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	Comments on: The sort of error that&#8217;s made all the time	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2076295</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Dec 2016 17:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2076295</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yancey Ward:

When I wrote that I &quot;knew&quot; she was going to lose, I didn&#039;t literally mean I &lt;i&gt;knew&lt;/i&gt; it.  Of course I don&#039;t see the future.  However, I am a supporter of hers, and I was &lt;i&gt;extremely&lt;/i&gt; concerned that she would lose, and had a &lt;i&gt;very&lt;/i&gt; strong hunch (amounting to a near-certainty in my mind) that she was going to lose.

Of course I might have been wrong.  But I felt in my gut, very strongly, that she would lose.

The polls were always close, however, with a lot of back-and-forth between the two.  My perception was a gut feeling that was simply my own.  

And she did lose, although closely.  My point is that my strong strong feeling that she would lose, and my strong perception of her vulnerability, was present long before Trump got into the race.

And no, there is no reason to conclude that Trump helped her or that support of him would have helped her at all, since &lt;i&gt;he lost New Hampshire&lt;/i&gt; by almost four times as many votes as she did.  

If you actually &lt;a href=&quot;http://www2.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_ayotte_vs_hassan-3862.html#polls&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;look at the polls&lt;/a&gt; for NH there is no support for your theory.  The race was close the whole way, with the lead changing hands many times.  But the article I was quoting in the post made it seem as though Ayotte lost because of her lack of support of Trump, and there is absolutely no support for that idea, and the available evidence is that it is false.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yancey Ward:</p>
<p>When I wrote that I &#8220;knew&#8221; she was going to lose, I didn&#8217;t literally mean I <i>knew</i> it.  Of course I don&#8217;t see the future.  However, I am a supporter of hers, and I was <i>extremely</i> concerned that she would lose, and had a <i>very</i> strong hunch (amounting to a near-certainty in my mind) that she was going to lose.</p>
<p>Of course I might have been wrong.  But I felt in my gut, very strongly, that she would lose.</p>
<p>The polls were always close, however, with a lot of back-and-forth between the two.  My perception was a gut feeling that was simply my own.  </p>
<p>And she did lose, although closely.  My point is that my strong strong feeling that she would lose, and my strong perception of her vulnerability, was present long before Trump got into the race.</p>
<p>And no, there is no reason to conclude that Trump helped her or that support of him would have helped her at all, since <i>he lost New Hampshire</i> by almost four times as many votes as she did.  </p>
<p>If you actually <a href="http://www2.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_ayotte_vs_hassan-3862.html#polls" rel="nofollow">look at the polls</a> for NH there is no support for your theory.  The race was close the whole way, with the lead changing hands many times.  But the article I was quoting in the post made it seem as though Ayotte lost because of her lack of support of Trump, and there is absolutely no support for that idea, and the available evidence is that it is false.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Yancey Ward		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2074036</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yancey Ward]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Dec 2016 07:52:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2074036</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Well, Neo, you certainty about her losing prior to the election looks misguided &lt;i&gt;at best&lt;/i&gt; considering she nearly won.  Had she done this well while Trump was getting wiped out in the state, then one can imagine that her repudiation of Trump &lt;i&gt;might&lt;/i&gt; helped her come close, but the fact that she only managed to lose by about 2200 votes less than Trump did out of 700K cast is pretty conclusive evidence that she killed her own campaign by explicitly running against Trump.

Let me put it another way- if you really were that sure she was toast prior to the election, doesn&#039;t the logical post-election theory have to be that despite her deep and unique problems, Trump nearly dragged (or, since he also lost the state, nearly pushed) her across the finish line?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, Neo, you certainty about her losing prior to the election looks misguided <i>at best</i> considering she nearly won.  Had she done this well while Trump was getting wiped out in the state, then one can imagine that her repudiation of Trump <i>might</i> helped her come close, but the fact that she only managed to lose by about 2200 votes less than Trump did out of 700K cast is pretty conclusive evidence that she killed her own campaign by explicitly running against Trump.</p>
<p>Let me put it another way- if you really were that sure she was toast prior to the election, doesn&#8217;t the logical post-election theory have to be that despite her deep and unique problems, Trump nearly dragged (or, since he also lost the state, nearly pushed) her across the finish line?</p>
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		By: kevino		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2071873</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kevino]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 22:21:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2071873</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[RE: &quot;If only Ayotte had “thrown her lot” in with the winning Trump wing rather than the McCain wing, perhaps she wouldn’t now be unemployed. The Trump wave “swept her away.”&quot;
In my view, it didn&#039;t matter that Sen Ayotte supported Trump or not: she was dead to me long before Trump became the GOP nominee. During the last few years, I&#039;ve had to write Ayotte to take her positions apart. I hit my pain threshold at her support for &quot;immigration reform&quot; or Sen. McCaskill&#039;s campus rape bill. At that point I explicitly said that I would not support her again.

In the end, I was convinced that I should vote for her, and I did. But I didn&#039;t give her any money, donate time, or talk to voters. I would have preferred not to vote for either candidate, but Ayotte was the lesser of two evils. She did the minimum to get my support, so I gave her the minimum support in return. Many libertarians and conservatives aren&#039;t going to work for RINOs.

The DNC machine was willing to go all-out to support Gov. Hassan, as a rubber-stamp for President Hillary Clinton&#039;s agenda. [Oops.] Even then it was an excruciatingly negative campaign. Hassan was a barely passable governor, so Hassan didn&#039;t stand on her record and attacked Ayotte constantly. I had numerous volunteers at my door canvassing for Hassan -- none for Ayotte.

Q: What&#039;s the difference between a DNC parrot and a RINO?
A: Not enough to care about.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RE: &#8220;If only Ayotte had “thrown her lot” in with the winning Trump wing rather than the McCain wing, perhaps she wouldn’t now be unemployed. The Trump wave “swept her away.”&#8221;<br />
In my view, it didn&#8217;t matter that Sen Ayotte supported Trump or not: she was dead to me long before Trump became the GOP nominee. During the last few years, I&#8217;ve had to write Ayotte to take her positions apart. I hit my pain threshold at her support for &#8220;immigration reform&#8221; or Sen. McCaskill&#8217;s campus rape bill. At that point I explicitly said that I would not support her again.</p>
<p>In the end, I was convinced that I should vote for her, and I did. But I didn&#8217;t give her any money, donate time, or talk to voters. I would have preferred not to vote for either candidate, but Ayotte was the lesser of two evils. She did the minimum to get my support, so I gave her the minimum support in return. Many libertarians and conservatives aren&#8217;t going to work for RINOs.</p>
<p>The DNC machine was willing to go all-out to support Gov. Hassan, as a rubber-stamp for President Hillary Clinton&#8217;s agenda. [Oops.] Even then it was an excruciatingly negative campaign. Hassan was a barely passable governor, so Hassan didn&#8217;t stand on her record and attacked Ayotte constantly. I had numerous volunteers at my door canvassing for Hassan &#8212; none for Ayotte.</p>
<p>Q: What&#8217;s the difference between a DNC parrot and a RINO?<br />
A: Not enough to care about.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2071204</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 19:40:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2071204</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yancey Ward:

You are wrong about Ayotte.

I knew she was going to lose before Trump even declared himself as a candidate, that&#039;s how much propaganda there was against her, and how weakly she was supported by the voters of NH.  In New England, she was known to be very very vulnerable, and that&#039;s why the Democrats targeted her seat as a possible and even probable upset long before Trump ever entered the race. 

Plus, as I already wrote, her opponent Hassan was very well-liked there.

A perfect storm against Ayotte, none of it about Trump at all.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yancey Ward:</p>
<p>You are wrong about Ayotte.</p>
<p>I knew she was going to lose before Trump even declared himself as a candidate, that&#8217;s how much propaganda there was against her, and how weakly she was supported by the voters of NH.  In New England, she was known to be very very vulnerable, and that&#8217;s why the Democrats targeted her seat as a possible and even probable upset long before Trump ever entered the race. </p>
<p>Plus, as I already wrote, her opponent Hassan was very well-liked there.</p>
<p>A perfect storm against Ayotte, none of it about Trump at all.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Yancey Ward		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2071114</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Yancey Ward]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 19:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2071114</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;Incumbent&lt;/i&gt; senatorial candidates &lt;i&gt;almost always&lt;/i&gt; greatly outperform their party&#039;s presidential candidate candidate in the same election cycle.  Ayotte &lt;i&gt;should have won&lt;/i&gt; the election with Trump coming that close to winning the state.  She underperformed expectations, and I think the simplest explanation for why she failed when Toomey and Johnson won is that she was vocally anti-Trump.  Indeed, her opposition to Trump probably cost him the state and her the Senate seat.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Incumbent</i> senatorial candidates <i>almost always</i> greatly outperform their party&#8217;s presidential candidate candidate in the same election cycle.  Ayotte <i>should have won</i> the election with Trump coming that close to winning the state.  She underperformed expectations, and I think the simplest explanation for why she failed when Toomey and Johnson won is that she was vocally anti-Trump.  Indeed, her opposition to Trump probably cost him the state and her the Senate seat.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2068608</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 03:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2068608</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;&quot;Was it done through carelessness or was it purposeful?&quot;&lt;/em&gt; - Neo

IDK.  PJ Media have been a rather strong trump supporters.  And they (among many) have been pushing the meme that this was a &quot;landslide&quot; for trump.

Yes, he did win, but neither his margins in the swing states (e.g. in NH) nor his ecv results (lowest quartile of win margins since 1948) indicate a landslide.  Neither did he have &quot;coattails&quot; where many Senators who won outperformed trump wrt their win margins (13 of 22 GOP wins, with several more merely approximately tied trump&#039;s margins).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Fair and square win, but no &quot;landslide&quot;.  

With GOP retaining Congress, it is an opportunity.
.

This election clinton was clearly the loser because the percentage of eligible voters of previous elections didn&#039;t show up in far greater numbers her than those who didn&#039;t show up for trump.

Re: clinton&#039;s loss, a scathing assessment by a left leaning(?) blog...
https://theweek.com/articles/664828/hillary-clinton-blew-most-winnable-election-modern-american-history-fault

trump swung a thin margin of rust belt dem voters his way in key swing states, and that put him over the top.
.

Looking ahead to the next POTUS cycle, can he keep that thin margin, and, if so, will that bring back those now alienated GOP voters, or antagonize them further?

And, will it keep the dems from bringing back the rest of their eligible voters from prior years (since trump out dem&#039;d the dems), with a fresh face in 2020?

We&#039;ll see.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;Was it done through carelessness or was it purposeful?&#8221;</em> &#8211; Neo</p>
<p>IDK.  PJ Media have been a rather strong trump supporters.  And they (among many) have been pushing the meme that this was a &#8220;landslide&#8221; for trump.</p>
<p>Yes, he did win, but neither his margins in the swing states (e.g. in NH) nor his ecv results (lowest quartile of win margins since 1948) indicate a landslide.  Neither did he have &#8220;coattails&#8221; where many Senators who won outperformed trump wrt their win margins (13 of 22 GOP wins, with several more merely approximately tied trump&#8217;s margins).<br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016" rel="nofollow ugc">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016</a></p>
<p>Fair and square win, but no &#8220;landslide&#8221;.  </p>
<p>With GOP retaining Congress, it is an opportunity.<br />
.</p>
<p>This election clinton was clearly the loser because the percentage of eligible voters of previous elections didn&#8217;t show up in far greater numbers her than those who didn&#8217;t show up for trump.</p>
<p>Re: clinton&#8217;s loss, a scathing assessment by a left leaning(?) blog&#8230;<br />
<a href="https://theweek.com/articles/664828/hillary-clinton-blew-most-winnable-election-modern-american-history-fault" rel="nofollow ugc">https://theweek.com/articles/664828/hillary-clinton-blew-most-winnable-election-modern-american-history-fault</a></p>
<p>trump swung a thin margin of rust belt dem voters his way in key swing states, and that put him over the top.<br />
.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to the next POTUS cycle, can he keep that thin margin, and, if so, will that bring back those now alienated GOP voters, or antagonize them further?</p>
<p>And, will it keep the dems from bringing back the rest of their eligible voters from prior years (since trump out dem&#8217;d the dems), with a fresh face in 2020?</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll see.</p>
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		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2068570</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 03:05:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2068570</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Molly NH:

Well, that&#039;s disturbing.  My guess is that the people at your voting place were more lax than at many places. In the end, rules like that are only as good as the people who enforce them.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Molly NH:</p>
<p>Well, that&#8217;s disturbing.  My guess is that the people at your voting place were more lax than at many places. In the end, rules like that are only as good as the people who enforce them.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Geoffrey Britain		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2068545</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoffrey Britain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 02:55:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2068545</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neo&#039;s example demonstrates how easily swayed we all are by incomplete and erroneous information. Some people are open to factual and reasoned persuasion that forces reevaluation. Many are not. Ideologues the least of all.

Jim, 

The republican leadership are not fools. They simply favor the status quo. Clearly voter fraud is against their long term interests. Whenever people appear to act against their own interests, I look for what I term the &#039;secondary gain or benefit&#039;. Invariably there is for them a payoff that they deem of greater value. In this case, &#039;upsetting the applecart&#039; is deemed to be &quot;counter-productive&quot;. 

They&#039;ve simply persuaded themselves that what&#039;s best for them is what&#039;s best for the country.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo&#8217;s example demonstrates how easily swayed we all are by incomplete and erroneous information. Some people are open to factual and reasoned persuasion that forces reevaluation. Many are not. Ideologues the least of all.</p>
<p>Jim, </p>
<p>The republican leadership are not fools. They simply favor the status quo. Clearly voter fraud is against their long term interests. Whenever people appear to act against their own interests, I look for what I term the &#8216;secondary gain or benefit&#8217;. Invariably there is for them a payoff that they deem of greater value. In this case, &#8216;upsetting the applecart&#8217; is deemed to be &#8220;counter-productive&#8221;. </p>
<p>They&#8217;ve simply persuaded themselves that what&#8217;s best for them is what&#8217;s best for the country.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Molly NH		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2068405</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly NH]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 02:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2068405</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neo they don t follow that totally at those sites you linked to.  I misplaced my drivers license, though I am on the voter rolls.  They told me to do an affidavit which was not witnessed by a notary I took that back to the ballot distributor &#038; he gave me a ballot &#038; I had to tell him to draw the line through my name, I voted on a regular ballot that was not sequestered from the other ballots pending verification, I was able to put it through the optical scanner no questions asked.
If they permit same day registration what is to stop a student from Minnesotta to say he is domiciled in NH, heck Bidens daughter voted in 2012 saying she planned to live here as she later caught a flight back to DC.  Sounds like the internet info they post dosen t jibe with what happens.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo they don t follow that totally at those sites you linked to.  I misplaced my drivers license, though I am on the voter rolls.  They told me to do an affidavit which was not witnessed by a notary I took that back to the ballot distributor &amp; he gave me a ballot &amp; I had to tell him to draw the line through my name, I voted on a regular ballot that was not sequestered from the other ballots pending verification, I was able to put it through the optical scanner no questions asked.<br />
If they permit same day registration what is to stop a student from Minnesotta to say he is domiciled in NH, heck Bidens daughter voted in 2012 saying she planned to live here as she later caught a flight back to DC.  Sounds like the internet info they post dosen t jibe with what happens.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Eric		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/12/14/the-sort-of-error-thats-made-all-the-time/#comment-2068344</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2016 01:34:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=65023#comment-2068344</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Trump team has brought Democratic playbook to the GOP.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Trump team has brought Democratic playbook to the GOP.</p>
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