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	Comments on: And then there&#8217;s the stock market	</title>
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		<title>
		By: Ymarsakar		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1888058</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ymarsakar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 18:21:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1888058</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;b&gt;And, thus, if trump lives up to his “promise”, not much will be solved under him.&lt;/b&gt;

The Alt Right, will blame that on Republican or Democrat obstruction to their new God Emperor.

They may be open to disappoint from their God Emperor, but they will first blame everybody around him first.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>And, thus, if trump lives up to his “promise”, not much will be solved under him.</b></p>
<p>The Alt Right, will blame that on Republican or Democrat obstruction to their new God Emperor.</p>
<p>They may be open to disappoint from their God Emperor, but they will first blame everybody around him first.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1887864</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 17:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1887864</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;&quot;No one wants to touch the entitlement third rail. &quot;&lt;/em&gt;

And, thus, if trump lives up to his &quot;promise&quot;, not much will be solved under him.  

There are various ways to deal with it to mitigate its impact.

You are admitting defeat before even beginning to attempt to do anything.

The G-march continues.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;No one wants to touch the entitlement third rail. &#8220;</em></p>
<p>And, thus, if trump lives up to his &#8220;promise&#8221;, not much will be solved under him.  </p>
<p>There are various ways to deal with it to mitigate its impact.</p>
<p>You are admitting defeat before even beginning to attempt to do anything.</p>
<p>The G-march continues.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Frog		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1887762</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Frog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 17:08:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1887762</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Big Maq:
Doubt away. No one wants to touch the entitlement third rail. The sheeple, conned since FDR, won&#039;t hear of it. Ryan got the VP slot with Romney on his plan (so-called) to slow the growth of the Federal deficit monster. Slow it, feed it less. Not an answer.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Big Maq:<br />
Doubt away. No one wants to touch the entitlement third rail. The sheeple, conned since FDR, won&#8217;t hear of it. Ryan got the VP slot with Romney on his plan (so-called) to slow the growth of the Federal deficit monster. Slow it, feed it less. Not an answer.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1887196</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:40:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1887196</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;&quot;I agree we are heading for a large correction, 20-40%, and that no one will blame Obama, unless it happens pretty quickly. I think in terms of a 2-year delay&quot;&lt;/em&gt; - Assistant VI

Who knows, really, the timing.  

I very much believed the housing market couldn&#039;t keep rising like it did, but it kept going.  

I very much believed since 2011 that the stock market couldn&#039;t keep rising so much without the fundamentals behind it to support the rise, yet, here we are.
.

Now, I look at Japan and see 200%+ of GDP in debt, having crossed 100% around 1996.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp

And the US did live through a 100%+ debt level and survived.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

Evidently, screwed up economic positions can sustain themselves for a very long time.
.

What is most troubling is really the unfunded liabilities that permeate the federal, state, and local governments.  They are economically unsustainable (i.e. impossible to tax enough to pay for them, nor borrow enough - and afford the interest payments even if it could be borrowed).  This says the estimate is $127T in today&#039;s dollars (today&#039;s debt is $19T - for comparison).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/17/you-think-the-deficit-is-bad-federal-unfunded-liabilities-exceed-127-trillion/#7fa55a2710d3

Peak baby boomer pulling retirement, medicare, medicaid, social security, etc happens in about 10 years.  

If we don&#039;t do something about it all before then (and it doesn&#039;t look like trump is inclined to do so), expect trouble then.

And with massive infrastructure spending and other big ticket items trump promises, it will only be worse.

People think they reversed or held back the G-march with trump, well, I very much doubt it, unless the GOP in Congress revert to their traditional economic policies and bring trump along.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;I agree we are heading for a large correction, 20-40%, and that no one will blame Obama, unless it happens pretty quickly. I think in terms of a 2-year delay&#8221;</em> &#8211; Assistant VI</p>
<p>Who knows, really, the timing.  </p>
<p>I very much believed the housing market couldn&#8217;t keep rising like it did, but it kept going.  </p>
<p>I very much believed since 2011 that the stock market couldn&#8217;t keep rising so much without the fundamentals behind it to support the rise, yet, here we are.<br />
.</p>
<p>Now, I look at Japan and see 200%+ of GDP in debt, having crossed 100% around 1996.<br />
<a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp</a></p>
<p>And the US did live through a 100%+ debt level and survived.<br />
<a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp</a></p>
<p>Evidently, screwed up economic positions can sustain themselves for a very long time.<br />
.</p>
<p>What is most troubling is really the unfunded liabilities that permeate the federal, state, and local governments.  They are economically unsustainable (i.e. impossible to tax enough to pay for them, nor borrow enough &#8211; and afford the interest payments even if it could be borrowed).  This says the estimate is $127T in today&#8217;s dollars (today&#8217;s debt is $19T &#8211; for comparison).<br />
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/17/you-think-the-deficit-is-bad-federal-unfunded-liabilities-exceed-127-trillion/#7fa55a2710d3" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/17/you-think-the-deficit-is-bad-federal-unfunded-liabilities-exceed-127-trillion/#7fa55a2710d3</a></p>
<p>Peak baby boomer pulling retirement, medicare, medicaid, social security, etc happens in about 10 years.  </p>
<p>If we don&#8217;t do something about it all before then (and it doesn&#8217;t look like trump is inclined to do so), expect trouble then.</p>
<p>And with massive infrastructure spending and other big ticket items trump promises, it will only be worse.</p>
<p>People think they reversed or held back the G-march with trump, well, I very much doubt it, unless the GOP in Congress revert to their traditional economic policies and bring trump along.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Ymarsakar		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1887013</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ymarsakar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:34:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1887013</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;b&gt;I worry he puts Ivanka in a cabinet role.&lt;/b&gt;

He has no choice to, for who in DC would be personally loyal to Trum other than his family clan?

If conservatives want Trum to be able to output even 5 of that Gettsburg address promise thing, Trum needs loyalists, household troops. Normal political methods won&#039;t get them even 10 on the list. Reagan had to expend enormous political capital to work within the DC good old boy network, to get even a few things done. Immigration reform wasn&#039;t one of them.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>I worry he puts Ivanka in a cabinet role.</b></p>
<p>He has no choice to, for who in DC would be personally loyal to Trum other than his family clan?</p>
<p>If conservatives want Trum to be able to output even 5 of that Gettsburg address promise thing, Trum needs loyalists, household troops. Normal political methods won&#8217;t get them even 10 on the list. Reagan had to expend enormous political capital to work within the DC good old boy network, to get even a few things done. Immigration reform wasn&#8217;t one of them.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Assistant Village Idiot		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1887006</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Assistant Village Idiot]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:33:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1887006</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I agree we are heading for a large correction, 20-40%, and that no one will blame Obama, unless it happens pretty quickly.  I think in terms of a 2-year delay - It will not be fully the economy belonging to Trump and this congress until Nov 2018.  Plus, I consider the congress to be 2x asw powerful as the president in these things, but we like the symboliswm of one guy.  Thirdly, it&#039;s still largely factors unrelated to the federal government that drive the economy.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree we are heading for a large correction, 20-40%, and that no one will blame Obama, unless it happens pretty quickly.  I think in terms of a 2-year delay &#8211; It will not be fully the economy belonging to Trump and this congress until Nov 2018.  Plus, I consider the congress to be 2x asw powerful as the president in these things, but we like the symboliswm of one guy.  Thirdly, it&#8217;s still largely factors unrelated to the federal government that drive the economy.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1886962</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 13:15:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1886962</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;&quot;Objective facts support the assertion that Wall Street has done exceptionally well under Obama. While Main Street has been devastated. That is factual and labeling it leftist propaganda is a low blow, even for you.&quot;&lt;/em&gt; - GB

Hold it.

&quot;Fair Share&quot; - very leftist terminology, that presupposes a fixed pie to divvy up.

Who does the divvying?  Oh, I have my guy in DC so now I get mine!  

Recollections of &quot;obama phones&quot;, anyone?
.

Note that pelosi is eager to work with trump on the new massive infrastructure spending bill.

Yep, more massive debt spending will even things out.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;Objective facts support the assertion that Wall Street has done exceptionally well under Obama. While Main Street has been devastated. That is factual and labeling it leftist propaganda is a low blow, even for you.&#8221;</em> &#8211; GB</p>
<p>Hold it.</p>
<p>&#8220;Fair Share&#8221; &#8211; very leftist terminology, that presupposes a fixed pie to divvy up.</p>
<p>Who does the divvying?  Oh, I have my guy in DC so now I get mine!  </p>
<p>Recollections of &#8220;obama phones&#8221;, anyone?<br />
.</p>
<p>Note that pelosi is eager to work with trump on the new massive infrastructure spending bill.</p>
<p>Yep, more massive debt spending will even things out.</p>
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		<title>
		By: parker		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1884977</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[parker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 03:33:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1884977</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Frog,

IMO the stock market has been pumped up by QE, rock bottom interest rates, and for many stocks P/E is not encouraging. As someone who has been in the market for a long time, as may be true of you, and I tend to get a bit nervous when the equities market keeps rising and rising with only a few tiny corrections. I like moderate corrections as they lessen the possibility of a major correction. 

We lost 12% in the 2008 drop where the average for most investors was in the range of 20+%.  We sold some in very early 2008 without a loss and rode out the crash. Nothing against a rising market per se, provided it does  not rise too high too fast. Nothing rises forever.

I judge the health of an economy by what happens in the commodity markets and by where the Baltic Dry Index is trending as the two are linked. Those are my benchmarks and they tell me the global economy is not doing well. The last two years have hit commodities hard, and the BDI is stuck in low gear. Commodities  make the world go round and the BDI measures how fast it rotates.

YMMV]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Frog,</p>
<p>IMO the stock market has been pumped up by QE, rock bottom interest rates, and for many stocks P/E is not encouraging. As someone who has been in the market for a long time, as may be true of you, and I tend to get a bit nervous when the equities market keeps rising and rising with only a few tiny corrections. I like moderate corrections as they lessen the possibility of a major correction. </p>
<p>We lost 12% in the 2008 drop where the average for most investors was in the range of 20+%.  We sold some in very early 2008 without a loss and rode out the crash. Nothing against a rising market per se, provided it does  not rise too high too fast. Nothing rises forever.</p>
<p>I judge the health of an economy by what happens in the commodity markets and by where the Baltic Dry Index is trending as the two are linked. Those are my benchmarks and they tell me the global economy is not doing well. The last two years have hit commodities hard, and the BDI is stuck in low gear. Commodities  make the world go round and the BDI measures how fast it rotates.</p>
<p>YMMV</p>
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		<title>
		By: Geoffrey Britain		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1884490</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Geoffrey Britain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 01:30:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1884490</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Objective facts support the assertion that Wall Street has done exceptionally well under Obama. While Main Street has been devastated. That is factual and labeling it leftist propaganda is a low blow, even for you.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Objective facts support the assertion that Wall Street has done exceptionally well under Obama. While Main Street has been devastated. That is factual and labeling it leftist propaganda is a low blow, even for you.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/11/09/and-then-theres-the-stock-market/#comment-1884473</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 01:24:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=64196#comment-1884473</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@GB - depends on who you mean by &quot;Wall Street&quot; that is getting &quot;depressed&quot;.

If you are talking about how the stock market took a dive initially, following international markets, but rebounded.

My guess is that trump&#039;s &quot;unexpected&quot; win represents relative uncertainty, particularly overseas.  

trump&#039;s relatively &quot;gracious&quot; speech last night, followed by clinton&#039;s &quot;gracious&quot; concession speech helped much to smooth those initial concerns out.

&lt;em&gt;&quot;Wall Street’s gluttony may suffer, while Main Street may get its fair share.&quot;&lt;/em&gt;

Spoken like a true leftist.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@GB &#8211; depends on who you mean by &#8220;Wall Street&#8221; that is getting &#8220;depressed&#8221;.</p>
<p>If you are talking about how the stock market took a dive initially, following international markets, but rebounded.</p>
<p>My guess is that trump&#8217;s &#8220;unexpected&#8221; win represents relative uncertainty, particularly overseas.  </p>
<p>trump&#8217;s relatively &#8220;gracious&#8221; speech last night, followed by clinton&#8217;s &#8220;gracious&#8221; concession speech helped much to smooth those initial concerns out.</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Wall Street’s gluttony may suffer, while Main Street may get its fair share.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Spoken like a true leftist.</p>
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