I’ll defer to your points re ease of taking out fixed positions. Still worry that quantity has a quality all of its own. It’s not inconceivable that NK has an order of magnitude more tubes individually dug in than can be neutralised in (say) 24 hours.

Not a great fan of Koreans of any ilk having nukes — wonderful people though many of them are, they *do* have a tendency toward (shall we say) shrill emotionalism. But if NK is going to have them, then it’s a no-brainer for ROK to do likewise and then of course the Japanese need to wake up from their post-1945 emasculated slumbers and nuke up pronto.

It’s a pity, the genie is out and partying, but at least ROK and Japan are relatively sane state actors. Also a bit of neighbourhood proliferation is just what John Chinaman needs to refocus his energies on colonising Africa instead of betting against the Thucydides House.

BTW, Kim has ONLY demonstrated IRBM capability so far.

He’s also working fanatically on solid fuel rockets — and those suitable for ballistic missile submarines.

I hear tell that Seoul is requesting permission to build atomic submarines and to upgrade its own ballistic missiles — for greater throw weight.

I’d figure that these missiles figure into Seoul’s counter battery fire scheme.

Smart bombs, smart thermo-barric bombs mean that fixed position heavy artillery is toast.

I have no doubt that many NORK artillery tubes are dug in like the Guns of Navarone… which means they are largely known.

BTW, M198 and M777 howitzers have spectacular ranges — especially with trick smart shells.

Counter battery fire is now such a fine art that the US Army assumes that one must shoot and scoot. You just can’t stay put until enemy long range fires have been suppressed.

French’s scenario has the NORK armies crossing the DMZ in a surge.

It can’t be pulled off. South Korea has trick obstacles that will drop across all roads — and minefields aplenty.

GB said it well: Kim’s game plan is to erect an atomic shield — and then — finally — shove south to Pusan. With atomics in hand, he figures it will be surely a walk-over… Beijing applauding from the bleachers.

Mostly as a side effect of being the US authoritarian party. There are benefits to being a dictator, one of which is nobody dares question you when you kill a bunch of children to take down the terrorists hiding behind them.

Or, more often, blames it on the US libertarian party.

The idea that the Executive Branch is helpless before the other 2 branches, is why Americans failed to understand the US Constitution.

That’s not how it works. And citizens should have known that a long time ago.

streiff makes a few questionable assertions but for the sake of discussion, let’s say he’s right. Doesn’t matter. What matters is what people believe. And what people believe is that a resumption of the Korean War would be BAD. That at least hundreds of thousands would die. That’s BAD.

The reason what people believe is definitive is because it affects what they’ll consider and ultimately, what they’ll do.

Kim isn’t going to attack Seoul and invade UNTIL he has nuclear ICBM capability. That’s his deterrence against US involvement. Rightly or wrongly, the Norks think they can take S. Korea mano a mano. That belief coupled with their certainty that once they have nuclear ICBM capability it will effectively deter US intervention is what is driving their actions.

Supposedly the NK Artillery aimed at Seoul is dug in to mountainsides.

It’s one thing to flense an Iraqi Brigade in the open dessert with MLRS bomblets, fuel air bombs, whatever other nasties are available. It’s totally another thing to disable artillery tubes in rocky terrain natural fortifications. Not saying it cannot be done, but it’s apples to oranges.

Also, Norks don’t need to use radio for arty command and control… Well-buried shielded twisted pair Ca. 1960 will do quite nicely. We’re talking fixed positions, remember. And targeting is mostly pre-laid. The Norks are mostly not aiming to hit particular spots… just ball park stuff.

I’ve no doubt they can be sorted in fairly short order… Won’t necessarily be business as usual in Gangnam during and after though.

1) NORK mechanised units are CERTAIN to suffer amazing mechanical breakdowns. Easy to build, easy to break is a Soviet design philosophy.

2) Chatter across NORK command networks is CERTAIN to be spotted.

We are talking about a nation that essentially shuts down at night to save power.

Such a blackout means that Kim can’t move his armies at night — not really… battalions, yes… armies, no.

3) The ROK army is ALWAYS paranoid about penetrations. By now, it’s very hard for Kim to find troopers BIG enough to ‘pass’ as ROK troops.

( Stature is a BIG thing culturally for Koreans, BTW. They pride themselves for being taller than Japanese and Chinese folks.

This is such a Big deal that when the negotiations occurred, the US HAD to use especially tall officers.

Ridgway was never photographed. )

4) ROK positions on the DMZ are always on a hair trigger — as in ready for counter-battery fire.

Most of that fire will come from MLRS systems. Such rockets don’t strike individual artillery tubes. They take out multiple football fields of this or that — in the blink of an eye.

In 1991 Iraqi troops only had to see ONE barrage — before everyone — officers included — dropped everything and ran like rabbits. Entire artillery brigades dissolved in seconds.

In contrast, the MLRS can take counter battery fire. It shoots and scoots. It’s built like a TANK.

The ROK has a LOT of MLRS batteries. These rockets also out range all but the heaviest artillery.

They are so effective that the US Army retired all of its long range counter battery artillery tubes.

5) The NORK armies can’t afford to use radio. Kim does not have a smart weapons inventory remotely like the South — or the US.

But, without radio, Kims crews can’t co-ordinate nothing.

http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2017/08/09/north-korea-level-seoul/

But, you may already know the answers, so never mind.