Neo, yes turn out is also key. Especially among the dead and the illegal alien voters. The dems will find as many of those as they can in the swing states. They will also have party operators trolling the streets of major cities in swing states offering “pocket money” to anyone they can get to vote the way they tell them to. That’s how they swing those states into their column. 🙂 On the other hand, the GOP will do no such thing because they will follow the law. Poll watchers is the only weapon the GOP has against fraud as far as I know.

Then there are the disaffected conservatives and evangelicals. How many of those are going to stay home if Trump is the candidate? A lot, is my guess.

The Trump candidacy has benefited the Bush candidacy, also.

They are ALL thirty to forty years behind the immigration wave.

They vote, they think, they opine — about something that they have no direct knowledge of.

The MSM keeps them in the blind.

The MSM never brings up the Latino on Black race war — in the LA streets. That’s strictly a Southern Californian newswpaper story.

The MSM never brings up the absolute insanity of Mexicans running riot all over the police blotter — endless petty crimes — endless extremely violent crimes.

The MSM never brings up the gangster-racketeer schemes to shakedown even legal Mexican immigrants for protection monies — lest something happen to their virginal sisters — or their mother — or their grandparents — back in the old country. This is a HUGE racket for the criminal gangs. It’s also the source of no end of Mexican criminality inside the US of A. For unless the fellow engages in criminal activity – he has not a hope in he!! in raising the protection funds.

This dynamic is setting the stage — EVENTUALLY — for an all out invasion of Mexico — this time by the United States. Such a war will occur as a last recourse — as it finally becomes clear that regime change is a prerequisite to end this soft invasion.

The Muslim powers dream for such a time as they could invade Israel with such softness. Demographic victory in spite of cultural defeat.

As posted before: Jeb Bush couldn’t defeat a baby rattle.

Jeb Bush is the BIG threat to the GOP at the polls.

That’s been obvious from the start.

Trump is being elevated by the MSM — and next year he will be trashed by the MSM.

It’s the way they roll.

What we have are two un-serious — not viable — candidates sucking all of the oxygen out of the room.

I’ve said it, said it, said it, Immigration – LEGAL immigration is the big issue for 2016.

The second big issue is trade with Red China and the Third World generally.

BHO is turning America into Brazil.

%%%

It must be a religious faith: but far, far, far, too many hold to the idea that with some sugar and spices we can turn Third Worlders into highly productive Americans — just like things happened a century ago.

But, Third Worlders come from societies that are at the global norm IQ wise.

This has a direct impact on their economic productivity, how fast they can acculturate, how fast they can pick up American English, how fast they can become wise voters, … everything.

European IQs norm around 95 to 100. The lower number is typical of repressed European societies with lousy pre-natal nutrition and no small amount of in-breeding.

( The large local — immobile villages give the false impression that DNA variability is high when — in fact — everybody is cousin to the other. This was the situation in Japan, Korea, and China right up until their transition.)

The global IQ norms to only 85 — and goes a LONG way towards explaining why the Peace Corps had / has such difficulty in getting economic and cultural ‘traction’ wherever do-gooding has been attempted.

With half-a-century of effort — the same tales keep coming up — and back: the Third Worlders sabotage their own — cousin upon cousin — time and time again.

It’s their crabs-in-a-bucket culture. True Socialism means that NOBODY breaks out into the sunlight.

Prize livestock is routinely ‘assassinated’ by the cousins — as seeing a hard working fellow make a success of himself is really too much to bear.

This culture is PERVASIVE in the Third World. Race, skin, religion — they matter not.

This tic goes a LONG WAY towards explaining why Socialism has such a pull on the emotions inside the US of A. It’s the ancient way.

As any cook could tell you, you dare not toss all of the flour in the pot in a single jolt. It can’t blend in.

But that’s what’s up with unlimited LEGAL immigration. Instead of families adjusting to their new land — they simply transplant everything — culturally — that was backward — from back home.

You end up with enclaves as bizarre as the Beverly Hillbillies – without the jokes, the money, and the comprehension of English.

Turnout is also key in determining the winner.

The first is the division among voters. According to Gallup:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/166787/liberal-self-identification-edges-new-high-2013.aspx?version=print
Conservatives = 38%
Moderates = 34%
Liberals = 23%
I consider these numbers a bit suspect, but it’s what we have to work with. In order to win an election a Republican candidate must get all 38% conservative votes and 13% of the moderate (I call them LIVs) votes. In 2012 Obama it appears that Obama won 28% of the moderate vote in order to win. It appears to me that the moderates are more liberal than they are willing to own up to. It also appears obvious to me that no candidate that is seen to be too far out of the mainstream can win those moderate votes. The dems and their communications wing, the MSM, will always cast a good conservative who runs to the right as being too far out of the mainstream. That is why the GOP establishment worries about looking too conservative. The dems never tell the voters what their real aims are. That is, until Bernie Sanders came along. Bernie is preaching the socialist line and appealing to the liberal base. In the general I suspect he would crash and burn among the “moderates.”

The other issue of electability is the Electoral College. The GOP and dems have a certain number of states that they can count on to go their way. Neither party can gain enough electoral votes to win with just those states. They must get the electoral votes of enough of the 11 swing states that determine the winner. The eleven swing states are detailed here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state
With this being the case, both parties will concentrate most of their energy and money on those eleven states because That is where the election will be won.

Electability comes down to those two issues. Can the candidate garner enough moderate votes and can the candidate win the requisite number of swing states. All else is merely a side show.

for the reasons already given. California is an anomoly, so leftist that even a conservative is welcomed by the GOP. But while I’d be happy to be proven wrong, the support in the Senate and House for McConnell and Boehner demonstrates where the GOP leadership’s heart lies.