-heres-my-question-for-all-you-epidemiologists-and-infectious-disease-experts-out-there/#comment-2484948</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jakhny]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2020 13:19:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=94176#comment-2484948</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The plan is to flatten the curve to buy time not just to allow time for the production and distribution of more equipment. The main purpose is to buy time for the development, production and distribution of treatment medications which can and will be available much faster than a vaccine.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The plan is to flatten the curve to buy time not just to allow time for the production and distribution of more equipment. The main purpose is to buy time for the development, production and distribution of treatment medications which can and will be available much faster than a vaccine.</p>
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