Comments on: Critical care beds: this may be part of what’s wrong in Italy

By: lucky dog

lucky dog — Mon, 16 Mar 2020 19:13:21 +0000

Nice work, and it is a good example of what I have told others recently: a) Facts without Compares = Fear the Risk, or b) Facts with Compares = Understand the Risk. That is why I pulled the data noted below together – and why I appreciate your work.

***
1) Influenza Virus Deaths: USA

• 2019-2020: 22K (season not over)
• 2018-2019: 60K
• 2017-2018: 80K
• 2016-2017: 38K
• 2015-2016: 23K
• 2014-2015: 51K
• 2013-2014:
• 2012-2013: 56K
• 2011-2012: 12K
• 2010-2011:
• 2009: 12K [H1N1-Swine Flu Pandemic]
• 1968: 34-100K [H3N2-Hong Kong Flu Pandemic]
• 1957: 70-116K [H2N2-Asian Flu Pandemic]
• 1918: 675K [H1N1-Spanish Flu Pandemic]

2) Coronavirus – SARS-CoV2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) – Deaths: USA

• 2019-2020: 69 (6,705 deaths worldwide) **as of March 16, 2020

3) Coronavirus – MERS-CoV (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) – Deaths: USA

• 2012-2020: 2 cases, 0 deaths (862 deaths worldwide)

4) Coronavirus – SARS-CoV (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) – Deaths: USA

• 2003-2005: 8 cases, 0 deaths (774 deaths worldwide)

5) Coronavirus – “Common Cold” – Deaths: USA

• No data

By: Tom

Tom — Mon, 16 Mar 2020 15:59:10 +0000

I’ve been wondering what impact Obamacare has had on the number of critical care beds. That number is from 2009, which was pre-Obamacare. I’ve also been wondering what the comparison is between the US and countries with socialized medicine. (UK, Canada, etc…)

By: Griffin

Griffin — Mon, 16 Mar 2020 02:06:42 +0000

sdferr,

I thought about that with China also. Don’t know if it’s as common a practice as Italy but I imagine way more than here. Iran, too, maybe but they have many other issues of course.

So much of the US population is spread out and even many big cities are nowhere near as dense as big cities in other countries it would seem the rate of spread of the virus would be less for that reason alone.

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Mon, 16 Mar 2020 01:53:45 +0000

sdferr — I always knew those Pajama Boys were going to cause trouble.

By: sdferr

sdferr — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 23:19:57 +0000

Just saw someone point out another Italian practice which may have played a small role in higher incidence there than in some other places: 67% of 18 to 34 yr old Italians live with their parents, rather than alone or with others their age — these younger people go out, get exposure and bring the virus home where their more sedentary oldfolks catch it. Dunno, but could be a thing to look into.

By: Cornflour

Cornflour — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 21:11:10 +0000

As a population fraction, Italy has more old people than any other country except Japan. That’s not the only explanation for their troubles with the Wuhan virus, but no one denies its importance.

So why does the virus kill old people? I very, very, very rarely find anything worth reading at “Vox,” but maybe here’s the exception that proves the rule. If nothing else, for us old-timers, we should remember the phrase “cytokime storm.”

Read it or die. (Just kidding)

Here’s a link:
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21173783/coronavirus-death-age-covid-19-elderly-seniors

By: Brent Buckner

Brent Buckner — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 17:30:15 +0000

@Art Deco
– on Toronto and SARS, simply google the term:
toronto sars outbreak hospitals
and you’ll get a pile of backup for what that elsewhere-regular wrote
(e.g. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323242/ )

By: Kate

Kate — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 15:47:39 +0000

Really interesting article at the WaPo, and thanks for posting it, AesopFan. that’s what we’re hoping for with these school closures and quarantine and social distancing — that it will slow down enough to allow treatments and vaccines to come online. If it works, we won’t run out of ICU beds.

By: Rachelle

Rachelle — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 14:54:05 +0000

Canadian healty care is much better than in the US, the left always tells us.

BUT Canada has only 12.9 critical care beds per 100,000, comparable to Italy.

Even without an epidemic there are long waits for treatment in Canada.

The US has more than twice the critical care capacity.

Government medicine loved by socialists kills.

By: AesopFan

AesopFan — Sun, 15 Mar 2020 05:04:20 +0000

“That’s why all this emphasis is on “flattening the curve” of the growth of a disease in order not to overwhelm the system.” – Neo

Excellent post by the WaPo (never thought I would write that sentence), because they aren’t pushing any politics.
This link wasn’t behind the paywall when I tried it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/