Comments on: Israeli election today

By: Art Deco

Art Deco — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:07:33 +0000

We are in the midst of one such cycle but they are less deadly in this country than in Israel.

? The right-of-center parties won a clear majority in the Knesset. There’s been a lot of churn in Israel’s party system the last twenty years, but the most notable change has been that the Labor Party has been replaced by somewhat evanescent social-liberal lists as Likud’s principal adversary. The same has happened in a number of East European countries, like Poland. Another change is that there has been a slow rebalancing of support among the most alienated voters, with Meretz losing out to the Arab parties. A third is that the Arab parties are a more variegated crew than was once the case.

By: Mike K

Mike K — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 13:27:53 +0000

Electorates sometimes go through cycles where the young have no memory of why the conservatives are in power. Then we have a shift left to the “more moderate” party followed by chaos like that of the Palestinian bombings or the New York City crime waves. Reaction sets in and sanity returns until the next generation has forgotten. We are in the midst of one such cycle but they are less deadly in this country than in Israel.

By: Art Deco

Art Deco — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 12:33:11 +0000

As of now, 90% of the ballots have been tabulated. No shifts.

By: Art Deco

Art Deco — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 12:03:04 +0000

As of now, 63% of the ballots counted. If the results hold, a center-left coalition is not an option, nor would a secularist minority government suffered by the Arab parties (something that’s never been attempted before). The right bloc and the religious parties are either going to have to sink the differences they couldn’t last spring or Likud and Blue & White are going to have to set up a grand coalition, something that’s been done before (1969-73, 1984-88).

One thing this election confirms is that the Labor Party is now of such a dimension that it is a peer to it’s old junior partner, Meretz (which itself has seen better days). Having destroyed the Labor Party’s brand over a period of 12 years, Ehud Barak is seeking to return to the Knesset as the leader of a sect granted a place on the Meretz list.

By: Edward

Edward — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:54:42 +0000

I pray for Israel’s sake that Netanyahu wins and can form a coalition government.

But while awaiting the verdict of the people, I heartily recommend this 12 min youtube clip of the Impeachment Follies. It will gladden your day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=382&v=CwKBypbqz4c

Do not be drinking anything, because you will snort it out your nose.

By: huxley

huxley — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:52:33 +0000

Tom Grey: Thanks for some explanation on the election.

I’m just not up-to-speed on Israeli politics. I root for Netanyahu and Likud in general, but beyond that I have little idea of what the stakes are and why.
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This is a very complicated case, Maude. You know, a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-you’s.

–The Dude (Jeff Bridges), “The Big Lebowski”

By: Tom Grey

Tom Grey — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:30:25 +0000

try again: 3.25% * 120 = 3.9 (2:30 am, time for bed)

By: Tom Grey

Tom Grey — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:27:43 +0000

I’ll believe in Israeli “national unity” when I see it. That’s sort of like a Tory + Labour gov’t in Britain, where each of those party’s main selling point is how terrible the other party is.

Not sure what happens if no gov’t can form.

“Bibi fatigue” is likely a very real issue, plus some scandals where he is less innocent than Trump of infractions, but Bibi-haters are elites ready to smear him.

Wiki says the current threshold is 3.25% for a party to get into the Knesset, so often there are 10 parties involved.

The Arab minority in Israel will be the third highest. Last exit poll showed 32 for Gantz, 31 for Bibi, 14 for the Arabs (Joint List), and 9 for Liberman’s party, with 5 others (total 9) getting at least 5 seats.

3.25% * 120 = 3.95 seats, I’d guess 4 seats in the Knesset is the minimum a party can get, tho it might be 5.

The coalition haggling, and uncertainty about next elections, seems to make parliamentary systems both more unstable, and more “democratic”, in getting what single issue groups want more. Usually special gov’t help in just one crucially important area.

The US unofficial two party system, with regular, somewhat frequent elections, seems better. The UK customary discussions are better than (the little) US Congress that I’ve heard.

By: sdferr

sdferr — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:04:21 +0000

Here’s a link to actual counted results. Very early, very few ballots as I post this, like 6% ish. But the link contains an updateable graph that will change over time, so useful that way, maybe.

https://m.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Israel-elections-results-based-on-counted-ballots-12-am-602045

By: sdferr

sdferr — Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:58:06 +0000

That’s right neo, only exit polls so far.