https://theaviationist.com/2020/01/07/first-two-of-six-b-52-bombers-deploying-to-diego-garcia-amid-growing-tensions-with-iran/

I guess massive (>10) purges of popular generals (& colonels) (40%), attempted military coup (30%) (but Suleimani was most likely to pull one off), smaller purge (20%); leaving 10% of other. Plus some 30% chance of mass killing of protesters (>1000), which overlaps others.

The mullahs will follow Erdogan in Turkey and Maduro in Venezuela.

Will Iranian Kurds seek more autonomy, with Iraqi Kurd support?
Will Iraqi Shiites purge pro-Iran Iraqis?
Will the mullahs ask for more Chinese help? Russian help? and get help?

Lots of questions I’m keeping my eyes open for.

Some stupid anti-American provocation, allowing Trump enough to send some more bombs against Iranian targets? (20% in the next 3 months, overlapping others).

I see it as very unlikely Trump sending American soldiers into Iran (1%; until AFTER some regime change).

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Richard Goldberg, @rich_goldberg:

*** #Iran must not be allowed to have its nuclear cake and eat its sunsets too. That is the phrase you’ll hear me use over and over, and it is the reason the snapback of UNSCR 2231 needs to happen as soon as possible. Let me explain in the context of today’s announcement by the E3. [1] Following the US decision to impose maximum pressure by ending oil sanctions exceptions, #Iran launched multiple lines of effort to push back on US pressure to gain sanctions relief by trying to influence American and European politics without triggering a war. [2] The one we focus on the most right now is non-attributable violent attacks like limpet mines in the Gulf, the cruise missile attack on Saudi and the more recent activity in Iraq that prompted the kinetic response from @realDonaldTrump to restore deterrence, which he largely has. [3] The other is the nuclear front. Slowly breaching every limit of the #IranDeal #JCPOA to drive the Europeans crazy, give @brhodes a talking point for 2020, pressure @realDonaldTrump to relieve sanctions pressure and – in their own mind – gain some bargaining chips ahead of talks. [4] That #Iran is able to breach its JCPOA nuclear limits – enriching uranium above 3.67%, increasing its low enriched uranium stockpile, testing advanced centrifuges, restarting enrichment at Fordow & increasing its heavy water stockpile – tells us how horrible the JCPOA was. [5] Leaving #Iran with turnkey nuclear capabilities ready to emerge at any moment to threaten international peace and security was a fatal mistake of the JCPOA. The sunsets were pouring lemon juice on an open cut, as if the deal couldn’t have gotten worse but did. [6] Maximum pressure backed by a credible military deterrent remains the only way to force this regime to permanently dismantle all its enrichment & reprocessing related capabilities. You can’t fix this deal by extending sunsets. #Iran has a master sunset clause: any time it wants. [7] And so the question has been, what more can we do while #Iran slowly breaches its nuclear limits to gradually reset its breakout timeline to a pre-JCPOA level ahead of talks, but notably not to far enough to prompt a US or Israeli military attack on its nuclear facilities? [8] Answer: Snapback all UN restrictions and sanctions, ending UNSCR 2231 and restoring all prior UN resolutions instead. That means no enrichment allowed; no ballistic missile testing allowed; no sunsets allowed; arms embargo remains indefinitely beyond October. [9] UNSCR 2231 says that if Iran is in significant non-performance of its JCPOA limits, any original JCPOA participant State can trigger this SnapBack and end the sunsets. The US retains this right at the UN. The E3 obviously does too. The E3 today has taken the first step to do so. [10] Why did the E3 wait since June 2019 to start a process to push #Iran back inside its nuclear commitments or else end its precious sunsets? Weakness, appeasement, personal investments in JCPOA and an initial belief that #Iran would outlast Trump. They were wrong and look feckless. [11] But here we are. The E3 triggering the deal’s dispute mechanism, which should move to the Security Council for a final 30-day clock without delay. No waiting; no delays; no kicking the can. #Iran will play games; but if just one of the E3 wants to end the game, it can do so. [12] The JCPOA echo chamber, like Iran itself, is freaking out. They know this is the beginning of the end of the worst deal in history. They know the sunsets are soon going away. They know the UK is going to #Brexit & could see this through quickly. So they’re downplaying. [13] But make no mistake: Iran should never ever be allowed to have its nuclear cake and eat its sunsets too. If #Iran wants to enrich uranium as it has, it should see its precious sunsets go away. No lifting of the arms embargo this October for such a dangerous regime. END [14] ***

That was in response to this tweet by laurence norman, @laurnorman : “It’s now official. E3 put out a statement confirming triggering dispute mechanism in #IranDeal.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1217052134727913472

Sooner is better.