That launch might be the result of a failure to communicate the presence of “normal” civilian traffic, but there are other possibilities. The students had been exposed to the West and thus were dangerous to the state. The Iranian/Canadians were “traitors” who ran away from their homeland. In a certain sense, the passengers were not worth too much to the state. There probably were more Iranians killed during the last demonstrations. It was Trump’s fault! The Iranians probably didn’t expect the international out-cry and news coverage.

After all, the IRGC-Quds were apparently selected for loyalty and obedience not intelligence. Both air traffic control and air defense require some decent level of intelligence. That shoot-down probably didn’t need anything except a withheld phone call. A hyper excited missile commander did the rest. That person did his duty and would get time off until the next news cycle. Officially, “Oops.”

But the Iranian government must know that their guardians are nothing but murderers of civilians in Iran, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, and that the great leaders could join “Mani” in the fire at any time. Boom!

I’m still of the opinion the there is a power struggle in Iran.
The IRGC may have been too provocative for some elements in power.
Soleimani may have been delivered to us as part of that struggle.

So, yep, Neo, I think you are correct when you say: “People can make very stupid errors when poorly trained, frightened, and under great pressure.”

https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/01/opinion/iran-keeps-concocting-fake-news-on-downed-jet/

That information makes it seem pretty unlikely that this was a mistake. I suppose it’s possible that the killing of Solemani was so unexpected that the chain of command was seriously broken. The new commander said something recently about how their units are oh-so empowered they can do whatever they want. In light of this shootdown and what we have learned so far, that sounds like a cover story meant to support the accidental shooting narrative.

I can see the Russians delivering crummy stripped-down air-defense systems to Iran, but it sounds like the fact that the missile hit the plane means that the radar was working, and that the plane had been targeted. Maybe they thought it was a different plane, but that is a difficult error, too….

As they say in Maine, “hard sayin’, not knowin’…”

I’ve read conflicting reports on whether the plane actually made a turn. At this point, I don’t think it did. See this:

Contradictions and miscues complicated Iran’s message even as it took responsibility for the disaster. Iran’s military, in its initial admission early Saturday, said the flight’s crew had taken a sharp, unexpected turn that brought it near a sensitive military base — an assertion that was immediately disputed by the Ukrainians.

In this case, I’d trust the Ukrainians over the Iranians.

And then the Iranian commander – who sounds as though he wishes he were dead, and who probably will be dead soon, said this:

Hours later, an Iranian commander who accepted full responsibility for the disaster agreed that the Ukrainians were right.

“The plane was flying in its normal direction without any error and everybody was doing their job correctly,” said the commander, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who leads the airspace unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard — a powerful, hard-line military force. “If there was a mistake, it was made by one of our members.”

Well, I’m not a Democrat, but as I already explained in this post I believe at this point they’re telling the truth, although far from the whole truth. To believe otherwise one must come up with an alternative explanation that makes sense, and so far none of them make sense.

People can make very stupid errors when poorly trained, frightened, and under great pressure.