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	Comments on: The hype about how Trump could win: what are the facts?	</title>
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		<title>
		By: J.J.		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954879</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[J.J.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 20:58:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954879</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Kyndyll G.: &quot;J.J., I wish I knew. I think the whole world has gone mad. But one shudders at what Bernie will come up with to separate people from what they worked their whole lives for.&quot;

Drat, I hoped you would have some good ideas. IMO, the awful truth is that there  is no place to escape to unless you are very rich. 

We have few options except to fight to stop candidates like Bernie and Hillary from getting elected. I&#039;m feeling almost as desperate as I did in 1979 under Carter. I don&#039;t see a Reagan among the GOP hopefuls, but anyone of them along with a GOP Congress (Reagan had to deal with a democrat Congress) could at least stem the leftward tide. We must all fight in what ever ways we can. Volunteer, write e-mails, make phone calls, talk to your neighbors, join an activist movement like Heritage/Judicial Watch/TEA Party/etc., become an activist ala Eric&#039;s suggestions, and ??? It&#039;s time for all good men and women to come to the aid of their party. :-)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kyndyll G.: &#8220;J.J., I wish I knew. I think the whole world has gone mad. But one shudders at what Bernie will come up with to separate people from what they worked their whole lives for.&#8221;</p>
<p>Drat, I hoped you would have some good ideas. IMO, the awful truth is that there  is no place to escape to unless you are very rich. </p>
<p>We have few options except to fight to stop candidates like Bernie and Hillary from getting elected. I&#8217;m feeling almost as desperate as I did in 1979 under Carter. I don&#8217;t see a Reagan among the GOP hopefuls, but anyone of them along with a GOP Congress (Reagan had to deal with a democrat Congress) could at least stem the leftward tide. We must all fight in what ever ways we can. Volunteer, write e-mails, make phone calls, talk to your neighbors, join an activist movement like Heritage/Judicial Watch/TEA Party/etc., become an activist ala Eric&#8217;s suggestions, and ??? It&#8217;s time for all good men and women to come to the aid of their party. 🙂</p>
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		<title>
		By: jayteee		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954869</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jayteee]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 20:20:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954869</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I have to reiterate what many others are saying. Trump&#039;s support in my area comes from the hardly-ever-vote types who likes his bluster and fame. Not a single Democrat I&#039;ve met likes him. And 80 percent of Republican acquaintances hate him, too. I NEVER vote Democrat --- and won&#039;t in 2016. But I&#039;ll never vote for Trump. He&#039;s an amoral, narcissistic, thin-skinned daddy&#039;s boy who has bankrupted four companies. He&#039;s just a loud, brash brand in search of a product. Right now that product is &quot;candidate.&quot;

For what it&#039;s worth, my old mother, a liberal Democrat, can&#039;t stand Hillary and likes Rubio. She&#039;s repulsed by Cruz and Trump. Cruz is great on paper but he can&#039;t communicate without a high-pitched phony televangelist whine that alienates even many Republicans.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have to reiterate what many others are saying. Trump&#8217;s support in my area comes from the hardly-ever-vote types who likes his bluster and fame. Not a single Democrat I&#8217;ve met likes him. And 80 percent of Republican acquaintances hate him, too. I NEVER vote Democrat &#8212; and won&#8217;t in 2016. But I&#8217;ll never vote for Trump. He&#8217;s an amoral, narcissistic, thin-skinned daddy&#8217;s boy who has bankrupted four companies. He&#8217;s just a loud, brash brand in search of a product. Right now that product is &#8220;candidate.&#8221;</p>
<p>For what it&#8217;s worth, my old mother, a liberal Democrat, can&#8217;t stand Hillary and likes Rubio. She&#8217;s repulsed by Cruz and Trump. Cruz is great on paper but he can&#8217;t communicate without a high-pitched phony televangelist whine that alienates even many Republicans.</p>
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		<title>
		By: neo-neocon		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954851</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[neo-neocon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 18:45:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954851</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[AT:

&quot;Worthless&quot;?  Hardly.  As I wrote in the post, &lt;i&gt;all&lt;/i&gt; of the polls (both of registered voters and of likely voters) show the same trend re Trump, which is that he does the worst of all the leading GOP candidates against Hillary.  Also, I wrote, &quot; One poll or another tends not to tell the whole story, but the average tells you a lot more, although nothing’s infallible.&quot;

The most recent poll, the one that I linked to, happens to have asked registered voters about the head-to-heads against Hillary, and for the Republican primary questions they asked likely voters in the Republican primaries.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>AT:</p>
<p>&#8220;Worthless&#8221;?  Hardly.  As I wrote in the post, <i>all</i> of the polls (both of registered voters and of likely voters) show the same trend re Trump, which is that he does the worst of all the leading GOP candidates against Hillary.  Also, I wrote, &#8221; One poll or another tends not to tell the whole story, but the average tells you a lot more, although nothing’s infallible.&#8221;</p>
<p>The most recent poll, the one that I linked to, happens to have asked registered voters about the head-to-heads against Hillary, and for the Republican primary questions they asked likely voters in the Republican primaries.</p>
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		<title>
		By: AT		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954841</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AT]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 17:45:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954841</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Your GE analysis is worthless because you didn&#039;t differentiate between polls of all eligible voters and likely voters.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your GE analysis is worthless because you didn&#8217;t differentiate between polls of all eligible voters and likely voters.</p>
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		By: Eric		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954831</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 16:28:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954831</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Orson:
&quot;Does the voter vote the person? Or the issues of the campaign?&quot;

Those are &#039;vote &lt;i&gt;for&lt;/i&gt;&#039; constructions.

The third consideration is voting &lt;i&gt;against&lt;/i&gt;.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Orson:<br />
&#8220;Does the voter vote the person? Or the issues of the campaign?&#8221;</p>
<p>Those are &#8216;vote <i>for</i>&#8216; constructions.</p>
<p>The third consideration is voting <i>against</i>.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Harun		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954829</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Harun]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 16:07:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954829</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Occam&#039;s Razor.

Ignore the politics. Which candidate is more exciting to write about, talk about, and will generate more clicks for the media?

Trump.

So, beyond helping Hillary, they&#039;d still push Trump.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Occam&#8217;s Razor.</p>
<p>Ignore the politics. Which candidate is more exciting to write about, talk about, and will generate more clicks for the media?</p>
<p>Trump.</p>
<p>So, beyond helping Hillary, they&#8217;d still push Trump.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Kyndyll G		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954824</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyndyll G]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 15:05:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954824</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Moneyrunner, most of us here still see Trump as a joke. He appeals to LIVs and angry people who don&#039;t care that Trump is a loudmouthed wrecking ball because they want to stick it to the GOP and burn the system down. 

What Trump can do is read a crowd. The birther thing didn&#039;t get it done for him before but he stumbled onto immigration this time around and has gotten every mile out of it that he can, despite having no real plan, no cohesive platform or anything else. Mainly,  he gets a positive response from flapping his gums and being aggressive and offensive. We&#039;re all sick of PC, but Trump is not anti-PC - he&#039;s just a big, loud, obnoxious bully. He doesn&#039;t care if he eventually crosses the line and derails his campaign, because this is a game - he&#039;s not a politician and when he fumbles this, he&#039;ll go back to his day job. 

I get the &quot;not a politician&quot; appeal, but this insensitive, attention-whoring, egotistical turd would be destructive as the leader of a world power. I would vote for him over Hilary or Bernie only because they might be worse.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moneyrunner, most of us here still see Trump as a joke. He appeals to LIVs and angry people who don&#8217;t care that Trump is a loudmouthed wrecking ball because they want to stick it to the GOP and burn the system down. </p>
<p>What Trump can do is read a crowd. The birther thing didn&#8217;t get it done for him before but he stumbled onto immigration this time around and has gotten every mile out of it that he can, despite having no real plan, no cohesive platform or anything else. Mainly,  he gets a positive response from flapping his gums and being aggressive and offensive. We&#8217;re all sick of PC, but Trump is not anti-PC &#8211; he&#8217;s just a big, loud, obnoxious bully. He doesn&#8217;t care if he eventually crosses the line and derails his campaign, because this is a game &#8211; he&#8217;s not a politician and when he fumbles this, he&#8217;ll go back to his day job. </p>
<p>I get the &#8220;not a politician&#8221; appeal, but this insensitive, attention-whoring, egotistical turd would be destructive as the leader of a world power. I would vote for him over Hilary or Bernie only because they might be worse.</p>
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		By: Moneyrunner		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954811</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Moneyrunner]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 13:05:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954811</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think the author is right that the media will always try to support the Republican that will be easiest for the Democrat to beat.  And she’s also right that the Left believes that that person is Trump.  And they have polls prove it.   I just think that the media is as wrong about the election as they were about Obama in 2008 … and Trump a few months ago.  And I don’t think the polls reflect the general election as much as the primary campaign.  

What impresses me about Trump is his mastery of sales, managing to transform himself from a joke that no one believed in, to the leader in the Republican race.  Managing to transform “gaffes” into winning campaign issues.  Managing to transform ultra-high negatives into positives.  &lt;a href=&quot;http://moneyrunner.blogspot.com/2016/01/it-looks-as-if-trump-is-persuading-his.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;(see this poll)&lt;/a&gt;.  And with a few simple comments effectively neutralizing a meaningful part of Hillary’s appeal … the War on Women.  

Trump’s first job is to win the nomination and he’s focused on that.  If nominated he’ll focus on his next goal and that’s beating either Hillary or Bernie.  At that point the polls will be more meaningful.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the author is right that the media will always try to support the Republican that will be easiest for the Democrat to beat.  And she’s also right that the Left believes that that person is Trump.  And they have polls prove it.   I just think that the media is as wrong about the election as they were about Obama in 2008 … and Trump a few months ago.  And I don’t think the polls reflect the general election as much as the primary campaign.  </p>
<p>What impresses me about Trump is his mastery of sales, managing to transform himself from a joke that no one believed in, to the leader in the Republican race.  Managing to transform “gaffes” into winning campaign issues.  Managing to transform ultra-high negatives into positives.  <a href="http://moneyrunner.blogspot.com/2016/01/it-looks-as-if-trump-is-persuading-his.html" rel="nofollow">(see this poll)</a>.  And with a few simple comments effectively neutralizing a meaningful part of Hillary’s appeal … the War on Women.  </p>
<p>Trump’s first job is to win the nomination and he’s focused on that.  If nominated he’ll focus on his next goal and that’s beating either Hillary or Bernie.  At that point the polls will be more meaningful.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Michael P		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954804</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael P]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 12:05:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954804</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The MSM wants Trump as the putatively Republican candidate because it would be a win-win for them.  He is the weakest against Clinton, but he is also the most aligned with the MSM&#039;s policy preferences.  See, for example, his history of supporting mostly Democrats, backing big government, and crass corporatism.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The MSM wants Trump as the putatively Republican candidate because it would be a win-win for them.  He is the weakest against Clinton, but he is also the most aligned with the MSM&#8217;s policy preferences.  See, for example, his history of supporting mostly Democrats, backing big government, and crass corporatism.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Orson		</title>
		<link>https://thenewneo.com/2016/01/19/the-hype-about-how-trump-could-win-what-are-the-facts/#comment-954799</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Orson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2016 11:13:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://neoneocon.com/?p=56236#comment-954799</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Does the voter vote the person? Or the issues of the campaign?

This question goes to the root of the thread.

Nate Silver finds that if it is the person, Trump will do worst. On the other hand, we&#039;ve all seen him take the right and winning side in matters like defense and terrorism, as well as immigration.

Silver sums the available data up this way:

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;b&gt;Head-to-head polls of hypothetical general election matchups have almost no predictive power at this stage of the campaign&lt;/b&gt; [LINK to more in original], but for what it’s worth, Trump tends to fare relatively poorly in those too. On average, 2 in polls since Nov. 1, Trump trails Clinton by 5 percentage points, while Clinton and Marco Rubio are tied.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

Richard Nixon was unpopular to look at - yet he still won the presidency in 1968 and 1972. And he wasn&#039;t a popular and successful television personality for a decade, like Trump.

Thus, I see no reason to call Trump out at this point.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does the voter vote the person? Or the issues of the campaign?</p>
<p>This question goes to the root of the thread.</p>
<p>Nate Silver finds that if it is the person, Trump will do worst. On the other hand, we&#8217;ve all seen him take the right and winning side in matters like defense and terrorism, as well as immigration.</p>
<p>Silver sums the available data up this way:</p>
<blockquote><p>
<b>Head-to-head polls of hypothetical general election matchups have almost no predictive power at this stage of the campaign</b> [LINK to more in original], but for what it’s worth, Trump tends to fare relatively poorly in those too. On average, 2 in polls since Nov. 1, Trump trails Clinton by 5 percentage points, while Clinton and Marco Rubio are tied.
</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/" rel="nofollow ugc">http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/</a></p>
<p>Richard Nixon was unpopular to look at &#8211; yet he still won the presidency in 1968 and 1972. And he wasn&#8217;t a popular and successful television personality for a decade, like Trump.</p>
<p>Thus, I see no reason to call Trump out at this point.</p>
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