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	Comments on: How can you tell when a campaign is ahead (and more on polls and Shy Tories)?	</title>
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	<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/</link>
	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1619456</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2016 16:59:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1619456</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@Neo - another way to know a campaign is behind...

The surrogates they use are not well known individuals that come with some credibility...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trumps-surrogate-circus/2016/08/30/eba13250-6edf-11e6-8365-b19e428a975e_story.html?utm_term=.fe764fc9e18a]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Neo &#8211; another way to know a campaign is behind&#8230;</p>
<p>The surrogates they use are not well known individuals that come with some credibility&#8230;<br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trumps-surrogate-circus/2016/08/30/eba13250-6edf-11e6-8365-b19e428a975e_story.html?utm_term=.fe764fc9e18a" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trumps-surrogate-circus/2016/08/30/eba13250-6edf-11e6-8365-b19e428a975e_story.html?utm_term=.fe764fc9e18a</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: OM		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1611907</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[OM]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2016 01:57:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1611907</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;lie back and think&quot; of the Supreme Court, or 

&quot;lie back and think&quot; at least it&#039;s not Hillary, or

just say &quot;La La La La La&quot; and hope for the best.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;lie back and think&#8221; of the Supreme Court, or </p>
<p>&#8220;lie back and think&#8221; at least it&#8217;s not Hillary, or</p>
<p>just say &#8220;La La La La La&#8221; and hope for the best.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1610524</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 18:44:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1610524</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Humorous Ad re: alternative to clinton and trump...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLAh3pui-CI]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Humorous Ad re: alternative to clinton and trump&#8230;<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLAh3pui-CI" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLAh3pui-CI</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1610421</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 18:07:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1610421</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;Get over yourself&quot; in this context is about trump&#039;s &quot;loud NY&quot; style.  It glosses over all the other legitimate concerns as if it were only about trump&#039;s style.

If one cannot see any possible danger from any of trump&#039;s statements if fulfilled, then all that remains is style.

Of course, if that was all there was, then, yes, several more of us would be on the trump train too.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Get over yourself&#8221; in this context is about trump&#8217;s &#8220;loud NY&#8221; style.  It glosses over all the other legitimate concerns as if it were only about trump&#8217;s style.</p>
<p>If one cannot see any possible danger from any of trump&#8217;s statements if fulfilled, then all that remains is style.</p>
<p>Of course, if that was all there was, then, yes, several more of us would be on the trump train too.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1610393</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 17:59:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1610393</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;&quot;There are lots of idle threats being thrown around by Trumpkins now about exacting revenge on this group or that group, but if Trump loses big their influence will diminish.

The fence-sitters are the ones who need to learn a lesson from this, and they just might because they’re at least open to self-reflection, unlike most Trumpkins.&quot;&lt;/em&gt; - Matt SE

Right.  A blowout is required to diminish the legitimacy of the alt-r / populist / trumpism brand of / approach to politics.  It has to be seen as a losing proposition.  That would make the job much easier for conservatism to rebound.

That said, a blowout sends a powerful public &quot;message&quot; that clinton has a &quot;mandate&quot;.  I don&#039;t think a rejection of trump is necessarily so, but it would be certain that the Dems and the MSM would play it up as such.

I&#039;d rather there be a rejection of both with a solid Libertarian support.  

Odds for that are low as folks cannot break out of the binary paradigm, and may just find trump so scary as to vote clinton to ensure he doesn&#039;t get in.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;There are lots of idle threats being thrown around by Trumpkins now about exacting revenge on this group or that group, but if Trump loses big their influence will diminish.</p>
<p>The fence-sitters are the ones who need to learn a lesson from this, and they just might because they’re at least open to self-reflection, unlike most Trumpkins.&#8221;</em> &#8211; Matt SE</p>
<p>Right.  A blowout is required to diminish the legitimacy of the alt-r / populist / trumpism brand of / approach to politics.  It has to be seen as a losing proposition.  That would make the job much easier for conservatism to rebound.</p>
<p>That said, a blowout sends a powerful public &#8220;message&#8221; that clinton has a &#8220;mandate&#8221;.  I don&#8217;t think a rejection of trump is necessarily so, but it would be certain that the Dems and the MSM would play it up as such.</p>
<p>I&#8217;d rather there be a rejection of both with a solid Libertarian support.  </p>
<p>Odds for that are low as folks cannot break out of the binary paradigm, and may just find trump so scary as to vote clinton to ensure he doesn&#8217;t get in.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Big Maq		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1610354</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Big Maq]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 17:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1610354</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[To add to Matt SE&#039;s comment...

It goes beyond just being optimistic about trump.  Nobody has a basis to know exactly what trump will do.  Nobody.

Just last week we saw a huge reversal of trump&#039;s headline policy on illegal immigrants.  

If he is so mutable on that, what will he be for all else he says?

Since we are left to guess, we have to go with his history, which is largely leftist.  

Then we have to add caution for the most extreme positions he has stated, as they must be a possibility as well.  

Then we have to make some judgement about his temperament and ethics - this campaign has demonstrated a volatility in his reactions to even small things, and a propensity to be self focused vs grounded in some governing set of principles.

To conclude that there is NOT &quot;a single thing trump has said that — if implemented — would be disaster&quot; is well beyond simple optimism.

There is a huge downside risk with trump to the country, as well as a threat to conservatism&#039;s political representation (extremely important if we think that conservative principles / policies are needed to resolve the problems we face).  

There is little upside potential to compensate for all that downside risk, as trump looks to be as much a big government, executive branch power grab, as clinton, and perhaps more so.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To add to Matt SE&#8217;s comment&#8230;</p>
<p>It goes beyond just being optimistic about trump.  Nobody has a basis to know exactly what trump will do.  Nobody.</p>
<p>Just last week we saw a huge reversal of trump&#8217;s headline policy on illegal immigrants.  </p>
<p>If he is so mutable on that, what will he be for all else he says?</p>
<p>Since we are left to guess, we have to go with his history, which is largely leftist.  </p>
<p>Then we have to add caution for the most extreme positions he has stated, as they must be a possibility as well.  </p>
<p>Then we have to make some judgement about his temperament and ethics &#8211; this campaign has demonstrated a volatility in his reactions to even small things, and a propensity to be self focused vs grounded in some governing set of principles.</p>
<p>To conclude that there is NOT &#8220;a single thing trump has said that — if implemented — would be disaster&#8221; is well beyond simple optimism.</p>
<p>There is a huge downside risk with trump to the country, as well as a threat to conservatism&#8217;s political representation (extremely important if we think that conservative principles / policies are needed to resolve the problems we face).  </p>
<p>There is little upside potential to compensate for all that downside risk, as trump looks to be as much a big government, executive branch power grab, as clinton, and perhaps more so.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Richard Aubrey		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1609424</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Aubrey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 04:11:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1609424</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Hmmm.
Well, trying again:
WRT the Bradley Effect.  Years ago, a writer in NR said he&#039;d called a Brit election for the Conservatives despite polls.
Conservatives had been slagged, mocked, demonized by journos, celebrities, writers, comedians. So when the nice middle class person calls you--in that nice middle class accent--you don&#039;t want to admit you&#039;re an evil, subhuman conservative.  So you lie.
In the US, today it can be much worse.  The IRS, by law, knows your charitable inclinations.  Just recently, they agreed to review years-old Tea Party applications.
Chik Fil A&#039;s owner donated to trad family causes.  Gays and their supporters tried to start a boycott which was offset by a buycott.  Part of the reason was that two city officials, one in Boston and the other in Chicago, had threatened CFA&#039;s businesses.
Two Trump rallies were attacked by protestors while police stood by, having been ordered to stand down.
Gibson Guitars was shut down for six months over nothing, while their competition, Marvin Guitars went on.  Both had (not) broken the same law.  But the Gibson CEO donated Republican, the Marvin guy was smarter and donated Democrat.
Remember Travelgate?
Does anybody believe that anything is anonymous?  IMO, the reason to be a shy Tory wrt polling is more urgent than in Britain where it&#039;s only scorn.
I suggest the phenomenon covers a considerably larger proportion of voters than we&#039;d imagine if the fear were only of being lumped with nutcases.  Whether that will cover the current differences is hard to say.
I&#039;d guess it&#039;s stronger in blue states where the extra votes probably wouldn&#039;t matter.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmmm.<br />
Well, trying again:<br />
WRT the Bradley Effect.  Years ago, a writer in NR said he&#8217;d called a Brit election for the Conservatives despite polls.<br />
Conservatives had been slagged, mocked, demonized by journos, celebrities, writers, comedians. So when the nice middle class person calls you&#8211;in that nice middle class accent&#8211;you don&#8217;t want to admit you&#8217;re an evil, subhuman conservative.  So you lie.<br />
In the US, today it can be much worse.  The IRS, by law, knows your charitable inclinations.  Just recently, they agreed to review years-old Tea Party applications.<br />
Chik Fil A&#8217;s owner donated to trad family causes.  Gays and their supporters tried to start a boycott which was offset by a buycott.  Part of the reason was that two city officials, one in Boston and the other in Chicago, had threatened CFA&#8217;s businesses.<br />
Two Trump rallies were attacked by protestors while police stood by, having been ordered to stand down.<br />
Gibson Guitars was shut down for six months over nothing, while their competition, Marvin Guitars went on.  Both had (not) broken the same law.  But the Gibson CEO donated Republican, the Marvin guy was smarter and donated Democrat.<br />
Remember Travelgate?<br />
Does anybody believe that anything is anonymous?  IMO, the reason to be a shy Tory wrt polling is more urgent than in Britain where it&#8217;s only scorn.<br />
I suggest the phenomenon covers a considerably larger proportion of voters than we&#8217;d imagine if the fear were only of being lumped with nutcases.  Whether that will cover the current differences is hard to say.<br />
I&#8217;d guess it&#8217;s stronger in blue states where the extra votes probably wouldn&#8217;t matter.</p>
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		<title>
		By: OM		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1607250</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[OM]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2016 17:05:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1607250</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Bill:

The &quot;get over yourself&quot; is this election&#039;s version of &quot;lie back and think of England&quot; which in one version involves closing your eyes.

https://www.google.com/?ion=1&#038;espv=2#q=think%20of%20england]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill:</p>
<p>The &#8220;get over yourself&#8221; is this election&#8217;s version of &#8220;lie back and think of England&#8221; which in one version involves closing your eyes.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/?ion=1&#038;espv=2#q=think%20of%20england" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.google.com/?ion=1&#038;espv=2#q=think%20of%20england</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Bill		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1607241</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2016 17:02:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1607241</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Matt_SE,

Well said. That is the source of all the disagreement.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matt_SE,</p>
<p>Well said. That is the source of all the disagreement.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Matt_SE		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/08/26/how-can-you-tell-when-a-campaign-is-ahead-and-more-on-polls-and-shy-tories/#comment-1607225</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt_SE]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2016 16:56:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=62254#comment-1607225</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Cornhead Says: 

&lt;b&gt;In all sincerity I really doubt a Trump presidency would be a disaster. I can’t think of a single thing he has said that — if implemented — would be disaster.&lt;/b&gt;

This is the source of all the disagreement:
Trump supporters are far more optimistic about what Trump can accomplish, and far more pessimistic about what Hillary will do than Trump detractors.
Trump detractors see them as almost equally bad, but with the added harm of Trump destroying conservatism by association for a generation.

It&#039;s a strange kind of argument that we ought to support the candidate who&#039;s more of a threat to our worldview. That Trump *is* a threat to conservatism should be obvious, given the overt HOSTILITY the alt-right has expressed towards conservatives (and I don&#039;t just mean RINOs, either).

If it wasn&#039;t clear to you before, let it be clear now:
Constitution conservatives see Trump and Trumpism as a mortal threat to our values. There is no possible argument you can make that will induce us to vote for our own destruction.

&lt;b&gt;And with that, I think I&#039;ve changed back into the &quot;not voting for Trump&quot; camp again.&lt;/b&gt;
The rule of law will take a huge hit under Hillary, but at least conservatism will still exist and be viable as an opposition movement.
Well...as long as Trumpkins don&#039;t go on a vendetta against us (which they might).]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cornhead Says: </p>
<p><b>In all sincerity I really doubt a Trump presidency would be a disaster. I can’t think of a single thing he has said that — if implemented — would be disaster.</b></p>
<p>This is the source of all the disagreement:<br />
Trump supporters are far more optimistic about what Trump can accomplish, and far more pessimistic about what Hillary will do than Trump detractors.<br />
Trump detractors see them as almost equally bad, but with the added harm of Trump destroying conservatism by association for a generation.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a strange kind of argument that we ought to support the candidate who&#8217;s more of a threat to our worldview. That Trump *is* a threat to conservatism should be obvious, given the overt HOSTILITY the alt-right has expressed towards conservatives (and I don&#8217;t just mean RINOs, either).</p>
<p>If it wasn&#8217;t clear to you before, let it be clear now:<br />
Constitution conservatives see Trump and Trumpism as a mortal threat to our values. There is no possible argument you can make that will induce us to vote for our own destruction.</p>
<p><b>And with that, I think I&#8217;ve changed back into the &#8220;not voting for Trump&#8221; camp again.</b><br />
The rule of law will take a huge hit under Hillary, but at least conservatism will still exist and be viable as an opposition movement.<br />
Well&#8230;as long as Trumpkins don&#8217;t go on a vendetta against us (which they might).</p>
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