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	Comments on: Border rumblings with Russia	</title>
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	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: Richard Aubrey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2161345</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Aubrey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 21:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2161345</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[GB.  If the Brits&#039; going to war for/with France is the reference to honor, you&#039;re late.  The war had already started by then.
Everything is predictable after it happens.
But, according to Keegan, Moltke told the Kaiser it couldn&#039;t be done-- a logistical question of supreme importance (details upon request)--and the Kaiser said, &quot;Your uncle would have given me a different answer,&quot; so Moltke penciled in 150k guys where he knew he couldn&#039;t put them and went ahead.
Italy wanted terrain suitable for travel posters?
For decades we thought the German generals knew they were part of a gigantic bluff in the Rhineland and would certainly lose if the French resisted.  But Hitler prevailed. IOW, the peace party won.  Then, there were credible reports that the Generals had had more than enough of LCPL Schickelgruber and were actively planning to dump him if the French showed up,  Even if this isn&#039;t true, they knew the facts on the ground showed they lose.  Except the guys who&#039;d beaten them the first time stayed home.
My point, I suggest, is that decrying the likelihood of a particular war by means of rational calculations is fantasy.
&quot;demand&quot;war in entertainment is used in the retail sense  Craig T. Williams in Call to Glory and Cliff Potts in For Love and Honor--about a peacetime arty unit.  For the love....their last episode had them on a field exercise with lightning coming at them from all directions.
Then there was Top Gun.
But my point was...all the wars one found in military techno thrillers were perfectly rational and...didn&#039;t happen.  &quot;The Lieutenant&quot; with Gary Lockwood and Robert Vaughan.  A peacetime Marine lieutenant in a series whose last episode was in Viet Nam.  Didn&#039;t need the fake stuff any longer.  The real thing was on at 6:30.
This was not &quot;Victory at Sea&quot;, possibly the most hours of any series on television year after year, local station and national, and whose soundtrack was a best-selling album.  Something the nation shared.
So my point stands; predicting the military future by rational and logical calculations considering facts on the ground misses the irrational, which, as I say, is the important part.
Junior.  You speak of the progress of the wars once started.  You make a good case for how the Allies won, or what they missed in the progress, or what they anticipated.  But they won and the guys who started it should have known that would happen.  In fact, you make a very good case for it.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GB.  If the Brits&#8217; going to war for/with France is the reference to honor, you&#8217;re late.  The war had already started by then.<br />
Everything is predictable after it happens.<br />
But, according to Keegan, Moltke told the Kaiser it couldn&#8217;t be done&#8211; a logistical question of supreme importance (details upon request)&#8211;and the Kaiser said, &#8220;Your uncle would have given me a different answer,&#8221; so Moltke penciled in 150k guys where he knew he couldn&#8217;t put them and went ahead.<br />
Italy wanted terrain suitable for travel posters?<br />
For decades we thought the German generals knew they were part of a gigantic bluff in the Rhineland and would certainly lose if the French resisted.  But Hitler prevailed. IOW, the peace party won.  Then, there were credible reports that the Generals had had more than enough of LCPL Schickelgruber and were actively planning to dump him if the French showed up,  Even if this isn&#8217;t true, they knew the facts on the ground showed they lose.  Except the guys who&#8217;d beaten them the first time stayed home.<br />
My point, I suggest, is that decrying the likelihood of a particular war by means of rational calculations is fantasy.<br />
&#8220;demand&#8221;war in entertainment is used in the retail sense  Craig T. Williams in Call to Glory and Cliff Potts in For Love and Honor&#8211;about a peacetime arty unit.  For the love&#8230;.their last episode had them on a field exercise with lightning coming at them from all directions.<br />
Then there was Top Gun.<br />
But my point was&#8230;all the wars one found in military techno thrillers were perfectly rational and&#8230;didn&#8217;t happen.  &#8220;The Lieutenant&#8221; with Gary Lockwood and Robert Vaughan.  A peacetime Marine lieutenant in a series whose last episode was in Viet Nam.  Didn&#8217;t need the fake stuff any longer.  The real thing was on at 6:30.<br />
This was not &#8220;Victory at Sea&#8221;, possibly the most hours of any series on television year after year, local station and national, and whose soundtrack was a best-selling album.  Something the nation shared.<br />
So my point stands; predicting the military future by rational and logical calculations considering facts on the ground misses the irrational, which, as I say, is the important part.<br />
Junior.  You speak of the progress of the wars once started.  You make a good case for how the Allies won, or what they missed in the progress, or what they anticipated.  But they won and the guys who started it should have known that would happen.  In fact, you make a very good case for it.</p>
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		<title>
		By: junior		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2160986</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[junior]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 15:51:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2160986</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Odds and ends...

Don&#039;t forget that Obama announced the cancellation of Bush&#039;s missile defense system while in Poland, on the anniversary of the 1939 invasion of Poland by the USSR.

The big problem for Britain and France wasn&#039;t the Blitzkrieg tactics per se.  It was that the strategic leadership assumed that Germany would try the same thing that it did in 1914, and ended up getting half the army cut off and surrounded when the Germans smuggled most of their tanks through the Ardennes instead.

By the start of the invasion of France, Great Britain building fighters faster than Germany was.  I don&#039;t know about other equipment, but I wouldn&#039;t be surprised if that was the case for things like tanks as well.  Britain&#039;s big problem wasn&#039;t industrial capacity.  It was manpower.  As for the projected invasion of Great Britain, I doubt that the Germans could have pulled it off even without Barbarossa.  They never would have been able to get the Royal Navy weak enough.  And Stalin had plans of his own to go to war with Germany, so Hitler was still on a timetable.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Odds and ends&#8230;</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t forget that Obama announced the cancellation of Bush&#8217;s missile defense system while in Poland, on the anniversary of the 1939 invasion of Poland by the USSR.</p>
<p>The big problem for Britain and France wasn&#8217;t the Blitzkrieg tactics per se.  It was that the strategic leadership assumed that Germany would try the same thing that it did in 1914, and ended up getting half the army cut off and surrounded when the Germans smuggled most of their tanks through the Ardennes instead.</p>
<p>By the start of the invasion of France, Great Britain building fighters faster than Germany was.  I don&#8217;t know about other equipment, but I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if that was the case for things like tanks as well.  Britain&#8217;s big problem wasn&#8217;t industrial capacity.  It was manpower.  As for the projected invasion of Great Britain, I doubt that the Germans could have pulled it off even without Barbarossa.  They never would have been able to get the Royal Navy weak enough.  And Stalin had plans of his own to go to war with Germany, so Hitler was still on a timetable.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Geoffrey Britain		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2160857</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoffrey Britain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 14:30:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2160857</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Richard A,

I can&#039;t agree that the start of WWI was due to &quot;a bunch of idiots playing stupid games in an air of idiocy&quot;. Nor that the various nations pulled into the War were incoherently hoping for something undefinable. Back then concepts like honor meant something and they had the quaint notion that treaties must be honored even if it meant a war no one wanted. 

Nor can I agree with &quot;the generals planned to can Hitler if the French resisted…&quot; At that point, Hitler&#039;s power was at its zenith and no rational German general would have imagined that canning Hitler was possible. 

As for &quot;After a certain period without war, the US public demands it in popular entertainment.&quot; 

Escapist entertainment and wishing for the real thing are of course, entirely separate things. 

Public approval of and economic support for entertainment is not a &#039;demand&#039;, instead might subconscious/subliminal reflection upon recent, significantly impactful events through &#039;entertainment&#039; be at play?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard A,</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t agree that the start of WWI was due to &#8220;a bunch of idiots playing stupid games in an air of idiocy&#8221;. Nor that the various nations pulled into the War were incoherently hoping for something undefinable. Back then concepts like honor meant something and they had the quaint notion that treaties must be honored even if it meant a war no one wanted. </p>
<p>Nor can I agree with &#8220;the generals planned to can Hitler if the French resisted…&#8221; At that point, Hitler&#8217;s power was at its zenith and no rational German general would have imagined that canning Hitler was possible. </p>
<p>As for &#8220;After a certain period without war, the US public demands it in popular entertainment.&#8221; </p>
<p>Escapist entertainment and wishing for the real thing are of course, entirely separate things. </p>
<p>Public approval of and economic support for entertainment is not a &#8216;demand&#8217;, instead might subconscious/subliminal reflection upon recent, significantly impactful events through &#8216;entertainment&#8217; be at play?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Richard Aubrey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2160535</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Aubrey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 11:24:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2160535</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[WRT WW I. The sources of Balkan troubles were a bunch of idiots playing stupid games in an air of idiocy.  Of course, it was predictable, given that there was so much nonsense going on.  But there were any number of points at which it could have been delayed and possibly precluded by somebody of moderate intelligence in a position to affect things.  The A?H decision to take Serbia to the woodshed required them to invade Russia why?  And the German help in Russia required the Germans  to invade France why?  And what did the Italians think to gain by going to war for the Tyrol or whatever the hell it was that caused them to attack the A/H?
And WTF did the guys who started it get out of the thing?
Hitler and his staff knew that they couldn&#039;t prevail in the Rhineland. It was a gigantic bluff.  But the generals planned to can Hitler if the French resisted....
Not a digression:  After a certain period without war, the US public demands it in popular entertainment.  After Viet Nam and before Desert Storm was a sub-genre called the military techno-thriller, begun by Sir John Hackett&#039;s &quot;August 1985&quot;.  Sold big time.  One of the interesting items was how the authors got their guns and shooters into a war, big or small. It was always reasonable, always plausible and you&#039;d almost wonder what was wrong that we weren&#039;t having a war.  But, this is the point, we weren&#039;t.
The lesson is that if predicting or explaining wars or rumors of war requires rational calculation or excludes irrationality, you&#039;re wrong.

Here&#039;s a tell:  Hitler talked of secret weapons and the blond Aryan superman. The Japanese talked of the Code of Bushido.  Mussolini spoke of the Brits,, &quot;once a race of magnificent adventurers, now a line of tired rich men&#039;s sons.&quot;  (Read his Wodehouse, I bet).
When they talk like that, they&#039;re trying to occlude potential combat power which they cannot see themselves overcoming with combat power.  But they went ahead because....no rational answer.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WRT WW I. The sources of Balkan troubles were a bunch of idiots playing stupid games in an air of idiocy.  Of course, it was predictable, given that there was so much nonsense going on.  But there were any number of points at which it could have been delayed and possibly precluded by somebody of moderate intelligence in a position to affect things.  The A?H decision to take Serbia to the woodshed required them to invade Russia why?  And the German help in Russia required the Germans  to invade France why?  And what did the Italians think to gain by going to war for the Tyrol or whatever the hell it was that caused them to attack the A/H?<br />
And WTF did the guys who started it get out of the thing?<br />
Hitler and his staff knew that they couldn&#8217;t prevail in the Rhineland. It was a gigantic bluff.  But the generals planned to can Hitler if the French resisted&#8230;.<br />
Not a digression:  After a certain period without war, the US public demands it in popular entertainment.  After Viet Nam and before Desert Storm was a sub-genre called the military techno-thriller, begun by Sir John Hackett&#8217;s &#8220;August 1985&#8221;.  Sold big time.  One of the interesting items was how the authors got their guns and shooters into a war, big or small. It was always reasonable, always plausible and you&#8217;d almost wonder what was wrong that we weren&#8217;t having a war.  But, this is the point, we weren&#8217;t.<br />
The lesson is that if predicting or explaining wars or rumors of war requires rational calculation or excludes irrationality, you&#8217;re wrong.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a tell:  Hitler talked of secret weapons and the blond Aryan superman. The Japanese talked of the Code of Bushido.  Mussolini spoke of the Brits,, &#8220;once a race of magnificent adventurers, now a line of tired rich men&#8217;s sons.&#8221;  (Read his Wodehouse, I bet).<br />
When they talk like that, they&#8217;re trying to occlude potential combat power which they cannot see themselves overcoming with combat power.  But they went ahead because&#8230;.no rational answer.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Sergey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2160470</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sergey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 10:28:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2160470</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I do not think Putin has any moral convictions at all, but he certainly has political convictions of Soviet era in foreign policy, that is, he sees West as adversary and using all openings to weaken it and ignite internal squabbles in Europe whenever it is possible. He also believes (rightfully) that Europe is decadent and morally decaying, and is inclined for civilization suicide. It is hard to dispute it, really. But actual reason for his traditionalist internal policy is that the core of his electoral base are people older 60 years, and this constituency is very social conservative and traditionalist. He can not afford to alienate it, so he throws red meat to it whenever possible, because he has no money to appease them economically. His bluff about Russian imperial ambitions is also mostly addressed to domestic audience, since Russia has no actual resources for military adventures, and he knows this.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I do not think Putin has any moral convictions at all, but he certainly has political convictions of Soviet era in foreign policy, that is, he sees West as adversary and using all openings to weaken it and ignite internal squabbles in Europe whenever it is possible. He also believes (rightfully) that Europe is decadent and morally decaying, and is inclined for civilization suicide. It is hard to dispute it, really. But actual reason for his traditionalist internal policy is that the core of his electoral base are people older 60 years, and this constituency is very social conservative and traditionalist. He can not afford to alienate it, so he throws red meat to it whenever possible, because he has no money to appease them economically. His bluff about Russian imperial ambitions is also mostly addressed to domestic audience, since Russia has no actual resources for military adventures, and he knows this.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Sergey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2160425</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sergey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 09:56:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2160425</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Russia now is so unstable and unpredictable that no measure to contain and deter her is superfluous. While I do not expect any sudden moves from Kremlin before presidential election in March 2018, after this all bets are off.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Russia now is so unstable and unpredictable that no measure to contain and deter her is superfluous. While I do not expect any sudden moves from Kremlin before presidential election in March 2018, after this all bets are off.</p>
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		<title>
		By: The Other Chuck		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2160141</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The Other Chuck]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 07:18:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2160141</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[How will Trump respond to Putin? His strategist, Steve Bannon, had this to say in a 2014 interview:

Question: &lt;i&gt;Obviously, before the European elections the two parties &lt;/i&gt;[UKIP in England &#038; National Front in France] &lt;i&gt;had a clear link to Putin. If one of the representatives of the dangers of capitalism is the state involvement in capitalism, so, I see there, also Marine Le Pen campaigning in Moscow with Putin, and also UKIP strongly defending Russian positions in geopolitical terms.&lt;/i&gt;

Harnwell: &lt;i&gt;These two parties have both been cultivating President Putin.&lt;/i&gt;

Bannon: &lt;i&gt;I think it’s a little bit more complicated. When Vladimir Putin, when you really look at some of the underpinnings of some of his beliefs today, a lot of those come from what I call Eurasianism; he’s got an adviser who harkens back to Julius Evola and different writers of the early 20th century who are really the supporters of what’s called the traditionalist movement, which really eventually metastasized into Italian fascism. A lot of people that are traditionalists are attracted to that.
One of the reasons is that they believe that at least Putin is standing up for traditional institutions, and he’s trying to do it in a form of nationalism – and I think that people, particularly in certain countries...

...we the Judeo-Christian West really have to look at what he’s talking about as far as traditionalism goes – particularly the sense of where it supports the underpinnings of nationalism – and I happen to think that the individual sovereignty of a country is a good thing and a strong thing. I think strong countries and strong nationalist movements in countries make strong neighbors, and that is really the building blocks that built Western Europe and the United States, and I think it’s what can see us forward.

You know, Putin’s been quite an interesting character. He’s also very, very, very intelligent. I can see this in the United States where he’s playing very strongly to social conservatives about his message about more traditional values, so I think it’s something that we have to be very much on guard of. Because at the end of the day, I think that Putin and his cronies are really a kleptocracy, that are really an imperialist power that want to expand. However, I really believe that in this current environment, where you’re facing a potential new caliphate that is very aggressive that is really a situation – I’m not saying we can put it on a back burner – but I think we have to deal with first things first.&lt;/i&gt;

Bannon seems to have no illusions about Putin, but is more worried about radical Islam - &lt;i&gt;first things first.&lt;/i&gt;  He also is willing to overlook a nascent Fascist movement in Europe (see Hungary) if it advances nationalism, as he was willing to tolerate white supremacists and cultivate the alt-right here.

Does this explain why Trump and his sycophants are trying so hard to dismiss Russian involvement in our election? 

Gingrich compares Trump to FDR. Is he forgetting Yalta?

(The interview is at buzzfeed.com but cannot be linked.)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How will Trump respond to Putin? His strategist, Steve Bannon, had this to say in a 2014 interview:</p>
<p>Question: <i>Obviously, before the European elections the two parties </i>[UKIP in England &amp; National Front in France] <i>had a clear link to Putin. If one of the representatives of the dangers of capitalism is the state involvement in capitalism, so, I see there, also Marine Le Pen campaigning in Moscow with Putin, and also UKIP strongly defending Russian positions in geopolitical terms.</i></p>
<p>Harnwell: <i>These two parties have both been cultivating President Putin.</i></p>
<p>Bannon: <i>I think it’s a little bit more complicated. When Vladimir Putin, when you really look at some of the underpinnings of some of his beliefs today, a lot of those come from what I call Eurasianism; he’s got an adviser who harkens back to Julius Evola and different writers of the early 20th century who are really the supporters of what’s called the traditionalist movement, which really eventually metastasized into Italian fascism. A lot of people that are traditionalists are attracted to that.<br />
One of the reasons is that they believe that at least Putin is standing up for traditional institutions, and he’s trying to do it in a form of nationalism – and I think that people, particularly in certain countries&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8230;we the Judeo-Christian West really have to look at what he’s talking about as far as traditionalism goes – particularly the sense of where it supports the underpinnings of nationalism – and I happen to think that the individual sovereignty of a country is a good thing and a strong thing. I think strong countries and strong nationalist movements in countries make strong neighbors, and that is really the building blocks that built Western Europe and the United States, and I think it’s what can see us forward.</p>
<p>You know, Putin’s been quite an interesting character. He’s also very, very, very intelligent. I can see this in the United States where he’s playing very strongly to social conservatives about his message about more traditional values, so I think it’s something that we have to be very much on guard of. Because at the end of the day, I think that Putin and his cronies are really a kleptocracy, that are really an imperialist power that want to expand. However, I really believe that in this current environment, where you’re facing a potential new caliphate that is very aggressive that is really a situation – I’m not saying we can put it on a back burner – but I think we have to deal with first things first.</i></p>
<p>Bannon seems to have no illusions about Putin, but is more worried about radical Islam &#8211; <i>first things first.</i>  He also is willing to overlook a nascent Fascist movement in Europe (see Hungary) if it advances nationalism, as he was willing to tolerate white supremacists and cultivate the alt-right here.</p>
<p>Does this explain why Trump and his sycophants are trying so hard to dismiss Russian involvement in our election? </p>
<p>Gingrich compares Trump to FDR. Is he forgetting Yalta?</p>
<p>(The interview is at buzzfeed.com but cannot be linked.)</p>
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		<title>
		By: Geoffrey Britain		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2159979</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoffrey Britain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 05:27:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2159979</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[parker,

In 9/39 France and England had the upper hand militarily &lt;i&gt;on paper&lt;/i&gt;... England did declare war on Germany with the invasion of Poland. But actual events proved that neither the French nor the English were capable of resisting the German Blitzkrieg nor contesting the air superiority of the Luftwaffe. Dunkirk was the English desperately trying to save the English forces on the continent from being destroyed. The French folded like a paper tent and English forces on the continent were utterly routed. 

Had Germany not attacked Russia and Pearl Harbor not happened... England would eventually have fallen.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>parker,</p>
<p>In 9/39 France and England had the upper hand militarily <i>on paper</i>&#8230; England did declare war on Germany with the invasion of Poland. But actual events proved that neither the French nor the English were capable of resisting the German Blitzkrieg nor contesting the air superiority of the Luftwaffe. Dunkirk was the English desperately trying to save the English forces on the continent from being destroyed. The French folded like a paper tent and English forces on the continent were utterly routed. </p>
<p>Had Germany not attacked Russia and Pearl Harbor not happened&#8230; England would eventually have fallen.</p>
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		<title>
		By: parker		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2159888</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[parker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 04:47:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2159888</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yankee,

Yes it was a good idea to allow the Baltics and Poland into NATO, Ukraine no for obvious reasons. Of course if one wishes to make Moscow great again, it was a very bad idea.

1980s policy is calling us back to the future. Get a grip with 2 hands. There will be turbulence.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yankee,</p>
<p>Yes it was a good idea to allow the Baltics and Poland into NATO, Ukraine no for obvious reasons. Of course if one wishes to make Moscow great again, it was a very bad idea.</p>
<p>1980s policy is calling us back to the future. Get a grip with 2 hands. There will be turbulence.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Yankee		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2017/01/04/border-rumblings-with-russia/#comment-2159806</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yankee]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 03:58:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65666#comment-2159806</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Estonia has 1.3 million people, with 69% of them Estonian, and 25% as Russian.  Latvia has just under 2 million, with 62% as Latvian, 26% Russian, and 3.4% Belarusian.  These are majorities, but not large ones, so there are issues in both countries with the language and citizenship status of the ethnic Russians (all going back to how those states view things prior to their incorporation into the USSR, and the resulting in-migration of outside ethnic groups).

With that in mind, was it a good idea in the first place to admit those countries into NATO in 2004?  Did anyone in the Bush-43 administration foresee what might happen later on?  Could Russia stir up some resentments to serve its own interests, or are the Baltic Russians happier to be in a more prosperous country that is closer to the rest of Europe?

As for Lithuania, they are in better shape, with 2.85 million people, a comfortable majority of them as 87% Lithuanian, rounded out with 5.6% Poles and 4.8% Russians, among others.  Given time, and a decent economy, all three Baltic states could grow closer to the rest of Europe, with Russia having less to offer as long as the price of oil stays relatively low.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Estonia has 1.3 million people, with 69% of them Estonian, and 25% as Russian.  Latvia has just under 2 million, with 62% as Latvian, 26% Russian, and 3.4% Belarusian.  These are majorities, but not large ones, so there are issues in both countries with the language and citizenship status of the ethnic Russians (all going back to how those states view things prior to their incorporation into the USSR, and the resulting in-migration of outside ethnic groups).</p>
<p>With that in mind, was it a good idea in the first place to admit those countries into NATO in 2004?  Did anyone in the Bush-43 administration foresee what might happen later on?  Could Russia stir up some resentments to serve its own interests, or are the Baltic Russians happier to be in a more prosperous country that is closer to the rest of Europe?</p>
<p>As for Lithuania, they are in better shape, with 2.85 million people, a comfortable majority of them as 87% Lithuanian, rounded out with 5.6% Poles and 4.8% Russians, among others.  Given time, and a decent economy, all three Baltic states could grow closer to the rest of Europe, with Russia having less to offer as long as the price of oil stays relatively low.</p>
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