The problem for Cruz is that Trump has pretty much cemented in the 33% of Republicans that, if they were reasonably sane, would already be his, and he can’t go anywhere without them. His only hope is to stop Trump, and even then, many of Trump’s voters have been conditioned to reflexively hate Cruz by Trump himself.

Rubio has the far easier path in that he only has to attack Cruz until Kasich quits. With his votes, he will quickly be in solid second place.

So now both Trump and Rubio will rightly see Cruz as their biggest threat and both will continue to focus their attacks on him, and it will almost all be personal since he’s pretty squeaky clean politically.

Unfortunately, unless something big and unexpected occurs, I see a brokered convention with the Establishment screwing it’s base, which is much bigger and more powerful than ever – again.

The result could be open revolt.

1. Neither Cruz nor Rubio has any incentive to leave the race at this point. They’re doing well enough to think they could win, and while one of them could benefit if the other dropped out, it’s too early to do so. This may change in six weeks or so.

2. Rubio’s term as Senator ends in January 2017, and he’s not running for re-election (and can’t, under Florida law). Unlike Cruz, who can return to his Senate seat, this may hurt his options.

3. While both Cruz and Rubio have their good points, they both have significant weaknesses. I will not detail them here, so as not to derail the thread.

4. If either Cruz or Rubio eventually gets the nomination, how do they appeal to Trump supporters?

5. Not only has The National Review come out against Trump, but just recently Jon Gabriel, editor-in-chief of ricochet.com has stated that the Republican National Committee should cut Trump loose. Holy crackers!

6. I’m not a member of ricochet.com, but I check that website often. Read the post yourself, and then all the various comments, and judge for yourself:

https://ricochet.com/time-for-the-rnc-to-cut-trump-loose/

7. Nevertheless, Trump does have support from conservative pundits, ranging from Pat Buchanan, Ann Coulter, John Derbyshire, Mark Steyn, and Howie Carr (WRKO, a really big deal in New England). I’m sure there are others I don’t know about.

8. The Democratic nominee, whether it’s Hillary, Bernie, or some other, can be beaten in November. One just has to try.

9. Maybe it’s just not their year, for all the other varied candidates. Maybe events are showing that nationalism, populism, and anti-immigration are the way to go.

And as I said few weeks back, we’re long lost twins of different parents – except for that ballet stuff, but I do love watching long, athletic legs in graceful motion engaged in any activity at all.

😉

How much damage, if any, is this going to do to the Cruz campaign?

That’s not the “they” I was talking about. The “they” in my sentence (“their real enemy”) is the two immediately preceding. In other words, Cruz and Rubio’s real enemy.

I said that back in early August. Conservatives who support Trump instead of Cruz are proving they never meant what they said all those years when they were sighing, “Oh, if only we had a smart, articulate person who could articulate conservative principles, that person would be the one who we would support. And don’t talk to me about ‘electability’!”

Pretty ironic, eh? Now some of those same people say, “Well, Trump’s not a conservative, but I don’t care because I like the way he gives the finger to the establishment and besides, he’s electable!” (when in fact the latter is almost certainly not true).

To make such a character into the President of the United States would be the epitome of immorality, is my point.