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	<title>
	Comments on: The question of asymptomatic spread of COVID-19, as well as its reproduction number	</title>
	<atom:link href="https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 20:06:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Cornflour		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484258</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cornflour]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 20:06:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484258</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neo:

Whoops, I checked the wrong preprint server.  A simple google search found the paper at medRxiv and a few other preprint servers.  Of course, it may undergo further editing before publication.  I don&#039;t have time to read it right now.

Sorry I didn&#039;t do this earlier.

Here&#039;s a link:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452v3.full.pdf+html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo:</p>
<p>Whoops, I checked the wrong preprint server.  A simple google search found the paper at medRxiv and a few other preprint servers.  Of course, it may undergo further editing before publication.  I don&#8217;t have time to read it right now.</p>
<p>Sorry I didn&#8217;t do this earlier.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a link:<br />
<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452v3.full.pdf+html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452v3.full.pdf+html</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Cornflour		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484254</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cornflour]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 19:53:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484254</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neo:
  
As I&#039;ve said in both of my previous comments, the paper hasn&#039;t yet been published.  The web page for the journal issue that will include the paper provides a citation, but nothing more.

Or maybe you&#039;ve looked at preprint servers and didn&#039;t find it?  Is that what you mean?  I checked bioRxiv, but it wan&#039;t there.

Anyway, I&#039;d expect the paper to be available soon.  It looks as if about half of the papers from the June issue have been published.  For the time being, I&#039;m forced to rely on the MedicalXpress report describing the paper.  My first comment linked to that report --  the one you accurately called a press release.

I understand your preference for the original paper, but it&#039;s just not available yet.  When it becomes available, we now know where it will appear, if you care to read it at a later date.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo:</p>
<p>As I&#8217;ve said in both of my previous comments, the paper hasn&#8217;t yet been published.  The web page for the journal issue that will include the paper provides a citation, but nothing more.</p>
<p>Or maybe you&#8217;ve looked at preprint servers and didn&#8217;t find it?  Is that what you mean?  I checked bioRxiv, but it wan&#8217;t there.</p>
<p>Anyway, I&#8217;d expect the paper to be available soon.  It looks as if about half of the papers from the June issue have been published.  For the time being, I&#8217;m forced to rely on the MedicalXpress report describing the paper.  My first comment linked to that report &#8212;  the one you accurately called a press release.</p>
<p>I understand your preference for the original paper, but it&#8217;s just not available yet.  When it becomes available, we now know where it will appear, if you care to read it at a later date.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484248</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 18:38:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484248</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Cornflour:

Article not found.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cornflour:</p>
<p>Article not found.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Cornflour		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484228</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cornflour]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 05:05:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484228</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The paper&#039;s citation:
Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, Ancel Meyers L. Serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Apr [date cited]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200357

Found at the web site for the journal &quot;Emerging Infectious Diseases.&quot;
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article#suggestedcitation

The paper itself has not yet been published.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The paper&#8217;s citation:<br />
Du Z, Xu X, Wu Y, Wang L, Cowling BJ, Ancel Meyers L. Serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Apr [date cited]. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200357" rel="nofollow ugc">https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200357</a></p>
<p>Found at the web site for the journal &#8220;Emerging Infectious Diseases.&#8221;<br />
<a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article#suggestedcitation" rel="nofollow ugc">https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article#suggestedcitation</a></p>
<p>The paper itself has not yet been published.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484221</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 04:04:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484221</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Cornflour:

I searched for the text of that research you mention but I could not find it.  Unless I can read the actual report rather than a press release about it, I have no way to understand how they came to their conclusion about asymptomatic transmission.  But from that press release, I find it hard to see how the researchers could know that it was an asymptomatic exposure rather than passing by someone sneezing in the street, for example.  Here, that latter scenario would be highly unlikely, because so few people are infected at this point.  But in China, it was a lot more prevalent.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cornflour:</p>
<p>I searched for the text of that research you mention but I could not find it.  Unless I can read the actual report rather than a press release about it, I have no way to understand how they came to their conclusion about asymptomatic transmission.  But from that press release, I find it hard to see how the researchers could know that it was an asymptomatic exposure rather than passing by someone sneezing in the street, for example.  Here, that latter scenario would be highly unlikely, because so few people are infected at this point.  But in China, it was a lot more prevalent.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AesopFan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484217</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AesopFan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 03:49:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484217</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s another study like the one Cornflour mentioned (although the could be the same one; newspapers especially online are remarkably lax about their citations, especially the ones that essentially plagiarize other sources without attribution).

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Study-suggests-coronavirus-is-highly-contagious-15127538.php

This one is a study abstract, and you have to speak med-talk to understand it.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s another study like the one Cornflour mentioned (although the could be the same one; newspapers especially online are remarkably lax about their citations, especially the ones that essentially plagiarize other sources without attribution).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Study-suggests-coronavirus-is-highly-contagious-15127538.php" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Study-suggests-coronavirus-is-highly-contagious-15127538.php</a></p>
<p>This one is a study abstract, and you have to speak med-talk to understand it.<br />
<a href="https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Cornflour		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484196</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cornflour]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2020 01:56:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484196</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-quickly-people-symptoms.html

That&#039;s a link to a report describing a paper soon to be published in the journal &quot;Emerging Infectious Diseases.&quot;

Among other things, the paper addresses the the issue of pre-symptomatic patients spreading the Wuhan coronovirus infection.

The authors found that more than one in ten transmissions were by patients without symptoms.  I don&#039;t know whether I should feel encouraged or discouraged by that number.  This is just one paper; but, for what it&#039;s worth, here&#039;s a paragraph describing its contents:
 
&quot;Meyers and her team examined more than 450 infection case reports from 93 cities in China and found the strongest evidence yet that people without symptoms must be transmitting the virus, known as pre-symptomatic transmission. According to the paper, more than 1 in 10 infections were from people who had the virus but did not yet feel sick.

Previously, researchers had some uncertainty about asymptomatic transmission with the coronavirus. This new evidence could provide guidance to public health officials on how to contain the spread of the disease.&quot;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-quickly-people-symptoms.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-quickly-people-symptoms.html</a></p>
<p>That&#8217;s a link to a report describing a paper soon to be published in the journal &#8220;Emerging Infectious Diseases.&#8221;</p>
<p>Among other things, the paper addresses the the issue of pre-symptomatic patients spreading the Wuhan coronovirus infection.</p>
<p>The authors found that more than one in ten transmissions were by patients without symptoms.  I don&#8217;t know whether I should feel encouraged or discouraged by that number.  This is just one paper; but, for what it&#8217;s worth, here&#8217;s a paragraph describing its contents:</p>
<p>&#8220;Meyers and her team examined more than 450 infection case reports from 93 cities in China and found the strongest evidence yet that people without symptoms must be transmitting the virus, known as pre-symptomatic transmission. According to the paper, more than 1 in 10 infections were from people who had the virus but did not yet feel sick.</p>
<p>Previously, researchers had some uncertainty about asymptomatic transmission with the coronavirus. This new evidence could provide guidance to public health officials on how to contain the spread of the disease.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>
		By: JimNorCal		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484121</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JimNorCal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Mar 2020 18:29:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484121</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Brian: how did you get that link to print?
Every time I&#039;ve added a link to world o meters the blog&#039;s software silently discarded my comment!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian: how did you get that link to print?<br />
Every time I&#8217;ve added a link to world o meters the blog&#8217;s software silently discarded my comment!</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brian Morgan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484088</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian Morgan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Mar 2020 16:04:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484088</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A friend just alerted me to this website:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It contains the same time series data as mine so I&#039;ve decided to make this the first and last day that I update my site.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A friend just alerted me to this website:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/</a></p>
<p>It contains the same time series data as mine so I&#8217;ve decided to make this the first and last day that I update my site.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brian Morgan		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2020/03/12/the-question-of-asymptomatic-spread-of-covid-19-as-well-as-its-reproduction-number/#comment-2484081</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brian Morgan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Mar 2020 14:59:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.thenewneo.com/?p=93959#comment-2484081</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Here is a page I added to one of my Astrophotography websites that I will update daily:

https://snrcalc.now.sh/covid19

Each day I&#039;ll visit JHU&#039;s GitHub repository and download the time series data for USA Confirmed Cases, Deaths, and Recoveries. I&#039;ll import it into Excel and build Pivot Tables and Charts, then take a screenshot and upload it to my site.

Ideally I would import just the time series data to my website and then let you visualize it with charting software. One step at a time.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is a page I added to one of my Astrophotography websites that I will update daily:</p>
<p><a href="https://snrcalc.now.sh/covid19" rel="nofollow ugc">https://snrcalc.now.sh/covid19</a></p>
<p>Each day I&#8217;ll visit JHU&#8217;s GitHub repository and download the time series data for USA Confirmed Cases, Deaths, and Recoveries. I&#8217;ll import it into Excel and build Pivot Tables and Charts, then take a screenshot and upload it to my site.</p>
<p>Ideally I would import just the time series data to my website and then let you visualize it with charting software. One step at a time.</p>
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