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	Comments on: We have some more primaries/caucuses today	</title>
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	<description>A blog about political change, among other things</description>
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		<title>
		By: parker		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-989666</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[parker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Mar 2016 05:05:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-989666</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Sheesh back at you Ann. If you can not admit that you have a visceral hatred of Cruz simply because he has eclipsed Rubio, you have a problem rooted in your desire to cling to Rubio. Rubio threw away any ambition to win a gop nomination for POTUS when he joined the Gang of 8. The base has rejected him, even his home state.

I have no hatred of Rubio, I simply think when he decided to be joined at the shoulder with Schumer Gang of 8 fiasco he poisoned any attempt he had to run for POTUS. Yes, you will bring up Cruz&#039;s poison pill amendment as not a poison pill, but you are simply wrong, and your ability to accept that is rather pathetic.  Sheesh.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sheesh back at you Ann. If you can not admit that you have a visceral hatred of Cruz simply because he has eclipsed Rubio, you have a problem rooted in your desire to cling to Rubio. Rubio threw away any ambition to win a gop nomination for POTUS when he joined the Gang of 8. The base has rejected him, even his home state.</p>
<p>I have no hatred of Rubio, I simply think when he decided to be joined at the shoulder with Schumer Gang of 8 fiasco he poisoned any attempt he had to run for POTUS. Yes, you will bring up Cruz&#8217;s poison pill amendment as not a poison pill, but you are simply wrong, and your ability to accept that is rather pathetic.  Sheesh.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Ann		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-989497</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ann]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Mar 2016 03:16:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-989497</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I wasn&#039;t lying about Cruz. He said what he said. Am I not allowed to point out some problems that will arise in the November campaign if he&#039;s the nominee? Sheesh.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wasn&#8217;t lying about Cruz. He said what he said. Am I not allowed to point out some problems that will arise in the November campaign if he&#8217;s the nominee? Sheesh.</p>
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		<title>
		By: parker		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-989398</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[parker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Mar 2016 02:11:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-989398</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Ann,

If you are still paying attention to this thread... your adoration for Rubio has gone into the fanatical abyss by virtue of your inexplicable hatred of Cruz.  I just don&#039;t get your die hard devotion and run it into the dust wrecklessness to think lying about Cruz will turn around the fortunes of your chosen one.  Rubio is toast. If you are hoping for a brokered convention, I have bad news for you, the gope will not select Rubio.

Give it a break, have glass of dry red, turn off the TV and computer, and resign yourself to voting for hrc if Cruz is the nominee.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ann,</p>
<p>If you are still paying attention to this thread&#8230; your adoration for Rubio has gone into the fanatical abyss by virtue of your inexplicable hatred of Cruz.  I just don&#8217;t get your die hard devotion and run it into the dust wrecklessness to think lying about Cruz will turn around the fortunes of your chosen one.  Rubio is toast. If you are hoping for a brokered convention, I have bad news for you, the gope will not select Rubio.</p>
<p>Give it a break, have glass of dry red, turn off the TV and computer, and resign yourself to voting for hrc if Cruz is the nominee.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Nick		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-989016</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 22:23:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-989016</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[K-E - From the article you cited:

“I knew Donald Trump’s message would resonate with blue-collar Democrats,” he said. “But once they learn about his record — besides him being anti-trade — they will change their minds in the general election. I assure you that come the general election, voters will vote our way once we tell the story of Donald Trump. The more chaos created in the Republican primary, the better Democrats will do in the general election.”

Betras, who backs Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, said it “would make me happy for Donald Trump to beat John Kasich,” the Ohio governor running for president as a Republican.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>K-E &#8211; From the article you cited:</p>
<p>“I knew Donald Trump’s message would resonate with blue-collar Democrats,” he said. “But once they learn about his record — besides him being anti-trade — they will change their minds in the general election. I assure you that come the general election, voters will vote our way once we tell the story of Donald Trump. The more chaos created in the Republican primary, the better Democrats will do in the general election.”</p>
<p>Betras, who backs Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, said it “would make me happy for Donald Trump to beat John Kasich,” the Ohio governor running for president as a Republican.</p>
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		<title>
		By: holmes		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-988939</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[holmes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 21:35:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-988939</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It doesn&#039;t matter. At least we can lose with Cruz vs. losing with Trump (or winning with Trump which may be worse.)  We&#039;ll give it the ol&#039; college try and the True Cons will go back to their Levin and Malkin books complaining that the system is rigged and we need to burn it down.  Then we&#039;ll run Rubio in 2020 after everyone has sobered up and win.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It doesn&#8217;t matter. At least we can lose with Cruz vs. losing with Trump (or winning with Trump which may be worse.)  We&#8217;ll give it the ol&#8217; college try and the True Cons will go back to their Levin and Malkin books complaining that the system is rigged and we need to burn it down.  Then we&#8217;ll run Rubio in 2020 after everyone has sobered up and win.</p>
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		<title>
		By: holmes		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-988904</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[holmes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 20:28:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-988904</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Quick, someone tell me how Cruz wins Pennsylvania?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quick, someone tell me how Cruz wins Pennsylvania?</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-988894</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 20:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-988894</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[K-E:

That &quot;recent survey&quot; you link to is two months old.  I wrote a post about it at the time, and not only is the poll now 2 months old but even at the time it was done it did NOT say what you think it said.  See &lt;a href=&quot;http://neoneocon.com/2016/01/11/more-about-trump-and-the-democrats/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;, which I wrote when the poll came out:

&lt;blockquote&gt;There are lot of things about that newer poll that give me pause, however, even more than most polls. The first is that the pollsters showed respondents a Trump ad first, and were testing the results of the ad. That means that the ad was fresh in their minds, which certainly would be likely to create a positive bias in the questions that followed. The second is that there is no way to compare Trump’s crossover voters in the polls to the number of crossover voters other GOP contenders might get. More? Less? We don’t know; because the pollsters only asked about Democratic support for Trump (because they were actually testing the ad). The third is that this was an internet and partially app-based poll; they can sometimes be quite valid or sometimes very skewed, and I haven’t seen anything about how these particular subjects were selected in this particular poll.

The fourth is that there were 916 “likely voters” in the poll. I haven’t found any word on how that broke down in terms of number of Republican vs. Democrat respondents, but let’s just say that half were Democrats (458). Twenty percent of those said they would cross over for Trump, which means that about 91 of them said that. That’s a rather small “n” on which to pin an entire theory that Democrats are going for Trump. Plus, if Trump were to run against Hillary, 14% of Republicans in the poll said they would vote for Hillary, which would be 64. So the net difference among the entire voter pool of 916 between Democrats-for-Trump and Republicans-for-Hillary would be 27.

What’s more–and this is what especially gives me pause about current measurements of the “Democrats-for-Trump” phenomenon–as I wrote a while back, in more conventional polls with a more conventional design, in a posited race against Hillary no Democratic advantage for Trump over the other candidates appears. Nor, by the way, is there an advantage for Trump with black voters, another demographic that many people say goes for Trump more than for the other Republicans.

So far, I’ve not seen any conventionally-designed polls that find an advantage for Trump with such groups. In fact, the opposite appears to be true. For example, the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/08/fox-news-poll-national-presidential-race-obama-ratings/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;very latest national poll from Fox&lt;/a&gt;, which I have already discussed here, had some details that I didn’t get into in that earlier post but which are relevant.

If you look closely at questions 22-25 in that poll, which was taken January 4-7 and involved a sample of 1006 respondents queried by telephone (cell and landline), you will see that Trump does slightly worse against Hillary among Democrats and among black voters than the other leading GOP candidates do. Take a look if you don’t believe me–and these are typical of results I’ve seen in earlier polls.

In a matchup against Hillary, Cruz gets 11% of those identifying as Democrats, whereas Hillary gets 6% of people who say they are Republicans. Rubio gets 12% of Democrats against Hillary’s 5% of Republicans, a trifle better. Bush (remember him?) gets 10% of Democrats to Hillary’s 7% of Republicans, a tiny bit worse. And Trump gets 9% of Democrats to Hillary’s 8% of Republicans, which is a bit worse, although they all cluster rather closely together and the differences are not so very significant.

Against Hillary, Cruz gets 5% of the black vote, but Rubio gets 9% of the black vote. Could be significant, I suppose. Bush gets 6% of the black vote against her. And Trump? 4% of the black vote. Again–except perhaps for Rubio–they all are very similar, but Trump does slightly worse.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

More &lt;a href=&quot;http://neoneocon.com/2015/12/17/democrats-for-trump/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt; about how polls do not support the idea of Democrats for Trump.

As for people calling in and saying they want to change their registration in Ohio, that could just as easily mean that some Democrats want to crossover and vote for Trump in order to harm the GOP, in classic open primary fashion. In other words, we have no idea whatsoever what their motivation is. It certainly does NOT seem to translate into Democratic support for Trump in the general against Hillary.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>K-E:</p>
<p>That &#8220;recent survey&#8221; you link to is two months old.  I wrote a post about it at the time, and not only is the poll now 2 months old but even at the time it was done it did NOT say what you think it said.  See <a href="http://neoneocon.com/2016/01/11/more-about-trump-and-the-democrats/" rel="nofollow">this</a>, which I wrote when the poll came out:</p>
<blockquote><p>There are lot of things about that newer poll that give me pause, however, even more than most polls. The first is that the pollsters showed respondents a Trump ad first, and were testing the results of the ad. That means that the ad was fresh in their minds, which certainly would be likely to create a positive bias in the questions that followed. The second is that there is no way to compare Trump’s crossover voters in the polls to the number of crossover voters other GOP contenders might get. More? Less? We don’t know; because the pollsters only asked about Democratic support for Trump (because they were actually testing the ad). The third is that this was an internet and partially app-based poll; they can sometimes be quite valid or sometimes very skewed, and I haven’t seen anything about how these particular subjects were selected in this particular poll.</p>
<p>The fourth is that there were 916 “likely voters” in the poll. I haven’t found any word on how that broke down in terms of number of Republican vs. Democrat respondents, but let’s just say that half were Democrats (458). Twenty percent of those said they would cross over for Trump, which means that about 91 of them said that. That’s a rather small “n” on which to pin an entire theory that Democrats are going for Trump. Plus, if Trump were to run against Hillary, 14% of Republicans in the poll said they would vote for Hillary, which would be 64. So the net difference among the entire voter pool of 916 between Democrats-for-Trump and Republicans-for-Hillary would be 27.</p>
<p>What’s more–and this is what especially gives me pause about current measurements of the “Democrats-for-Trump” phenomenon–as I wrote a while back, in more conventional polls with a more conventional design, in a posited race against Hillary no Democratic advantage for Trump over the other candidates appears. Nor, by the way, is there an advantage for Trump with black voters, another demographic that many people say goes for Trump more than for the other Republicans.</p>
<p>So far, I’ve not seen any conventionally-designed polls that find an advantage for Trump with such groups. In fact, the opposite appears to be true. For example, the <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/08/fox-news-poll-national-presidential-race-obama-ratings/" rel="nofollow">very latest national poll from Fox</a>, which I have already discussed here, had some details that I didn’t get into in that earlier post but which are relevant.</p>
<p>If you look closely at questions 22-25 in that poll, which was taken January 4-7 and involved a sample of 1006 respondents queried by telephone (cell and landline), you will see that Trump does slightly worse against Hillary among Democrats and among black voters than the other leading GOP candidates do. Take a look if you don’t believe me–and these are typical of results I’ve seen in earlier polls.</p>
<p>In a matchup against Hillary, Cruz gets 11% of those identifying as Democrats, whereas Hillary gets 6% of people who say they are Republicans. Rubio gets 12% of Democrats against Hillary’s 5% of Republicans, a trifle better. Bush (remember him?) gets 10% of Democrats to Hillary’s 7% of Republicans, a tiny bit worse. And Trump gets 9% of Democrats to Hillary’s 8% of Republicans, which is a bit worse, although they all cluster rather closely together and the differences are not so very significant.</p>
<p>Against Hillary, Cruz gets 5% of the black vote, but Rubio gets 9% of the black vote. Could be significant, I suppose. Bush gets 6% of the black vote against her. And Trump? 4% of the black vote. Again–except perhaps for Rubio–they all are very similar, but Trump does slightly worse.</p></blockquote>
<p>More <a href="http://neoneocon.com/2015/12/17/democrats-for-trump/" rel="nofollow">here</a> about how polls do not support the idea of Democrats for Trump.</p>
<p>As for people calling in and saying they want to change their registration in Ohio, that could just as easily mean that some Democrats want to crossover and vote for Trump in order to harm the GOP, in classic open primary fashion. In other words, we have no idea whatsoever what their motivation is. It certainly does NOT seem to translate into Democratic support for Trump in the general against Hillary.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Ann		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-988889</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ann]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 20:09:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-988889</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Neo:

I know he later defined his use of the term, but he&#039;s on video saying it without that definition. That&#039;s what&#039;s going to appear in ads.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neo:</p>
<p>I know he later defined his use of the term, but he&#8217;s on video saying it without that definition. That&#8217;s what&#8217;s going to appear in ads.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-988884</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 20:04:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-988884</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Charlie Adams is just parroting the usual propaganda about what neocons are, which is a bunch of absurd generalizations based on very little.  I&#039;ve written many many posts about neocons and the different ways to define them and the differences among them, which can be found in the &quot;neocon&quot; category of this blog.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Charlie Adams is just parroting the usual propaganda about what neocons are, which is a bunch of absurd generalizations based on very little.  I&#8217;ve written many many posts about neocons and the different ways to define them and the differences among them, which can be found in the &#8220;neocon&#8221; category of this blog.</p>
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		<title>
		By: K-E		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/03/05/we-have-some-more-primariescaucuses-today/#comment-988883</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K-E]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Mar 2016 20:04:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=57873#comment-988883</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Okay, Nick, if you didn&#039;t like that, what about the news from Ohio:

“We are seeing something this election cycle I’ve never seen before to this degree,” said board Chairman Mark Munroe, who’s also the county Republican chairman. “Every day I take phone calls or get voice messages from people saying they’ve been Democrats all their life and they’ve had it. They want to vote for Donald Trump. I’m surprised at the volume of inquiries we’re getting. It’s remarkable.”

A number of Democrats taking a Republican ballot when voting early at the board “say they want to vote for Trump,” said Joyce Kale-Pesta, Mahoning County Board of Elections director.

About 7,000 Mahoning County voters have cast early votes. Early voting started Feb. 17 and ends March 14, the day before the primary.

Of those 7,000, about 14 percent were Democrats who voted Republican, Kale-Pesta said. That’s about 1,000 so far.

The percentage of Democrats switching parties will grow even more, said board Vice Chairman David Betras, who also is the county Democratic chairman.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Okay, Nick, if you didn&#8217;t like that, what about the news from Ohio:</p>
<p>“We are seeing something this election cycle I’ve never seen before to this degree,” said board Chairman Mark Munroe, who’s also the county Republican chairman. “Every day I take phone calls or get voice messages from people saying they’ve been Democrats all their life and they’ve had it. They want to vote for Donald Trump. I’m surprised at the volume of inquiries we’re getting. It’s remarkable.”</p>
<p>A number of Democrats taking a Republican ballot when voting early at the board “say they want to vote for Trump,” said Joyce Kale-Pesta, Mahoning County Board of Elections director.</p>
<p>About 7,000 Mahoning County voters have cast early votes. Early voting started Feb. 17 and ends March 14, the day before the primary.</p>
<p>Of those 7,000, about 14 percent were Democrats who voted Republican, Kale-Pesta said. That’s about 1,000 so far.</p>
<p>The percentage of Democrats switching parties will grow even more, said board Vice Chairman David Betras, who also is the county Democratic chairman.</p>
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